WR Sleepers 2024 (Wide Receivers)

Looking For This Year’s Puka Nacua?

Of course you are. But I hate to break it to you: There very likely won’t be a “this year’s Puka Nacua.”

That said, we can learn a valuable lesson from Nacua about how to find fantasy WR sleepers. He hit both of the key drivers of sleeper value:

1. Talent: Nacua was a favorite of many film grinders and recorded an elite 3.45 yards per route over four college seasons.
2. Situation: Nacua joined a Rams team with opportunity behind Cooper Kupp and a HC and QB with long histories of producing strong WR numbers.

Checking both of those boxes can lead to a massive breakout season like we got from Nacua last year. 

But if we can find guys that hit even just one of those boxes, we can uncover the best wide receiver sleepers. 

Who are those WRs in 2024? Here are the top candidates.

 

    

Mid-Round WR Sleepers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Smith-Njigba is coming off an underwhelming rookie season, finishing 61st among WRs in PPR points per game.

Blame a Fantasy-Unfriendly Role

Under 2023 OC Shane Waldron, Smith-Njigba:

• Ran a route on 75% of dropbacks
• Drew a 16.7% target share (56th among WRs)
• Registered a 6.4-yard average target depth (77th among 80 qualifying WRs)

New Offense This Year Should Help

Tough target competition from WRs D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remains. But Smith-Njigba should play a more diverse and productive role under new OC Ryan Grubb, who deployed an aggressive passing game at the University of Washington the past two years.

New HC Mike Macdonald has hyped up Smith-Njigba multiple times this offseason. He said in June that JSN will be a "massive piece" of the offense. And here's Macdonald on Smith-Njigba in early August:

#Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald on Jaxon Smith-Njigba:

“He’s got this fluid explosiveness about him. Can run the entire route tree. Incredible ways to track the ball. Body control. Explosive in and out of his cuts… The mentality of what we want, he has that.” pic.twitter.com/uXDiaZuHCo

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 6, 2024

A First-Round Talent

Remember that Smith-Njigba was a first-round pick just a year ago after turning in one of the most impressive sophomore seasons we’ve ever seen. He racked up 95 catches for 1,606 yards and 9 TDs in that 2021 campaign, out-producing both Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave.

Don’t be surprised if Smith-Njigba takes a massive Year 2 leap. He's plenty capable of out-targeting and out-producing Lockett. And it wouldn't be a total shock if he emerges as Seattle's No. 1 WR this season.

 

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Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

Here’s a post-hype wide receiver sleeper. 

Watson was a popular breakout pick last summer after flashing big-play pop as a rookie. But he was derailed by right hamstring trouble, missing the first three games and final five of the season.

2023 Wasn’t All Bad

Watson once again displayed big fantasy upside when he was on the field, though. His nine games included lines of:

• 3-91-0
• 5-94-1
• 7-71-2

More importantly, his role remained very fantasy friendly. Watson registered a big 15.6-yard average target depth, leading to 15.1 yards per catch. And he drew 15 end-zone targets. That led the Packers and ranked sixth among all WRs. Despite Watson missing nearly half the season.

It all helped Watson rank 25th among WRs in expected PPR points per game – tied with Terry McLaurin and just behind D.K. Metcalf and D.J. Moore.

2024 Opportunity Looks Strong

Now he heads into his third NFL season with a QB in Jordan Love who was one of the best in the league over the second half of last year.

Green Bay got nice rookie seasons out of WRs Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks in 2023. But a healthy Watson is likely to be a top-2 option in the passing game, with the potential to lead the Packers in targets.

Watson spent the offseason solving his hamstring problems and has been healthy throughout August.

The best part: He’s significantly cheaper this year than last. Watson’s current ADP sits in the late-eighth round as the 40th WR off the board. He has the potential to smash that price tag.

  

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Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

It’s been a slow burn for Williams. 

He missed the first 11 games of his 2022 rookie season working back from an ACL tear. He played limited snaps over the final six games, catching just one of nine targets.

