FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy (Updated 1/11)

A Half-Million Dollars Means BIG Decisions

This tournament isn’t like any other I play throughout the fantasy season.

And if you plan to chase the $500K top prize with me, then we have to think differently than we do for other fantasy football contests.

Know the Setup

Understanding the format is always key, so let’s start with the details.

You’re building a 12-player lineup here with no draft. There’s also no salary cap. The primary limitation: You can select no more than one player from any team.

The Lineup

QB
RB
RB
WR
WR
TE
Flex
Flex
Flex
Flex
K
DST

This single, initial lineup will compile points throughout the NFL playoffs. So you should not only consider which players you like the best, but also which teams you expect to advance.

Your players in the Super Bowl will prove especially important. The FFPC Challenge doubles all fantasy points scored that week.

So even if your team looks great through three weeks, you could easily get passed by a bunch of lineups that land their QB in the big one.

The Scoring

It’s primarily your typical PPR format, though the FFPC twist gives TEs 1.5 points per catch. TD passes get 4 points, while all other TDs get 6.

Make sure you check out the rest of the scoring details on the FFPC website before building your team.

Pick Four to Fade

You can make that lineup building easier by first picking out the four teams you don’t want to use.

Selecting 12 players from 14 teams means you’ll leave two playoff teams out completely. The other two “fades” should go in your DST and kicker positions.

Why? Those positions carry less scoring upside than the others. So you’ll ideally have your kicker and defense eliminated this weekend, and then carry your remaining 10 players into the Divisional Round.

One Fade is Obvious

The Steelers head toward Sunday as the biggest Week 1 underdog. The Bills opened as 10-point favorites, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see that line grow.

Pittsburgh finished the year 28th in the league in points and 25th in total yards. So even if they were to pull off a shocker in Buffalo, it would likely come via the Bills falling apart on offense rather than a Pittsburgh points explosion.

The Steelers will be the most faded team in this tournament, but it’s for good reason. I certainly plan to leave them completely out of my lineup.

Can You Differentiate with the Other Fades?

We obviously, primarily want to set the highest-scoring lineup for the FFPC Challenge. But don’t forget that you’re also trying to defeat a large field of competitors.

That means you’ll need to find spots in your lineup to differentiate. And because you can only use one player per team, those opportunities are limited.

Get ready to make an uncomfortable pick or two … or three.

Consider Using a Packer

Green Bay will hit the weekend as the next most likely team to lose, opening as a 7.5-point underdog at Dallas.

We’re certainly not betting on the Packers to win in a stadium where the Cowboys haven’t lost this year. But let’s look back one year …

The 9-8 Seahawks looked like a terrible bet to win at San Francisco in Round 1 – and indeed, they lost by 18. But D.K. Metcalf drew 13 targets, caught 10, racked up 136 yards and 2 TDs, and became a difference-maker in the FFPC Challenge.

Green Bay hits this Dallas matchup as the No. 12 scoring offense and No. 6 offense in DVOA. The Packers delivered their two largest yardage totals of the season the past two weeks (470 at Vikings and 432 vs. Bears).

• Rookie WR Jayden Reed has been a second-half force, including 15+ PPR points in seven of his final eight games.
• RB Aaron Jones tallied 141 total yards Sunday against a Bears D that had been playing tough.

Both players are worth considering and will be less rostered in the Challenge than if their team had a better chance to win in Round 1.

So who should you fade besides the Steelers? Let’s look into that in the team-by-team breakdown …

 

Best and Worst Plays Among NFC Teams

1. San Francisco 49ers (bye)

Obvious: RB Christian McCaffrey

This could be a key place to get different.

McCaffrey won’t be as widely played as he would if he were on another team, because the 49ers are loaded. But he showed up on 77% of rosters last year, according to Fantasy Mojo, and just had a monster season.

The main argument against McCaffrey is that he’ll be on tons of teams and these Niners can win without big CMC games. McCaffrey also enters the playoffs with a calf injury from Week 17. It doesn’t sound serious and wouldn’t be enough to fade him on its own, but it is a risk factor.

Other option(s): 

WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk

Both WRs are risky. Samuel averaged just 6.8 targets across 12 games of normal playing time this year. Aiyuk got 6.6 across his 16 appearances. Both guys are plenty capable of big games, though, and will find relatively low rostered rates because of the wealth of 49ers options.

