Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 3

 

Welcome to Week 3’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

We now have two week’s worth of 2024 data at this point, which is good but still not great. 

We’re just starting to get a good idea of what all these offenses and defenses will look like this season. But a lot of the data can still be misleading.

So be careful not to weigh matchups too heavily. And, of course, check the Week 3 Rankings and the start/sit advice on your Team Intel page.

Good luck in Week 3!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Lions at Cardinals (51.5)

2. Eagles at Saints (49.5)

3. Ravens at Cowboys (47.5)

4. Commanders at Bengals (47.0)

t-5. Chiefs at Falcons (46.5)

t-5. Texans at Vikings (46.5)

 

Lowest Game Totals

27. Broncos at Buccaneers (41.0)

28. Panthers at Raiders (40.0)

29. Patriots at Jets (39.0)

30. Giants at Browns (38.5)

31. Packers at Titans (37.0)

32. Chargers at Steelers (34.5)

 

Highest Implied Points

t-1. Lions (27.25)

t-1. Bengals (27.25)

3. Saints (26.0)

t-4. 49ers (25.5)

t-4. Bills (25.5)

t-6. Chiefs (24.75)

t-6. Ravens (24.75)

 

Lowest Implied Points

27. Broncos (17.5)

28. Panthers (17.25)

29. Packers (17.0)

t-30. Chargers (16.5)

t-30. Patriots (16.5)

32. Giants (16.0)

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Eagles (66.5)

2. Lions (65.5)

3. Texans (64.7)

4. Browns (64.5)

5. Ravens (63.7)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Steelers (61.5)

29. Chargers (61.1)

30. Patriots (61.0)

31. Giants (60.6)

32. Panthers (60.1)

 

Fastest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

1. Chiefs at Falcons (26.45 seconds)

2. Lions at Cardinals (26.5 seconds)

3. Dolphins at Seahawks (26.6 seconds)

4. Bears at Colts (26.7 seconds)

5. Ravens at Cowboys (27.35 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games

(Average of neutral seconds/snap)

28. Broncos at Buccaneers (30.0 seconds)

29. Chargers at Steelers (30.1 seconds)

30. Patriots at Jets (30.45 seconds)

31. Commanders at Bengals (30.8 seconds)

32. Panthers at Raiders (33.1 seconds)

 

Weather Concerns

No weather issues this week!

 

Quarterback

5 Best Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

1. Saints vs. Eagles (+111.0%)

2. Buccaneers vs. Broncos (+109.0%)

3. Bills vs. Jaguars (+106.6%)

4. Seahawks vs. Dolphins (+104.4%)

5. Bengals vs. Commanders (+74.1%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Joe Burrow vs. Commanders

2. Kirk Cousins vs. Chiefs

3. Jared Goff at Cardinals

4. Brock Purdy at Rams

5. Bo Nix at Buccaneers

 

5 Worst Passing Matchups 

(sum of pass offense DVOA and opponent pass defense DVOA)

28. Texans at Vikings (-17.9%)

29. Steelers vs. Chargers (-20.2%)

30. Dolphins at Seahawks (-24.0%)

31. Broncos at Buccaneers (-29.1%)

32. Panthers at Raiders (-45.6%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Matt Stafford vs. 49ers

29. Daniel Jones at Browns

30. Gardner Minshew vs. Panthers

31. Dak Prescott vs. Ravens

32. Jacoby Brissett at Jets

 

Sneaky Starters

Derek Carr, Saints

Carr sits fourth among QBs in fantasy points, despite ranking 31st in pass attempts. He's averaging an absurd 11.4 yards per attempt with an even more absurd 12.8% TD rate.

Carr is playing awesome, leading the league in both Pro Football Focus passing grade and NFL Next Gen Stats' completion rate over expected. And OC Klint Kubiak is in his bag, deploying high rates of pre-snap motion and play action to work receivers wide open.

Carr has a good chance to stay hot in Week 3 at home for the Eagles, who rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.

 

Baker Mayfield, Bucs

Mayfield has opened his 2024 season with QB2 and QB5 fantasy finishes. He leads all QBs in total fantasy points.

He should keep rolling in Sunday's home game against the Broncos, who sit 31st in pass defense DVOA.

Tampa Bay's 23.5-point implied total is 10th-highest on the week.

 

Geno Smith, Seahawks

After a quiet opener, Smith was excellent in Week 2. He racked up 327 yards and a score on a 75% completion rate, despite his receivers dropping five passes. Smith ranked third in PFF passing grade on the week.

Sunday's game vs. the Dolphins lost some juice with the absence of QB Tua Tagovailoa. But it's still a good matchup for Smith. Miami ranks 30th in both pass defense DVOA and PFF pass coverage grade.

  

Running Back

5 Best Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

1. Saints vs. Eagles (+62.1%)

2. Ravens at Cowboys (+46.9%)

3. Falcons vs. Chiefs (+16.5%)

4. Titans vs. Packers (+12.5%)

5. 49ers at Rams (+9.1%)

 

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Ravens at Cowboys

2. Jaguars at Bills

3. Broncos at Buccaneers

4. Raiders vs. Panthers

5. 49ers at Rams

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups 

(sum of rush offense DVOA and opponent rush defense DVOA)

28. Dolphins at Seahawks (-39.3%)

29. Broncos at Buccaneers (-41.0%)

30. Raiders vs. Panthers (-45.3%)

31. Buccaneers vs. Broncos (-47.5%)

32. Steelers vs. Chargers (-51.5%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Chiefs at Falcons

29. Falcons vs. Chiefs

30. Vikings vs. Texans

31. Eagles at Saints

32. Cardinals vs. Lions

 

Sneaky Starters

Zack Moss, Bengals

Moss hasn't delivered much in the box score yet, but the usage suggests better days are ahead.

