Fantasy Football Daily Fantasy

Print

Week 17 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Jordan Love ($6,200) + 2 or 3 of Jayden Reed ($5,900), Romeo Doubs ($5,100), Dontayvion Wicks ($3,900), and Tucker Kraft ($3,900)

Love has reached 19 DraftKings points just once in his last nine games. He’s topped 21.2 DK points only twice all season.

But it’s not his fault. Love has been plenty efficient this year. His 8.2 yards per pass attempt ranks fifth among 35 qualifying QBs. His 6.3% TD rate is good for sixth.

The problem has been volume. Love is averaging just 29.5 pass attempts per game on the season and 23.8 over his last six games. It’s been partly by design: The Packers have a -3.8% pass rate over expected over their last six. And it’s been partly dictated by game script: Green Bay has won five of those last six.

But there’s a chance we get a volume spike from Love this weekend. The Packers are 1.5-point underdogs in Minnesota. If they jump out to a lead, they’ll likely stay run-leaning. But if the Vikings get ahead early – which is well within the range of outcomes – the Packers could be forced to open up the offense.

There’d be plenty of upside to Packers stacks in that case. Beyond Love’s strong efficiency, the matchup is nice against a Vikings pass defense that’s been proven beatable by quality attacks. Minnesota has allowed the following passing lines this season:

• Brock Purdy: 319-1-1
• Jordan Love: 389-4-3
• Jared Goff: 280-2-0
• Matt Stafford:  279-4-1
• Caleb Williams: 340-2-0
• Geno Smith: 314-3-2

It’s always challenging to figure out who to stack Love with. But the target tree is a bit more condensed this week assuming WR Christian Watson is out. And Reed, Doubs, Wicks, and Kraft are so cheap that you can stack two or even three of them with Love and get a good return on investment.

One more reason to like this stack: This game will be played indoors, while most of the other games on this slate have weather concerns.

Also consider:

• Baker Mayfield ($6,900) + Mike Evans ($7,500) + Jalen McMillan ($4,600)
• Mason Rudolph ($5,000) + Calvin Ridley ($5,500) + Chig Okonkwo ($3,600)

Running Backs

Breece Hall, Jets ($6,300)

It didn’t show up in the box score (14.0 DK points), but Hall was back in a workhorse role last week:

• 79% snap rate
• 73% route rate
• 70% carry share
• 14% target share

Hall is once again off this week’s injury report, so I’m expecting him to play a similar role on Sunday. He’s $800 cheaper than he was back in Week 1 and $1,500 below his peak price.

Hall gets a Bills defense that ranks 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Buffalo has surrendered 4.5 yards per carry to RBs on the season and, just as importantly for Hall, the second most catches and the most receiving yards to RBs.

Kendre Miller, Saints ($5,500)

Save this one for large-field tournaments, but this is a potential bounce-back spot for Miller after the Week 16 dud.

He never had much of a chance with the Saints 14-point underdogs in Green Bay. Miller wound up with just eight carries and two targets, while RBs Jordan Mims and Jamaal Williams combined for seven carries and eight targets.

Interim HC Darren Rizzi said afterward that the plan was to get Miller more work – but that plan got scrapped when the Saints fell behind by three scores in the second quarter.

Game script shouldn’t be a problem this weekend. The Saints are only 1.5-point underdogs at home for an equally-dead Raiders squad. Las Vegas ranks 21st in run defense DVOA and 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

I think there’s a chance we get something like 15 carries and a few targets from Miller this week.

Also consider:

• Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,600)
• Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($7,900)
• Bucky Irving, Buccaneers ($6,700)
• Aaron Jones, Vikings ($6,200)
• Alexander Mattison, Raiders ($5,600)
• Tyjae Spears, Titans ($5,400)

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, Panthers ($5,700)

Thielen was looking like a nice tournament play even before RB Chuba Hubbard landed on IR on Saturday.

The Panthers are eight-point underdogs to the Buccaneers, who rank second in pass rate over expected against. Carolina already projected to throw it a bunch in this one – and Hubbard’s absence should push them even further toward the pass.

Young threw it a season-high 46 times in an overtime loss to the Bucs a few weeks ago. Thielen hauled in eight of 10 targets for 99 yards and a score in that one. He’s totaled 24 targets in the three games since.

Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,500)

Ridley has taken a backseat to TE Chig Okonkwo over the last two weeks, getting out-targeted 21 to 10. 

That doesn’t mean that will continue to be the case, though. In fact, we have a much larger sample of Ridley being the top dog in this passing game. He averaged 9.0 targets across the first seven games post-DeAndre Hopkins trade.

The pendulum could swing back toward Ridley in Sunday’s excellent matchup against the Jaguars’ 27th-ranked WR defense. Jacksonville has allowed six games of 25+ DraftKings points to WRs this season.

Ridley has topped 24 DK points three times this year.

Also consider:

• Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,300)
• Mike Evans, Buccaneers ($7,500)
• Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($6,800)
• Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,100)
• Jayden Reed, Packers ($5,900)
• Jalen McMillan, Buccaneers ($4,600)
• Xavier Legette, Panthers ($4,400)
• Jalen Coker, Panthers ($4,300)
• Dontayvion Wicks, Packers ($3,900)

Tight Ends

The first decision at TE this week is: Brock Bowers or not? He’s $1,000 more expensive than any other TE on the slate and leads the position in ceiling.

He’s plenty capable of scoring 20+ DraftKings points again this week, but he might need to go north of 25 to really pay off this price tag. I’ll be betting against that in what figures to be an ugly game against the Saints.

A couple of cheap options to consider:

Tucker Kraft, Packers ($3,900)

He’s not a strong volume bet in a loaded Packers pass-catching corps. But Kraft brings big-play and TD upside. He’s averaging 14.0 yards per catch and has scored seven times this season. He’s hit 13 DraftKings points five times and scored 16.8+ three times.

Chig Okonkwo, Titans ($3,600)

It looks like $3,700 Jake Ferguson will pull ownership away from Okonkwo. Ferguson theoretically has nice target upside with WR CeeDee Lamb out. But the Cowboys offense could really implode this week against a tough Eagles defense.

I prefer the ceiling on Okonkwo, who boasts 4.5 speed and has racked up 21 targets over the last two weeks. He also gets a much better matchup than Ferguson against the Jaguars, who rank 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

• T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($4,500)
• Payne Durham, Buccaneers ($2,900)

Defense/Special Teams

• Colts ($3,500)
• Dolphins ($3,200)
• Eagles ($3,100)
• Packers ($2,700)
• Raiders ($2,600)
• Browns ($2,400)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.