TE George Kittle

Kittle might see a bit more use in the tournament than in other years, because Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is a less-obvious play than usual. But his situation will also keep his rostered rate down. And it should, really.

Five other TEs in these playoffs finished the season with more receptions than Kelce. None of them beat him in receiving yards, though. (Kittle led all TEs.)

QB Brock Purdy

Purdy might be most interesting from this quartet. There are plenty of other viable QB plays across the other teams. (We’ll get to them.) But don’t overlook that Purdy finished third in the league in TD passes and seventh among QBs in fantasy points per game. 

Fadeable? No

If you fade the right 1-seed and then watch them bow out in Game 1, you could gain a significant advantage over the field. But this doesn’t look like that kind of team.

2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Packers)

Obvious: WR CeeDee Lamb

He was the fourth-most rostered WR in last year’s tournament, and then delivered an even better season in 2023.

Lamb finished with 10 more targets and 16 more receptions than any other wideout. He has averaged 9.1 receptions and 119.4 yards per game across eight home contests this year.

Lamb hasn’t dipped below 15.3 PPR points in a game since Week 5 and close the season by topping 25 points in three straight.

This might be the chalky pick you need to roll with.

Other option(s): 

QB Dak Prescott

Prescott wouldn’t be a crazy selecting for your Playoff Challenge lineup. He finished third among fantasy QBs and has been awesome since Week 6.

But to use him here, you have to believe his team can make the Super Bowl. If they don’t, then you’ll need either an even bigger cushion heading into that final week of the tournament or especially big performances by the players you do get into that game.

Prescott could work in a McCaffrey lineup. Pairing any other 49er with him would leave you hoping that player scored big in the Super Bowl without his QB getting involved.

Even then, you could be in trouble against lineups that get McCaffrey and Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson into the Super Bowl.

RB Tony Pollard

Yep, I’d rather be done with 2023 Pollard as well. He at least reminded us four times among the final eight games that even a poor-performing RB can score some TDs in a good offense.

Pollard also got just 11 targets and caught only six balls for 26 yards over the final four games. He reached 80 rushing yards in a game just once all season (Week 3 at Arizona).

Relative to his role and the strength of his offense, Pollard stunk this year. The only reason to play him in the Challenge would be pivoting away from Lamb, who will probably be the most rostered WR in the tournament. But there’s one more option …

TE Jake Ferguson

Ferguson saw uneven target counts and catch totals through about two-thirds of the season. But he has drawn 6+ targets in six straight games now and caught at least four passes in each of those.

For the season, he ranks third among healthy playoff TEs (sorry, Sam LaPorta) in targets, fourth in receptions, fourth in yards, and tied for third in TDs.

His 12.5 points per game by FFPC scoring trail Pollard’s season average by just 0.5. And I’d bet he comes in barely used in FFPC lineups, behind Lamb, Prescott, and Pollard.

Fadeable? Nah

Dallas could lose this week. But it arrives as the second-biggest favorite of the week and will likely get at least two home playoff games. Fade this team, and you’re probably missing out on a fair number of points from someone.

3. Detroit Lions (vs. Rams)

Obvious: Amon-Ra St. Brown

This wouldn’t have been quite so “obvious” before Sam LaPorta’s injury Sunday afternoon. But you basically can’t use a rookie TE with just an “outside chance” to play this week – especially when his game won’t happen until Sunday.

That leaves ARSB as the top Detroit play after ranking fourth among WRs in PPR points per game for the season. Of course, he’s not the only option …

Other option(s):

RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery

Gibbs will almost definitely be the second-most popular Lion in this tournament, though likely well behind St. Brown.

It makes sense. Since David Montgomery returned from injury for the Week 10 OT win at the Chargers, Gibbs has totaled 5 more opportunities – including 24 more targets – and scored 9 TDs to Montgomery’s 7.

That span has even seen Gibbs trail Montgomery by just one in carries inside the 5-yard line: 11-10, according to Pro Football Focus.

He’s the “better” play than Montgomery. That, of course, will lower Montgomery’s rostered rate and make the vet the sneakier play.

Either is worth a look for this tournament.

Fadeable? Probably not.

You could get away with fading the Lions if they disappoint on offense and lose to the Rams. But this game carries the week’s highest Vegas over-under at the moment. So even a loss should generate some points.