Then a gambling suspension cost him the first four games of last year. Williams returned to a part-time role, failing to top a 55% route rate in any of his first five games.

Playing Time Grows

But Williams’ playing time expanded the rest of the way. He ran a route on 60% of pass plays from weeks 11 through 17 – and then 78% over three playoff games.

Williams’ averages in those 10 games:

• 3.4 targets
• 2.9 catches
• 34.4 yards
• 0.2 TDs

We need more than that for Williams to deliver as a sleeper. 

Lions Clearly Believe He Can Give More

HC Dan Campbell called Williams the team's most improved player this offseason back in May. And the team’s actions confirm that optimism.

Detroit let Josh Reynolds walk in free agency after he finished second among Lions WRs in targets. And the team made no major additions to the position.

The Williams hype train has not slow down in training camp. Here's OC Ben Johnson on Williams' growth:

No. 2 WR in High-Scoring Offense?

The door is wide open for Williams to step into a full-time role in a Lions offense that ranked top five in points scored, passing yards, and passing TDs last year. This year's Lions are implied for the second-most points.

Williams won’t climb past WR Amon-Ra St. Brown or TE Sam LaPorta in the pecking order. But he doesn’t need huge target volume to pay off.

Remember that this former first-rounder boasts truly elite speed. That led to 19.9 yards per catch in his breakout junior season at Alabama.

  

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Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints

Pop quiz: How many WRs have averaged more yards per target than Shaheed over the last two seasons?

Answer: Zero.

Underrated Talent

Shaheed’s 11.1 yards per target leads all 79 WRs with 100+ targets since the start of 2022 – 0.3 yards clear of No. 2 Brandon Aiyuk.

Shaheed has registered a big 13.7-yard average target depth over the last two years but still managed to catch 67.9% of those targets. He has been a strong separator, ranking 36th among 92 qualifiers in ESPN’s Open Score. And he has dropped just 2.6% of his catchable targets.

He Needs More Targets

Shaheed hasn’t seen quite enough targets to be a reliable fantasy option, although he came close last season. Jumping from 2.8 targets per game as a rookie to 5.0 last year, Shaheed finished 51st among WRs in PPR points per game.

Volume Boost Coming?

He could see another bump in volume this season with the departure of WR Michael Thomas. Check out Shaheed’s per-game numbers last year in nine healthy games with Thomas vs. five without:

Shaheed’s fantasy production actually declined without Thomas. But what we really care about is the 26% increase in targets and 24% increase in catches.

With names like A.T. Perry, Cedrick Wilson, and Equanimeous St. Brown behind him on the depth chart, Shaheed looks like the clear No. 2 WR in New Orleans in his third NFL season.

He could climb toward triple-digit targets and has the potential to emerge as a WR3 with spike-week upside.

  

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Late-Round WR Sleepers

Demarcus Robinson, Los Angeles Rams

Robinson barely played over the first two-thirds of last season. But he became a key contributor over the final third.

WR3-Level Production Late

Replacing Tutu Atwell as the No. 3 WR over the Rams’ final seven meaningful games, Robinson averaged:

• 6.0 targets
• 3.7 catches
• 53.3 yards
• 0.6 TDs

His 12.8 PPR points per game across those contests would have ranked 33rd among WRs for the season.

Robinson Played a Fantasy-Rich Role

He registered a healthy 12.3-yard average target depth and led the Rams with eight end-zone targets in those final seven games. Yes, ahead of both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Robinson’s 11.9 expected PPR points per game during that stretch would have ranked 36th at his position for the season.

Rams Made No Significant WR Additions

Robinson is a good bet to be the No. 3 WR again this year. Sixth-round rookie Jordan Whittington has made some noise in August. But Robinson has been consistently working with the first team in training camp and sat out the first two preseason games along with the rest of the Rams' key pieces.

That No. 3 WR job would give Robinson a shot to produce as a WR3/4 as he did late last season.

