IDP Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 9
Dolphins Also in Focus ... Beyond Tua
This list of IDP waiver wire pickups is sorted by position, and then by priorty.
Of course, IDP leagues vary widely by depth, scoring rules, and lineup settings. So to get the best measure of who to pick up in your league, check your Free Agent Finder.
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Let’s Talk About David Long Jr.
I’m leading off with the Dolphins LB not necessarily to highlight him as a strong add. He might be that, but he’s here because his outlook’s a little complicated …
Playing Time Fluctuates Amid Injuries
Long played every snap of the first two games but left Week 3 early with a hamstring injury. That cost him the following contest.
He returned for Week 5 but played only 50% of snaps despite practicing in full that Friday and carrying no injury designation into the game.
After the Week 6 bye, Long went limited for every Week 7 practice and entered the game questionable because of a knee issue. He played 68% of snaps in that one.
This past week, though, found him off the injury report and playing 97% of snaps. Seems like he should be a good bet to stay in that territory, right?
There’s Another Risk Factor
Long might be set for full playing time going forward. But he’s also in the midst of his worst pro season.
Pro Football Focus has Long graded 96th among 97 non-edge LBs who have played at least 100 snaps. Long’s working on career-low grades in:
- Total defense
- Run defense
- Tackling
And the marks are bad across the board.
Long sits tied for the league lead in missed tackles at the position despite ranking just 54th among LBs in snaps played. He has missed 33.3% or more of his tackle opportunities in each of the past three games where he played more than 50% of the snaps.
Perhaps the knee that Long had repaired in the offseason – and has reportedly been “nursing” at times this year – has been a key issue.
Safe for This Week?
Although Long looks like an iffy longer-term bet, this should be a good week to start him.
He has produced 10+ tackles in three straight meetings with the Bills since arriving in Miami. That included 11 tackles (9 solo) with two for losses in Week 2 of this season.
It was the second time in those three games that Long tallied 2 tackles for loss against Buffalo.
So plan to use Long for Week 9, but remain skeptical for the longer term – especially if the defense continues to struggle.
Jeffery Simmons, DT, Tennessee Titans
Simmons finally delivered his second sack and QB hit of the season in Sunday’s loss to the Lions. But you should target him this week because of next Sunday’s matchup with the Patriots.
New England has been the fourth most friendly scoring matchup for D-linemen. That included 1.5 sacks allowed to Jets DT Quinnen Williams on Sunday.
If it’s Jacoby Brissett behind center, even better. No starting QB has taken pressure at a higher rate this season, according to PFF.
Daiyan Henley, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Henley played every snap in Sunday’s win over the Saints, just his second time doing so through seven games. Each of those two outings saw Henley collect 11+ tackles and a pass defensed.
Henley had posted just 4 total tackles each of the previous two weeks on decreased playing time: 76% and 81% snap shares.
Next comes a matchup with the Browns, who have been the league’s friendliest scoring matchup for LBs. Week 10 holds another strongly positive LB matchup in Tennessee.
Christian Elliss, LB, New England Patriots
As recently as Week 6, Elliss was playing just 35% of the defensive snaps. That has climbed quite a bit the past two weeks.
Elliss played 69% in the Week 7 loss to the Jaguars, tallying 9 tackles (4 solo) to rank second on the team.
He entered the starting lineup for Sunday’s win over the Jets and edged even LB Jahlani Tavai 84% to 79%. Elliss posted a team-high 9 tackles (3 solo), a sack (among 2 QB hits) and a pass defensed.
Now comes a matchup with the Titans, who have supplied the seventh-largest scoring boost to LBs this season.
Jack Gibbens, LB, Tennessee Titans
LB Jerome Baker was a healthy scratch for his first game after joining the Titans. Perhaps that changes after he gets a full practice week, but Tennessee didn’t make the Ernest Jones trade to get Baker. It was selling Jones (on an expiring contract) for more draft capital than it gave up to get him.
Baker has now had two teams go from starting him to quitting on him within the past year.
Gibbens is also no lock. He went from starting for the Titans most of last year to disappearing from this year’s defense once Jones was ready to play. But Gibbens played every snap in Sunday’s loss to the Lions. And he earned the best PFF grade of any Tennessee defender.
Titans coaches probably aren’t checking PFF grades before setting the next week’s lineup. But Gibbens has fared well in run defense throughout his young career and should at least be a good bet to keep his role against a run-heavy Patriots offense in Week 9.
Damar Hamlin, S, Buffalo Bills
According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed, only the Browns are supplying a bigger scoring boost to opponent DBs than the Dolphins are.
Much of that has obviously come with QB Tua Tagovailoa sidelined, but his Week 8 return found both Cardinals safeties collecting 11+ tackles.
Hamlin already benefited from the Miami effect once this season, tallying season highs in total tackles (10) and solos (8) back in Week 2. Since then he has also passes defensed in four of six games.
Xavier Woods, S, Carolina Panthers
You might notice this week that Demani Richardson led Panthers safeties with 11 tackles in Sunday’s loss at Denver. The undrafted rookie made his first start after S Nick Scott landed on IR and S Jordan Fuller proved not quite ready to return.
We’ll see about Fuller this week. Carolina designated him to return, but Fuller remained limited throughout Week 8 practices before the Panthers ruled him out. Fuller has now missed five weeks with his hamstring injury.
We know Woods will be in there for Sunday’s rematch with the Saints, though. And New Orleans has been the third most friendly scoring matchup for DBs.
Woods made a solid 8 tackles (5 solo) in their Week 1 meeting. That was one of just two games this season in which he has played more snaps in the box than deep. Overall, though, Woods has lined up in the box at a higher rate than last year: 36.8% vs. 27.9%.
He gets another upside matchup with the Giants in Week 10, before a Week 11 bye and negative close to the schedule.
Mike Jackson, CB, Carolina Panthers
Jackson benefits from the same positive matchups the next two weeks that I mentioned for Woods above.
The Week 1 meeting with New Orleans saw Jackson drawing more targets in coverage (6) than any other Panthers defender, according to PFF.
For the season, he has seen the seventh-most total targets among all CBs.
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