And given the strength of the two offenses, I’d like to ensure I get at least one offensive player moving on from this game.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Eagles)

Obvious: DST

This will be a fairly obvious fade candidate. The Bucs totaled just 22 points over their final two regular-season games and head toward the weekend as home underdogs.

You could fade Tampa Bay by playing no one or use the defense. The case there would be a Bucs victory including the D generating some turnovers from a hurting Philly offense.

If you want to bet on a Bucs victory, though, give some though to the offensive options.

Option(s):

RB Rachaad White

Four RBs hit the playoffs with more PPR points per game for the season than White. Only McCaffrey sports more total points for the season.

White went fairly quiet over the past two weeks but delivered 19.6+ PPR points in four straight right before that.

He meets a Philly defense that once played the run tough but is now down to just 22nd in run-defense DVOA and worst among playoff teams in overall DVOA (29th).

Of course, after that he’d likely head to either San Francisco or Dallas – both of which finished among the seven toughest defenses in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

Evans enjoyed a nice season. He also averaged just 3.6 receptions over his final five contests, including three games of 3 or fewer. Evans trailed Godwin by 12 targets and 18 receptions over that span.

Evans would be the “what if he has a big game and no one else has him” play here. Godwin looks interesting for his potential to get two games of solid production.

Both get a boost by opening against an Eagles D that’s friendliest to WR scoring among playoff defenses by a wide margin.

Fadeable? Sure.

As of this writing, the Bucs carry the third-lowest Vegas-implied team total for Wild Card weekend. Even if they beat Philly, they’re not a great bet for big fantasy points.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (at Bucs)

Obvious: A.J. Brown

He’s less “obvious” because he hurt a knee in the Week 18 loss to the Giants. But if Brown’s trending well by the team we have to lock in our lineups this Saturday, he’ll almost certainly be the most-played Eagle.

Brown finished the season as fantasy’s No. 5 PPR receiver. He also ranks sixth in points per game if you remove Week 18.

Other option(s):

WR DeVonta Smith

You can certainly play Smith and potentially have it work out. He’s …

• very good
• facing a weak defense in Round 1
• playing on a favored team in the opening round
• likely to see a single-digit rostered rate in this tournament

I’m wary, however, of a guy who … 

• got just 5 targets in each of his past three games
• heads into the weekend with an ankle issue
• plays with a QB who just injured his throwing hand.

TE Dallas Goedert

In the four games they’ve shared since Godert returned from his arm injury, the TE leads Smith by 3 targets and 3 receptions.

That plus the TE-premium scoring of the FFPC contest might be enough to push Goedert ahead of Smith in rostered rate for the tournament. But I expect both to be little-used. So I’ll lean toward the healthier player if deciding between them.

RB D’Andre Swift

Swift would be a truly sneaky play in one of your two RB slots. But doing so might be getting a little too cute.

Swift posted single-digit PPR scores in six of his final eight outings this season, a span that started with his 9.4 in the first meeting with Dallas (Week 9).

Swift also tied for just 29th among RBs in expected PPR points per game from then through Week 17 (he missed Week 18 with an illness), according to PFF.

Fadeable? Yes.

Plenty of Challenge players will be scared to avoid the star-studded Philly offense completely. But the unit earned four negative single-game DVOA ratings among its final six games. The only positives in that span came in the first meeting with the Giants and a home date with Arizona.

Now:

• Jalen Hurts has an injured right middle finger.
• A.J. Brown’s dealing with a knee issue.
• DeVonta Smith’s coming off an ankle sprain.
• G Cam Jurgens looks iffy with an eye injury.
• The defense carries multiple injury questions.

The Eagles lost five of their final six games and fell short of 20 points in three straight before those aforementioned Giants and Cardinals games. This team doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere – and could easily lose to Tampa.

6. Los Angeles Rams (at Lions)

Obvious: RB Kyren Williams

The guy was a fantasy monster this year. He finished closer to No. 1 Christian McCaffrey in PPR points per game than he did to No. 3 Raheem Mostert.

Williams had as many games of 30+ PPR points (two) as he did single-digit PPR outings.

Other option(s):

WRs Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp

CeeDee Lamb is the chalk you probably “need” to play. Williams might be the guy you can get away with fading.

That’s no knock on him. Williams is the “safest” RB play other than McCaffrey. But no player is a lock in any given game.