Moss played 65% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and spiked to 82% last week. He's out-carried RB Chase Brown 21 to seven and out-targeted him five to three.

Week 3 brings a prime breakout spot for Moss. His Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites with a 27.25-point implied total for a home game against the Commanders, who have allowed 4.6 yards per carry to RBs.

 

Zamir White, Raiders

Stoppable force meets moveable object in Sunday's Raiders-Panthers game.

Vegas' run game has been anemic, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. The Panthers, meanwhile, have been gashed for 333 yards on 4.9 yards per carry by RBs through two games.

With the Raiders 5.5-point home favorites this weekend, I'm betting on White having one of his better games of the season.

  

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Bengals vs. Commanders

2. Cardinals vs. Lions

3. Saints vs. Eagles

4. Rams vs. 49ers

5. Jets vs. Patriots

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Dolphins at Seahawks

29. Packers at Titans

30. Jaguars at Bills

31. Steelers vs. Chargers

32. Buccaneers vs. Broncos

 

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Bengals WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Andrei Iosivas vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Noah Igbinoghene, and Mike Sainristil

Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed vs. Eagles CBs Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, and Avonte Maddox

Cardinals WRs Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch vs. Lions CBs Carlton Davis, Terrion Arnold, and Amik Robertson

Raiders WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Troy Hill

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk vs. Rams CBs Tre White and Cobie Durant

Bucs WR Chris Godwin vs. Broncos CB Ja’Quan McMillian

Browns WRs Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore vs. Giants CBs Deonte Banks, Cordale Flott, and Andru Phillips

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Dolphins RB Kader Kohou

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Steelers CB Beanie Bishop

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert vs. Ravens CBs Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens, and Ar’Darius Washington

Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Seahawks CBs Riq Woolen, Tre Brown, and Devon Witherspoon

Giants WR Malik Nabers vs. Browns CBs Greg Newsome and Martin Emerson

Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Broncos CB Pat Surtain

Colts WR Michael Pittman vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed vs. Titans WRs L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, and Roger McCreary

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Patriots WRs Ja’Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn, and Demario Douglas vs. Jets CBs Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter

 

Sneaky Starters

Jerry Jeudy, Browns

Jeudy's 2024 is off to a solid start, with PPR finishes of WR33 and WR27. He's drawn an 18.4% target share and accounted for a team-high 37% of the air yards.

He gets his best matchup of the young season this week against the Giants, who rank 28th in pass defense DVOA. Their two outside CBs -- Deonte Banks and Cor'dale Flott -- rank 86th and 97th, respectively, among 97 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus coverage grades.

 

Ladd McConkey, Chargers

Sunday's Chargers-Steelers game could be a total stinkfest from a fantasy perspective (35.5-point over/under).

But McConkey's individual matchup is strong. While WR Quentin Johnston will be dealing with CB Joey Porter Jr. in primary coverage, McConkey gets CB Beanie Bishop in the slot. The rookie ranks 87th in Pro Football Focus coverage grades and 91st in passer rating allowed in coverage among 97 qualifying CBs.

 

Greg Dortch, Cardinals

The Lions have been crushed by slot receivers through two weeks:

• Cooper Kupp: 14-110-1 (21 targets)
• Chris Godwin: 7-117-1 (8 targets)

Dortch is not Kupp or Godwin, of course. But this is a nice matchup. Lions slot CB Amik Robertson ranks 65th among 97 qualifying CBs in Pro Football Focus' coverage grades.

Dortch was added to the injury report on Friday and is listed as questionable. But ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Sunday morning that Dortch is expected to play.

  

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Falcons vs. Chiefs

2. 49ers at Rams

3. Raiders vs. Panthers

4. Cowboys vs. Ravens

5. Texans at Vikings

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Lions at Cardinals

29. Bills vs. Jaguars

30. Rams vs. 49ers

31. Packers at Titans

32. Bengals vs. Commanders

 

Sneaky Starter

Hunter Henry, Patriots

Henry was the clear focal point of New England's passing game in Week 2, drawing a gargantuan 44.4% target share. He turned his 12 looks into eight catches and 109 yards.

Expect Henry to again be featured on Thursday night against the Jets, whose elite trio of CBs figure to erase the Patriots' WRs.

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Packers at Titans

2. Browns vs. Giants

3. Raiders vs. Panthers

4. Seahawks vs. Dolphins

5. Buccaneers vs. Broncos

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Jets vs. Patriots

29. Steelers vs. Chargers

30. Broncos at Buccaneers

31. Lions at Cardinals

32. Eagles at Saints

 

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 3 Streaming DSTs.

 

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Harrison Butker at Falcons

2. Joey Slye at Jets

3. Daniel Carlson vs. Panthers

4. Brandon Aubrey vs. Ravens

5. Cairo Santos at Colts

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

28. Cam Little at Bills

29. Joshua Karty vs. 49ers

30. Wil Lutz at Buccaneers

31. Cameron Dicker at Steelers

32. Chris Boswell vs. Chargers

 

Sneaky Starter

Matt Prater, Cardinals

Prater has nailed two FGs in each of the season's first two games, while racking up seven total XPs.

He'll be kicking at home this weekend vs. the Lions in the game with the week's highest over/under (51.5 points).