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Week 15 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100) + Tyreek Hill ($7,400) + Jaylen Waddle ($5,700)

There are a few reasons to believe that the Dolphins-Texans game could produce multiple tournament-winning scores:

1. There are explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball. Hill, Waddle, De’Von Achane, Nico Collins, Tank Dell (I think).
2. These have been pass-heavy offenses lately. With their run game struggling, the Dolphins have registered a +10.6% pass rate over expected over the last five weeks – third highest in the league. The Texans, meanwhile, have gone +11.9% pass rate over expected in three games since Collins returned. There could be a ton of pass attempts in this game.
3. The game will be played indoors in Houston – always nice at this time of the year.

Tagovailoa has coupled the increased pass volume with some sparkling play lately. Over his last five games, he’s:

• Completed 74.6% of his passes
• Averaged 7.7 yards per attempt
• Averaged 302 passing yards per game
• Tossed 12 TDs vs. just 1 INT

Tua has topped 23.5 DraftKings points in four straight games – and 26.5 in three straight.

It’s been tough to figure out who to stack Tua with this season. You can certainly consider Achane or Jonnu Smith. But Houston has been weakest against WRs, ranking 27th in adjusted fantasy points allowed (vs. 5th against RBs and 9th against TEs).

Hill and Waddle have both topped 20 DK points in two of their last three games.

Aaron Rodgers ($5,400) + Davante Adams ($6,900) + Garrett Wilson ($6,500)

This feels a bit point-chasey after Rodgers’ strong Week 14. But there are multiple reasons to like this stack in Week 15:

1. Value: Rodgers (QB2), Wilson (WR2), and Adams (WR7) are all top seven dollars-per-point values at their respective positions.
2. Ownership: Wilson and Adams are projected for modest 10% ownership, while Rodgers checks in at 2%.
3. Matchup: The Jets face a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA, 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs, and 28th in adjusted points allowed to WRs.
4. Passing Game Concentration: Since Adams arrived in Week 7, he and Wilson have accounted for 54% of the Jets’ targets, 52% of the receptions, 64% of the receiving yards, and 45% of the receiving TDs.

Also consider:

• Josh Allen ($8,500) + Amari Cooper ($5,300)
• Joe Burrow ($7,300) + Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400) + Tee Higgins ($6,800)
• Kyler Murray ($6,000) + Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,500) + Trey McBride ($6,000)

Running Backs

There are four strong RB plays in the $6K range this week that I’ll be building around:

James Conner, Cardinals ($6,600)

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($6,500)

Brian Robinson, Commanders ($6,200)

Rico Dowdle, Cowboys ($6,100)

Hubbard (36% projected ownership) looks most popular, so be thoughtful about how you’re using him in lineups. Conner and Dowdle are projected for reasonable 20-22% ownership.

Robinson looks like the relatively forgotten man in this quartet, with 13% projected ownership. That might make him the best tournament play.

Robinson’s Commanders have a 25.75-point implied total vs. a Saints team sitting 31st in run defense DVOA and 29th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. 

More importantly, the Commanders are 7.5-point favorites. That’s key for Robinson, who thrives in positive gamescript. In six healthy games that Washington has won this season, Robinson has averaged:

• 16.3 carries
• 84 rushing yards
• 0.7 TDs

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) and David Montgomery ($7,000), Lions

These guys are both projecting for sub-5% ownership, despite:

1. The Lions sporting a 28.75-point implied total (2nd highest on the slate).
2. A matchup against the Bills’ 31st-ranked RB defense.

Buffalo has particularly struggled in two areas against RBs: Allowing big runs and pass-catching production.

The Bills have coughed up the sixth most runs of 10+ yards and own the league’s worst explosive rush rate allowed.

They also rank bottom three in catches, receiving yards, and receiving TDs allowed to RBs.

That defensive profile sets up a bit better for Gibbs, who’s a bigger explosive-play threat than Montgomery. 

But it’s worth noting that Montgomery has just two fewer catches than Gibbs this season.

Both guys are excellent tournament plays, especially in large-field contests.

Also consider:

• Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,600)
• Derrick Henry, Ravens ($8,300)
• Chase Brown, Bengals ($7,200)

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($6,900) and Garrett Wilson ($6,500), Jets

I mentioned these guys in the Stacks section above – but I want to highlight them again because I think they’re both excellent plays even outside of Rodgers stacks.

Adams and Wilson have both been getting awesome usage lately. It’s just been masked a bit by Rodgers’ underwhelming play. 

Over the last five games, Adams has averaged 10.8 targets and ranks third among WRs in expected PPR points per game. Wilson trails closely behind, averaging 8.8 targets and ranking 15th in expected points per game.

So we have talented WRs getting great usage in a matchup against the Jaguars’ 28th-ranked WR defense. Priced under $7,000 and projected for just 10% ownership.

Elijah Moore, Browns ($5,000)

I’d planned on playing a lot of Jameis Winston stacks early in the week. But with WR Cedric Tillman out, TE David Njoku iffy, and potential weather concerns in Cleveland, I’ve backed off Browns stacks.

But I still like Moore as a one-off. The Tillman and Jeudy injuries only help his target upside – and he’s already seen 8+ targets in four of Winston’s six starts.

Moore also gets an excellent matchup against a Chiefs defense that’s sagged lately, particularly against slot receivers. No team has allowed more adjusted fantasy points to slots over the last five weeks than Kansas City. Moore has run 61% of his routes from the slot this season.

Also consider:

• Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,400)
• Nico Collins, Texans ($8,100)
• Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,800)
• Ladd McConkey, Chargers ($6,300)
• Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,900)
• Brian Thomas, Jaguars ($5,800)
• Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals ($5,500)
• Adam Thielen, Panthers ($5,400)

Tight Ends

It looks like a lot of the field will pay all the way up for Trey McBride ($6,000) or go cheap with Stone Smartt ($2,600) or Brenton Strange ($2,500).

I like all three guys, particularly McBride and Smartt. But we can differentiate our lineups by playing a mid-range TE. A couple of guys to consider:

Mark Andrews, Ravens ($4,100)

Yeah, we probably won’t get much passing volume from the Ravens against the Giants. But there’s a pretty good chance we’ll get 4+ TDs.

That’s a good fit for Andrews, who’s been much more of a TD-reliant play than a volume-based play this season. He’s topped five targets just twice all year but has seven TDs, including three over his last four games.

Dalton Schultz, Texans ($3,300)

I’ll confess: Schultz will be a tough name for me to click.

But he checks in as the second-best dollars-per-point value at TE and is projected for just 7% ownership.

Schultz is not an explosive player. But he’s seen seven targets in two of his last three games and 6+ targets in four of his last six. And I wrote above about the pass-heavy environment we might get in this Texans-Dolphins game.

Also consider:

• Hunter Henry, Patriots ($4,300)
• Zach Ertz, Commanders ($4,000)
• Jake Ferguson, Cowboys ($3,800)

Defense/Special Teams

• Ravens ($3,900)
• Chiefs ($3,700)
• Commanders ($3,400)
• Cardinals ($3,000)
• Chargers ($2,900)
• Browns ($2,200)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.