Fantasy Football Trade Targets, Sells, and Holds – Week 3

Trading Should Be Uncomfortable

You probably don’t play in a league full of idiots – right?

Sure, you’ve got the one buddy who’s a 49ers fan and overpays to collect as many of them as possible. And that other guy who thinks Dua Lipa is a heart medication.

But you can’t just fleece the group on trades whenever you want, right? If you want to get value, then you’ll most likely need to give value.

That’s the uncomfortable part of trading.

The primary goal of this article every week is to call your attention to some players whose current market value likely sits below (Buy) or above (Sell) what we believe his future production will be.

The Sell category can look especially negative. But that group rarely includes guys that we think are about to crash. They’re not generally players that you need to get rid of at any cost. (I’ll tell you if they are.)

They’re players you might be able to move for more value now than later. If you can’t get a good enough return? Don’t make the move.

Fantasy football can often feel like a sprint – like if you’re not making a move, then everyone else is passing you.

But this race is longer than 100 meters. And sometimes the best move is to keep going at your current pace, so you don’t burn out before the end.

Week 3 Buys

• Chris Olave
• Sam LaPorta
• Zack Moss

Week 3 Sells

• Kyren Williams
• J.K. Dobbins
• Stefon Diggs

Week 3 Holds

• Tee Higgins
• Evan Engram

 

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Fantasy Trade Targets (Buy)

This section features one high-performing offense that has yet to bring along (arguably) its best player. Plus another couple of offenses we expect to rank among the league’s best … who haven’t quite gotten there yet.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

The Saints have taken off in a way no one could have predicted. But they’ve left their lead WR behind.

Olave ranks just 52nd among PPR wideouts. He sits tied for 61st among WRs in targets, with Trenton Irwin, Devaughn Vele, and six others.

What’s going on?

Low Volume and Bad Luck

New Orleans’ two straight blowout victories have cratered passing volume. The team’s 40 attempts rank last in the league. The Saints have passed on just 35.5% of offensive plays. League average through two weeks: 54.4%.

Olave’s target share (20%) ranks better than his target total, though still a disappointing tied for 41st. We’ve already seen how volatile that can be on little data, though. Olave went from 8.7% in Week 1 to 37.5% against the Cowboys.

Frankly, if one of his four catches in that game had gone just a half-yard further, we probably wouldn’t even be discussing him here.

Olave had a 19-yard reception late in the second quarter that brought him down inside the 1-yard line. QB Derek Carr scored on a sneak the next play.

Earlier in the game, Carr connected with Olave for a 39-yarder that set up Alvin Kamara’s 5-yard TD run.

That’s two plays among just 16 team passing attempts that could have become TDs.

Week 3 Breakthrough Coming?

New Orleans is not going to keep beating teams by 20+ points a week. And closer contests will push more passing volume.

That could easily start this week. Vegas has the Saints favored by just 2.5 at home against the Eagles, in a game with the week’s second-highest projected point total.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions

LaPorta and the Lions will face the Cardinals in the only game with a higher over/under than Saints-Eagles. But how much of a factor will the second-year TE be?

LaPorta sits just 16th in PPR scoring so far at a beleaguered position. He managed only a 2-13 receiving line on 3 targets last Sunday in a game that saw Jared Goff attempt 55 passes.

But as Jared pointed out in this week’s usage article, it ain’t time to panic.

LaPorta’s Role Hasn’t Changed

The TE has played 84% of Lions snaps through two games, right in line with last year’s 83% snap rate. He has run a route on 81% of dropbacks, matching last year’s rate.

All that’s missing is the targets. And HC Dan Campbell says a summer hamstring injury might have been a factor.

“He had the injury coming out of camp so we were trying to be smart with him for the Rams game, for sure," Campbell said. "I was actually worried about him getting too many reps for the Rams game.”

LaPorta climbed from 79% snap share in the opener to 88% in Week 2. And Campbell credits the Bucs defense with erasing some LaPorta opportunities:

"Last week we had some things in for him. Hell, we had a couple plays down in the red zone that they took away, defensively they did a good job, we dumped it down, so the ball just didn’t really find him for this game. He’s not someone we don’t think about."