The ultimate upside: An injury to either Nacua or Kupp could turn Robinson into a weekly fantasy starter in HC Sean McVay’s WR-friendly offense. Nacua is currently sidelined with a knee injury (although he's expected to be ready for Week 1.)

The Rams have ranked top 4 in total WR PPR points in five of McVay’s seven seasons at the helm.

  

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Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

We don’t blame you for sleeping on Bateman. He’s been largely disappointing through three NFL seasons and is coming off his worst year as a pro.

But the Ravens are still optimistic, so we’re at least leaving the door open for a bounce-back season from this former first-round pick.

Path Clears for Bateman

Baltimore gave Bateman a two-year, $12.9 million extension this offseason, let WR Odell Beckham walk in free agency, and didn’t make any significant upgrades to the WR room. The team only re-signed Nelson Agholor and added fourth-round rookie Devontez Walker.

That gives Bateman an opportunity to play a much bigger role this year.

Coaches Are Excited

The Ravens’ coaching staff has been talking up Bateman all offseason. 

HC John Harbaugh said in February that Bateman is “going to take a big step” this year and get the ball “a lot more.” 

OC Todd Monken in May: “As [last] year went on, Rashod really came on. And I’ve seen tremendous growth. But, again, growth is just because he didn’t have an offseason last year. … I expect a tremendous year out of him.”

That’s a fair assessment. Bateman missed part of last spring and the start of training camp after getting a cortisone shot in his foot. All as he was trying to learn a brand new offense under Monken.

Healthy Bateman Remains Intriguing

Bateman had a healthy spring and is back on the training-camp field after missing a few days with an undisclosed injury.

Talent has never been a question with this guy. Bateman was the 27th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft after an impressive three-year college career that included a freshman breakout and 94 yards per game over his final two seasons.

He’s (Almost) Free in Drafts

It certainly won’t cost you much to take another shot at Bateman this year. We’ve seen him go undrafted in some 18-round best ball drafts. His consensus ADP sits in Round 20 as the 76th WR off the board.

Bateman’s combination of talent and opportunity makes him worth a dice roll at that cost.

 

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Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

McMillan was the third University of Washington WR to come off the board in this spring's draft, going to the Bucs at pick No. 92.

Underrated Prospect

Flash back a year, though, and McMillan might have been considered the team's best pro prospect. (Yes, ahead of even Rome Odunze.) McMillan posted a big 70-1,098-9 receiving line in that 2022 campaign, leading the Huskies in both catches and receiving scores. 

He battled through a sprained MCL this past season, missing four games and finishing well behind Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk in receiving. But McMillan still averaged a strong 2.30 yards per route -- just ahead of Polk's 2.29 and 68th-best among 286 qualifying WRs in the nation.

McMillan boosted his stock at the Combine with a 4.47-second 40 time and 37-inch vertical at 6'1 and 197 pounds. He earned an 8.67 Relative Athletic Score.

Immediate Opportunity

The rookie has been a standout throughout the spring and summer and is already in the lead for the No. 3 WR job, according to Pewter Report. Here was HC Todd Bowles on McMillan in late July.

#Bucs HC Todd Bowles is one of the most blunt coaches in the NFL

it’s a very big deal that he keeps talking up Jalen McMillan pic.twitter.com/UY8p6BSzGX

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) July 31, 2024

Bowles and WRs coach Bryan McClendon have consistently talked up McMillan's positional versatility. That's important with WR Chris Godwin expected to play more in the slot this year. McMillan played 72% of his preseason snaps out wide, so the Bucs seem to be prepping him for that role.

McMillan faces tough target competition from Godwin and WR Mike Evans. But this is a talented rookie who will be on the field a lot under new OC Liam Coen, a Sean McVay disciple who figures to deploy a bunch of three-WR sets. That's enough to make McMillan worth betting on at a dirt-cheap ADP.

  

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Ready For More Must-Have Sleepers?

Our full list of 2024 fantasy football sleepers includes:

• A second-year QB with breakout upside
• A big-play RB on a potential top-5 offense
• The second-year WR you're overlooking
• A former top-seven TE ready to bounce back this season

 

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