He opens the playoffs against a Detroit defense that ranks first in DVOA against the run; 16th against the pass. If he has a tough day there and the Rams lose, you can get a jump on the large portion of the field that rosters Williams.

Both Nacua and Kupp, of course, have showed they can deliver big fantasy scores. 

Kupp finished quietly with a 4-27-1 receiving line against the Giants in Week 17 but caught 6+ passes on 8+ targets in four straight before that. Nacua also drew 8+ targets in each of those games and delivered 118+ yards in each of his final two regular-duty games.

Both look like strong plays at rostered rates likely to be lower than they should.

Fadeable? Nah.

Sure, if you fade the Rams and they lose to the Lions, that fade probably won’t kill your tourney chances. But even a one-game Rams offense could easily provide us that D.K. Metcalf game from a year ago.

That’s another reason I’ll almost definitely play one among the WRs and Williams, who also sports reception upside.

7. Green Bay Packers (at Cowboys)

Obvious: Fade

They’re 7.5-point underdogs as of this writing. That obviously makes Green Bay a strong candidate. And that’s why we already addressed the possibility of differentiating your lineup by not fading this well-performing offense.

Other option(s): Already addressed

I’d have a tough time looking beyond Jayden Reed and Aaron Jones as options here, if you don’t fade the Packers completely.

Fadeable? Yes, but not a lock.

 

Best and Worst Plays Among AFC Teams

1. Baltimore Ravens (bye)

Obvious: QB Lamar Jackson

I’m expecting Jackson to be the most-rostered QB in the tournament, because the other options on his team aren’t nearly as attractive as they are for other QB candidates. The case for playing Jackson doesn’t need to be made here.

Other option(s): 

WR Zay Flowers

The rookie wideout drew 44 more targets than any teammate this season. And he found the end zone in four of his final five games.

Try not to overrate that second factor, though. Flowers ranked just 51st among WRs in expected TDs for the season, according to PFF, and tied for 46th in expected PPR points per game.

The big-play speed and strong role in the offense are good. And the Lamar Jackson usage in this tournament should keep Flowers’ rostered rate down. But there’s also potential for players to chase four-game potential in QBs from the next two teams here. And I’d bet Flowers will be the next most popular Raven.

TE Isaiah Likely?

Over five games with Lamar Jackson (he sat out Week 18) following Mark Andrews’ Week 11 injury, Likely trailed Flowers by 10 targets and 5 receptions but matched his 4 TDs and beat the WR by 21 yards.

That would be enough to make Likely a potential sleeper in this tournament. But there now seems to be a chance that TE Mark Andrews could return by Baltimore's first game (in the Divisional Round).

That possibility makes it tough to favor Likely.

What about Andrews? That's a risk that could pay off if he jumps back in close to full strength and playing time. But you'll need to decide whether you're willing to take that big a chance.

Fadeable? Nah.

Could the Ravens lose next weekend? Sure. But they ripped through the 49ers and Dolphins the last two times we saw them trying. I’d rather play the Lamar Jackson chalk than fade that team.

2. Buffalo Bills (vs. Steelers)

Obvious: QB Josh Allen

Allen edged WR Stefon Diggs in rostered rate in this tournament last year. Diggs finished that season as the No. 5 WR in points per game. He limps into these playoffs ranked ninth in that category for the season – 42nd over just the past five weeks.

Allen merely led QB scorers for the fourth straight season. He ran for a career-high 15 TDs and closed the regular-season by matching his season high with 359 passing yards.

The thing that could push Allen ahead of even Lamar Jackson in rostered rate among QBs: Playing opening weekend gives him a chance to play four games.

Four games of Josh Allen vs. three games of any other QB could make him necessary for winning this contest – especially with that final week doubled.

Of course, if the Bills lose to Baltimore in the AFC title game and set up a Ravens-Niners Super Bowl, then the doubled final would basically make it four regular weeks of Jackson or Brock Purdy vs. three Allen weeks.

Other option(s):

WR Stefon Diggs

He’s less attractive than at the end of any of his three previous Buffalo seasons. But Sunday night’s game at Miami should remind you that the upside remains.

Diggs caught seven of 8 targets for 87 yards, and the lone incompletion was a just-missed deep ball after Diggs had beaten CB Jalen Ramsey off the line.

Diggs’ average target depths deepened over the past three games after shortening through the middle of the year, a span that included the OC switch.