Expect More Lions Scoring

So Campbell remains on the LaPorta train. And it’s not like the Lions aren’t good anymore.

They rank second in the league in total yards so far – second in passing yards and first in pass attempts after that inflated day against the Bucs. They’ve topped 360 total yards in each game, but sit just 16th in points.

The past two seasons saw Detroit finish top 5 in both yardage and scoring.

Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Moss’ mere 21 carries and 3 receptions through two games makes the Cincinnati backfield look just as split as we all expected it to be. But that’s not actually how the Bengals operated in Week 2.

Moss increased his lead over Chase Brown in snap share …

• Week 1: 65% vs. 33%
• Week 2: 82% vs. 18%

… and route rate …

• Week 1: 49% vs. 37%
• Week 2: 56% vs. 12%

It’s a two-week sample. Perhaps that shifts again for Week 3. But if it doesn’t, then Moss could be driving the backfield against a soft Washington defense.

The Commanders have allowed the eighth-most yards per touch to RBs so far – while facing Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Devin Singletary.

And Cincinnati heads in as a 7.5-point favorite, which could boost rushing volume.

There’s upside to Moss as long as you don’t overpay.

Recent Buys

Let's look back at our Trade Target recommendations from last week and how we'd treat those players now ...

• Caleb Williams should rebound from a rough first two weeks. You can still go after Moore in a buy-low situation if you want. But waiting to see some spark this week before a friendly stretch of home games wouldn't be a bad idea.
• Nabers delivered a 10-127-1 receiving line on 18 targets at Washington. His managers are still buzzing.
• One target ain't gonna cut it. But Josh Allen only attempted 19 passes for the game. Coleman led in playing time and routes for the second straight week. It'll come. Just don't overpay.

 

Fantasy Sells

Everyone’s talking about the impact of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua injuries on the Rams’ WR corps. But what about the fallout for the rest of the offense?

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams

Three factors drove Williams’ fantasy breakthrough in 2023. In order:

1. TDs (15, one every 17.3 touches)
2. Backfield control (led league in opportunity share)
3. Yardage efficiency (5.0 yards per carry)

Two of those three look highly threatened.

In addition to the well-publicized WR injuries, three starting O-linemen sit on IR right now.

Williams faced the league’s lowest rate of 8+ defenders in the box last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That rate has climbed already this year and should rise even further while Nacua and Kupp are out.

Williams’ yards before contact are already down from 3.0 last year to a career-low 1.1 through two games of 2024.

He remains in control of the backfield, at least. Rookie Blake Corum’s eight carries last week all came at the end of a blowout.

But this offense looks likely to struggle over at least the next month. And that won’t help its lead RB’s yardage or scoring opportunities.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Remember that bit about discomfort?

We’ve always liked Dobbins’ talent. And his big start to this season coming off the Achilles’ tear has to make you feel good for him. But it also might have his perceived value inflated.

It Can’t Stay Quite This Good

Dobbins has capitalized on two weeks of highly positive game script. His chargers led 20-0 at halftime last week. And Dobbins tallied 131 of his 135 Week 1 yards in the second half, which L.A. led throughout.

He has also enjoyed unreal efficiency, averaging 9.9 yards per carry and scoring on 7.4% of his rushing attempts to date. And the matchups certainly didn’t hurt. The Raiders and Panthers finishes last year as the ninth and sixth most-friendly RB defenses.

Don’t Expect Work Share to Change

Even while out-running Gus Edwards by 7.0 yards per carry, Dobbins has actually logged two fewer attempts so far. He has more than doubled Edwards in pass routes, 27-11, but has seen just 4 targets – and totaled 4 yards on 4 receptions.

Sure, passing volume will probably rise some in closer games. But that’s not likely to become a plus for Dobbins vs. other RBs. He has averaged just 1.2 receptions per game for his career to date, nearly all of which has come under OC Greg Roman.

These Chargers figure to remain run-heavy. And they have incentive to keep splitting work evenly between Edwards and Dobbins, who is just now a year beyond his injury.

