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Week 11 DraftKings Tournament Picks

Stacks

Josh Allen ($7,800) + Dawson Knox ($3,500)

Here’s how many total points have been scored in three Bills-Chiefs games over the last two seasons:

• 44
• 37
• 51

That’s a good representation of the range of outcomes in Sunday’s latest meeting between these AFC powerhouses. These are two quality defenses; and two offenses with shortcomings.

But when two elite QBs square off, there’s always shootout potential. And that makes Allen an intriguing tournament play at 4% projected ownership. He topped 30 DraftKings points in two of those last three games against the Chiefs.

Plus, Kansas City’s pass defense has not been as strong since losing CB Jaylen Watson.

#Chiefs with CB Jaylen Watson over the first 6 games:

61% completion rate allowed
6.7 yards per attempt allowed
7 TDs allowed
5 INTs#Chiefs without Watson over the last 3:

76% completion rate
6.9 yards per attempt
6 TDs
0 INTs

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 15, 2024

WR Khalil Shakir ($6,300) seems like the natural stacking partner with Allen. But I’m not in love with his ceiling in relation to his price. Shakir has never topped 23.5 DK points in a game and has gone over 20 in just one of nine games this season.

I’d rather stack Allen with Knox, who should get a big spike in playing time with TE Dalton Kincaid out and gets a plus matchup. The Chiefs rank ninth in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, reducing scoring at the position by 14%. But they rank 22nd vs. TEs, boosting scoring by 16%.

Drake Maye ($5,600) + Kayshon Boutte ($3,500) + Hunter Henry ($3,900)

Speaking of Josh Allen .. I see shades of his game in Drake Maye: a big-armed, aggressive passer who isn’t afraid to take off and run.

That skill set gives him the potential for games of 25+ DraftKings points, which makes him someone I want to play as long as he’s in this price range.

Maye is in a nice spot this weekend at home for a Rams team that’s on a short week and traveling across the country for an early kickoff. Los Angeles ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA and 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Boutte makes a ton of sense on paper as a cheap stacking partner with Maye. He’s run a route on 95% of Patriots pass plays over the last three weeks, drawing exactly six targets in all three games. Boutte owns a 15.9-yard average target depth on the season, so there’s big-play potential here. And the Rams rank:

• 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs
• 30th in adjusted points allowed to outside WRs (85% of Boutte’s routes have come outside)
• 19th in completion rate over expected allowed on throws 20+ yards downfield

The only issue is that Boutte is projected for 27% ownership. He’s fine to play in small-field tournaments but is probably a fade in larger fields in favor of Henry.

Henry was out-produced by teammate Austin Hooper last week but still drew a 16% target share. He’s now averaging 6.5 targets per game on a 19% share in QB Drake Maye's four full games, scoring 12.6 DK points in three of them. The Rams rank 19th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Also consider:

• Russell Wilson ($5,900) + George Pickens ($7,000) + Calvin Austin ($3,600)
• Jameis Winston ($5,500) + Cedric Tillman ($5,300) + Elijah Moore ($4,300)

Running Backs

As usual, you shouldn’t be looking to get crazy at RB. Christian McCaffrey ($8,300) and De’Von Achane ($7,200) are both excellent values, underpriced by about $1,000 each. Particularly in smaller-field tournaments, build around those two guys.

A couple of lower-owned RBs to consider:

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($7,300)

Detroit is implied for 30.5 points this week. There are TDs to be found here. And the Lions are 14-point favorites. So, as usual, this should be a run-heavy game.

That’s all good news for Gibbs, who went for 35.0 DraftKings points in Week 7 and 23.3 in Week 8, which was a 52-14 blowout win that might look similar to what we get from Detroit this week.

Gibbs is projected for 15% ownership. It’d be double that if he wasn’t priced $100 above Achane.

Kareem Hunt, Chiefs ($6,700)

It always catches my eye when one of our top values at RB is projected for low ownership. That’s the case with Hunt this week. He’s the fourth-best dollars-per-point value at this position but is projected for just 8% ownership.

Hunt has literally seen the most valuable role at RB over his last five games, ranking first in expected PPR points per game. He’s scored 21.7+ DraftKings points in three of those five.

Sunday brings a Bills defense that is susceptible on the ground and funnels action to RBs in the passing game. Buffalo has allowed 4.7 yards per carry to RBs and ranks dead last in catches (66), receiving yards (545), and receiving TDs (5) allowed to the position.

Also consider:

• Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,800)
• Ken Walker, Seahawks ($7,000)
• Audric Estime, Broncos ($4,500)

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson, Jets ($7,100)

Wilson dudded along with the rest of the Jets offense last week. But he’d scored 27.7+ DraftKings points in three of his previous five games. And no one wants to play him this week. We project Wilson for sub-5% ownership.

There’s nothing scary about his matchup with the Colts. Indianapolis ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA and 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. A WR has topped 20 DraftKings points against the Colts in five of their 10 games.

Cedric Tillman, Browns ($5,300)

I’ll be eating the 25% projected ownership on Tillman, who’s about $1,000 underpriced.

He’s topped 18 DraftKings points in each of his last three games since moving into a full-time role, including a spike of 28.9 in Week 8. Tillman has racked up 32 targets on a 13.2-yard average depth over those three games. CeeDee Lamb is the only WR to average more expected PPR points per game during that stretch.

Tillman gets a New Orleans secondary that recently shipped top CB Marshon Lattimore to Washington.

Also consider:

• Puka Nacua, Rams ($7,300)
• Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($6,800)
• D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks ($6,500)
• Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5,900)
• Jameson Williams, Lions ($5,800)
• Jakobi Meyers, Raiders ($5,600)
• Jauan Jennings, 49ers ($5,300)
• Ricky Pearsall, 49ers ($4,900)
• Elijah Moore, Browns ($4,300)
• Calvin Austin, Steelers ($3,600)
• Kayshon Boutte, Patriots ($3,500)

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($6,300)

Kelce has racked up 39 targets and averaged 26.1 expected PPR points per game over the last three weeks. Both marks rank No. 1, not just among TEs, but among TEs and WRs. Kelce’s 23.1 PPR points per game over that span ranks fourth among WRs and TEs.

Yet his $6,300 salary would rank just 16th among WRs. Kelce is significantly underpriced, making him worth using at either TE or Flex.

He gets a Bills pass defense on Sunday that’s weaker over the middle of the field than outside the numbers. Kelce’s last three receiving lines vs. Buffalo:

• 8-108-0
• 6-83-0
• 5-75-2

Also consider:

• George Kittle, 49ers ($6,000)
• T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($4,700)
• Taysom Hill, Saints ($4,500)
• Hunter Henry, Patriots ($3,900)
• Dawson Knox, Bills ($3,500)
• Davis Allen, Rams ($2,500)

Defense/Special Teams

• Lions ($3,800)
• Vikings ($3,700)
• Saints ($3,300)
• Broncos ($2,900)
• Jets ($2,800)
• Browns ($2,600)
• Bears ($2,400)
• Titans ($2,300)

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.