If the Bills regain any of the passing lean they’ve let dip under OC Joe Brady – or even just if Allen and Diggs connect a bit more than they have recently – big-game potential remains here. And you might get it at a significantly lower-than-usual rostered rate.

RB James Cook

Cook’s touches have picked up since Buffalo made its OC switch. But if you look at his game log, you’ll see the production has been a little flimsier than the total numbers suggest.

Cook has exceeded 73 rushing yards just once in the seven games since the coaching change. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per rush over that span, vs. 5.1 through Week 10. And the past four contests have included just 10 targets and 6 receptions.

Cook’s two worst PFF rushing grades and total-offense grades have come among the past three games.

None of that means he can’t work here, where he’ll also likely differentiate your roster some. But if Cook comes in as a more popular option than Diggs, the WR will become an even better play.

Fadeable? No way.

Even if you don’t believe in this team’s chances to reach the Super Bowl, it’s pretty difficult to imagine the Bills stumbling over the Steelers in Round 1.

So if you want to bet against them, do so by rostering Diggs or Cook instead of Allen. You could even take a shot on TE Dalton Kincaid in that case. Just know that he trails Diggs and Cook in both ceiling and floor – and might see his popularity inflated a bit by the format and a season-closing 7-84 receiving line.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Dolphins)

Obvious: TE Travis Kelce

Kelce perennially ranks among the most rostered players in this tournament. He’ll almost definitely check in north of 50% this year and could even go 70%+.

This year looked rough relative to Kelce’s history, but he still tied T.J. Hockenson for the position lead in TE-premium points per game.

That said, Kelce also hasn’t scored since Week 11. He’s averaging 1.6 yards less per catch than in any other season. His yards per game sit at their lowest level since 2015 and his yards per target at a career low, despite his best catch rate since 2014.

But all that just means he’s not quite as clear a play as he has been every other year. And the relative weakness of his team vs. previous years further dings that.

Like with Josh Allen above, avoiding Kelce in your lineup can be just as much about betting against the Chiefs as about betting against the player.

Other option(s):

QB Patrick Mahomes

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think these Chiefs have a real shot at reaching the Super Bowl. Sure, the defense is better than it’s typically been. But the offense also isn’t nearly as good. And there are some strong AFC competitors – including two that hold home-field advantage over K.C.

Oh yeah, and EIGHT other QBs in these playoffs averaged more fantasy points per game this season than Mahomes. Even if they do cobble together another run, I have a hard time envisioning it coming via passing explosion.

WR Rashee Rice

This rookie became the steady receiving producer down the stretch that Kelce’s supposed to be. Over the final six games that Chiefs starters played, Rice averaged:

• 9.3 targets
• 7.2 receptions
• 86.3 yards
• 0.5 TDs
• 18.6 FFPC points

Kelce over the same span:

• 6.7 targets
• 4.8 receptions
• 57.2 yards
• 0.0 TDs
• 13.0 FFPC points

If Kelce does remain above 50% in rostered rate, then Rice will probably land at 25% or less. How much lower will depend on how high Kelce’s rate goes, how many take a shot on Mahomes, and how popular this next guy gets …

RB Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco returned just 6 days after a concussion to rack up 130 rushing yards and a 7-35-1 receiving line against the Bengals in Week 17.

For the season, he tied for 11th among RBs in FFPC points per game. And his receiving role picked up as the season wore on.

If the seeds hold, Pacheco’s first two playoff games will come against middling run defenses (vs. Miami, at Buffalo) in wintry climates.

Fadeable? Perhaps.

Going full fade on this offense would be gutsy. But like I said earlier, it takes some uncomfortable decisions to build the winning lineup.

These Chiefs are just 4-4 since their Week 10 bye. That includes losses at home to the Eagles, Bills, and Raiders – as well as a “win” with Blaine Gabbert at QB in Week 18.

It wouldn’t be shocking to see K.C. lose to Miami this weekend. And the Chiefs sit just 15th in the league in scoring.

I’m not saying I’ll be fading them. But it’s worth considering as a contrarian move.

4. Houston Texans (vs. Browns)

Obvious: K Ka’imi Fairbairn

Fantasy’s third-highest scoring kicker for the season (by ESPN scoring), on a home underdog in Round 1. Makes sense.

Of course, the obviousness of this kicker play makes Houston worth a look for the full fade.