The temptation to increase work for the more dynamic back must wrestle with the reality that more work means more wear on Dobbins’ body and higher risk of injury.

Don’t Under-Sell Dobbins

Although we clearly expect Dobbins’ efficiency to come down, we’re not betting he’ll tank. He looks like a potential weekly RB2 in a run-heavy offense.

So aim high if you try to sell him this week. And if you don’t get a favorable return, don’t make the move.

Now looks like a good time to try the market, though, because the next three weeks hold tougher matchups with Pittsburgh and Kansas City, and then the Chargers’ bye.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans

Diggs’ 4-37 receiving line against the Bears on Sunday night isn’t going to boost his value. But his two Week 1 TDs, Diggs’ long record of production, and Houston’s high-upside offense should still be boosting him.

Why don’t all those factors simply make him a hold?

The main issue is that Diggs seems to be settling in as the short-range option in a crowded offense.

His 5.4-yard average depth of target (according to PFF) through two weeks sits 5.2 yards short of his 2023 rate, which was lowest among his four years in Buffalo. It also sits 9.0 yards short of Tank Dell’s aDOT and 8.2 yards short of Nico Collins’.

Diggs’ 3.1 yards before catch per reception ranks fifth on the team through two weeks, according to Pro Football Reference. It’s also less than half of any of his Buffalo averages.

Why His Target Depth Matters

Is that too much focus on Diggs’ target depth? Maybe. But the shorter Diggs’ targets go, the more target volume he needs to support regular fantasy production. And we always knew that getting consistently high target volume would be tough in Houston – with dynamic young wideouts to both sides of him.

Just seven WRs finished among last year’s top 24 in PPR points per game with aDOTs shorter than 10.0 yards. And just one of those (Deebo Samuel, 7.5) did so at less than 8.0.

Only four more shorties finished among the top 36 in PPR points per game, with two of those shy of 8.0

Recent Sells

• White tried to nuke his own value with an early-game injury in Week 2. He returned to that game but managed just 23 total yards. You're betting off waiting for another good performance before selling -- unless you find a desperate buyer.
• Stevenson easily led the backfield again and scored. But he also watched Antonio Gibson take a much larger work share after exiting the injury report.
• White managed just 38 total yards in a win over the Ravens. Good luck finding a buyer this week.

 

Fantasy Holds

The Buys and Sells might get top billing here. But like I said, sometimes the best move is no move.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

I know. He couldn’t have started this season much more Tee Higgins-y. (Maybe if he’d been active for one of the games without playing?)

But what’s quitting now gonna do for you? That manager making you an offer for him is hoping that you’re compounding Higgins’ reputation on top this year’s hamstring injury and just getting rid of him.

Unless you’re actually getting a strong offer, you’re just making the problem worse. HC Zac Taylor said early this week that the WR is trending in the right direction and has a chance to play Week 3. And Higgins has finished among the top 14 in PPR points per game each of the two seasons he has spent with a healthy Joe Burrow.

Imagine quitting on that guy now.

If you do want out, just hit the market after Higgins’ next big game.

Buy Ja'Marr Chase?

Of course, there's another pretty good WR on Higgins' team who has opened the year with limited production despite being healthy.

Chase's numbers dipped from Week 1 to Week 2, but his playing time crept up, and the Bengals' offense performed better.

Unless you believe Cincinnati will keep throwing 61% of its completions to TEs -- as it did at Kansas City -- then checking on Chase's price in your league makes sense ahead of a positive matchup with Washington.

Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

How rough has TE been so far?

• Mike Gesicki ranks fifth in PPR points
• Foster Moreau 10th
• Chig Okonkwo 11th
• Travis Kelce 28th

That’s why you need to be patient with a guy you likely drafted among the top 8 at the position.

The “week-to-week” designation from HC Doug Pederson makes Engram a poor bet for Week 3. But if you can cover the position, Engram’s upside is worth keeping.

The TE ranked second at the position in target share last season. And he’ll return from injury (at some point) to find a struggling pass offense ready for an answer.

 

How Should You Attack These Trade Targets?

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