Other option(s): 

WR Nico Collins

These Texans have been fun, but they carry the fourth-lowest Vegas-implied team total for this weekend. They’re home underdogs to a good Browns defense. And if they win, they’ll either head to Baltimore or Buffalo.

We did already get one look at Collins vs. the Browns in December, but C.J. Stroud missed that game. For the season, Cleveland allowed the third-fewest WR PPR points. Only the Jets allowed fewer WR receptions. And the Browns yielded just two WR games of more than 5 catches all year.

RB Devin Singletary

The Browns rank:

• fifth-toughest on WR scoring
• fourth-toughest on QBs
• fourth-toughest on TEs
• ninth-toughest on RBs

They allowed the second-fewest receptions to both WRs and TEs while tying for 13th-fewest allowed to RBs.

Singletary had an odd game in the Week 16 meeting with Cleveland, going 9-44 rushing and 3-19 receiving on less playing time than usual. But he sat out the entire fourth quarter of the blowout loss.

Overall, Singletary has worked clearly ahead of Dameon Pierce, including games of 30, 19, and 25 touches among the final four contests.

Fadeable? Yes.

It’s OK to play the kicker or no one from Houston.

5. Cleveland Browns (at Texans)

Obvious: WR Amari Cooper

Cooper gets the nod over David Njoku here because of what he did in the first Houston meeting:

• 11 catches
• 265 yards
• 2 TDs
• 49.5 fantasy points

For the season, his 15.1 points per game in this format sit basically even with Njoku (15.2).

Of course, Cooper then missed the following game with heel injury that popped up during his huge Houston outing. Then he sat out Week 18 with other starters.

We’ll watch that issue this week but assume it won’t affect his playoff availability. Like with McCaffrey, though, it does add a risk factor.

Other option: TE David Njoku

We obviously can’t count on another game near that level from Cooper. And if we take the highest-scoring game away from both him and Njoku, then the TE wins 14.2 to 12.6 in FFPC points per game.

Njoku has been even better since QB Joe Flacco arrived, averaging 21.4 FFPC points across the five games and falling short of 19.4 only once.

His 6-44-1 in the last Texans meeting marked one of Njoku’s lowest yards-per-catch games all year. But Houston has been the third-easiest scoring matchup for TEs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Fadeable? Yes.

This doesn’t seem like the ideal path, given that Cleveland is favored and currently carries the fifth-highest implied team total for Wild Card weekend. But there aren’t many attractive Browns options. You could certainly simply fade altogether and bet on a Houston victory.

6. Miami Dolphins (at Chiefs)

Obvious: WR Tyreek Hill

In case you haven’t heard of him, he can do standing backflips in the end zone.

Other option(s): RBs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert

First of all, no thanks on Jaylen Waddle with a high-ankle sprain. And if you’re pondering Tua Tagovailoa, then you’re thinking a little too hard.

Mostert carries risk with knee and ankle issues that kept him out of the past two games. The upside, of course, is that he scored 21 TDs across 15 games. That included the best fantasy score among Dolphins in the Week 9 meeting with K.C.

Achane missed that contest and nearly all of the two following. He has 4 TDs over the six games since. Plus a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry for the season.

Fadeable? Yes.

Tyreek Hill was merely OK in the first meeting with the Chiefs, catching eight of 10 targets for 62 yards – with no play longer than 19.

Of course, we all know the upside, which is why he’ll probably be one of the most-rostered players in the tournament. A meh Hill game plus Miami losing would hurt all those rosters while giving you an opportunity to pick up points with that roster spot that most aren’t getting.

For all their offensive fireworks this season, the Dolphins currently sport the week’s second-lowest team total – ahead of only the Steelers.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Bills)

Obvious: Fade

Don’t make it more difficult than it is. This is clearly the worst team in these playoffs.

Other option(s): Inflicting unnecessary pain on yourself

Sure. It’s possible George Pickens gets away for a long TD that powers a worthwhile fantasy day. It’s possible that Najee Harris finds the end zone. It’s possible that Jaylen Warren gets extra receiving usage.

But this team’s probably getting blown out Sunday afternoon. And the offense will probably stink. If you land on a Steelers player in your lineup for this $200-entry contest and that guy hits, you earned the advantage you just got. Congrats.

Fadeable?

They’re starting Mason Freaking Rudolph.

(Bet you didn’t know his middle name.)