Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 2

 

Welcome to Week 2’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

An important note: All the data below is based on Week 1 results. That’s a tiny sample size – even for the game of fantasy football which is largely based on small sample sizes.

So be careful not to read too deeply into the matchup data. And, of course, check the Week 2 Rankings and the start/sit advice on your Team Intel page.

Good luck in Week 2!

 

Highest Game Totals

1. Buccaneers at Lions (51.5)

t-2. Bills at Dolphins (48.5)

t-3. Rams at Cardinals (48.0)

t-3. Bengals at Chiefs (48.0)

5. Saints at Cowboys (47.0)

 

Lowest Game Totals

t-28. Raiders at Ravens (41.0)

t-28. Jets at Titans (41.0)

t-30. Chargers at Panthers (39.0)

t-30. Seahawks at Patriots (39.0)

32. Steelers at Broncos (36.5)

 

Highest Implied Points

1. Lions (29.5)

2. Chiefs (27.25)

3. Cowboys (26.75)

4. Eagles (26.5)

t-5. 49ers (25.5)

t-5. Texans (25.5)

t-5. Dolphins (25.5)

  

Lowest Implied Points

28. Titans (18.5)

29. Patriots (17.5)

30. Broncos (17.0)

31. Panthers (16.75)

32. Raiders (16.25)

  

Most Projected Plays

1. Eagles (66.5)

2. Lions (65.2)

3. Browns (64.7)

4. Bills (64.5)

5. Jaguars (64.5)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

28. Titans (61.0)

29. Steelers (61.0)

30. Packers (60.8)

31. Raiders (60.7)

32. Patriots (60.6)

 

Weather Concerns

No significant weather concerns this week.

 

Quarterback

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Daniels Jones at Commanders (+29.4%)

2. Kirk Cousins at Eagles (+28.5%)

3. Bryce Young vs. Chargers (+19.2%)

4. Caleb Williams at Texans (+16.8%)

5. Jalen Hurts vs. Falcons (+16.7%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Sam Darnold vs. 49ers (-17.7%)

29. Trevor Lawrence vs. Browns (-18.8%)

30. Justin Herbert at Panthers (-26.2%)

31. Gardner Minshew at Ravens (-28.7%)

32. Will Levis vs. Jets (-29.5%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Justin Fields, Steelers

Fields played well enough in Week 1, finishing seventh in Pro Football Focus passing grade. 

That didn’t result in big passing numbers (156-0-0), but he was busy on the ground. Fields carried 14 times for 57 yards. His 10 designed runs were tied for most among QBs in the opening week.

Fields is expected to get another start this weekend against the Broncos, who ranked 31st in run defense DVOA last year and coughed up 146 yards and 2 TDs on the ground to Seattle last week.

Don’t expect big passing numbers out of Fields, but his rushing projection gives him a nice fantasy floor.

Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers

Mayfield was excellent in Week 1, chucking for 289 yards and four TDs. Yes, it came against the Commanders. But it was also Baker’s first game in new OC Liam Coen’s offense. He finished sixth in Pro Football Focus passing grade for the week.

Mayfield gets a tougher Lions defense this week. But his Bucs are 7.5-point underdogs, so the passing volume should be elevated.

Mayfield racked up 349 yards with three TDs and two INTs in last year’s playoff loss in Detroit.

 

Running Back

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers at Broncos (+32.2%)

2. Rams at Cardinals (+27.8%)

3. Packers vs. Colts (+25.6%)

4. Giants at Commanders (+25.2%)

5. Patriots vs. Seahawks (+16.4%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Raiders at Ravens (-12.8%)

29. Saints at Cowboys (-13.3%)

30. Lions vs. Buccaneers (-20.4%)

31. Buccaneers at Lions (-20.9%)

32. Cardinals vs. Rams (-24.9%)

 

Sneaky Starters

J.K. Dobbins, Chargers

Coming off his second major injury, Dobbins was a beast in Week 1. He ripped the Raiders for 135 yards and a score on 10 carries. Dobbins led all 34 qualifying RBs in rush yards over expected per attempt and yards after contact per attempt.

He also controlled passing-game work, registering a 57% route rate and 12% target share. That raises Dobbins’ weekly floor and ceiling, even if he continues splitting rushing work with RB Gus Edwards.

Sunday’s game vs. the Panthers looks like a total mismatch. Carolina already looked like one of the league’s worst run defenses – and then lost DT Derrick Brown for the season.

Devin Singletary, Giants

Singletary disappointed in Week 1. But he got the usage we expected:

• 71% snap rate
• 54% route rate
• 10 of 14 RB carries
• 5 targets (11.9% share)

That keeps him on the RB3/Flex radar for a nice Week 2 matchup against the Commanders.

 

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Giants at Commanders (+33.2%)

2. Falcons at Eagles (+32.5%)

3. Buccaneers at Lions (+17.8%)

4. Bills at Dolphins (+16.2%)

5. Panthers vs. Chargers (+15.5%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jaguars vs. Browns (-16.6%)

29. Saints at Cowboys (-17.2%)

30. Bengals at Chiefs (-21.7%)

31. Chargers at Panthers (-22.3%)

32. Titans vs. Jets (-39.3%)

 

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Buccaneers CB Tykee Smith

Rams WRs Cooper Kupp and Demarcus Robinson vs. Cardinals CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting, Starling Thomas, and Garrett Wilson.

Giants WRs Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Commanders CBs Benjamin St. Juste, Noah Igbinoghene, and Mike Sainristil

Commanders WR Terry McLaurin vs. Giants CBs Adoree Jackson and Deonte Banks

Chargers WRs Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey vs. Panthers CBs Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Troy Hill

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Titans CBs L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie

Raiders WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers vs. Ravens CBs Brandon Stephens and Marlon Humphrey

Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf vs. Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez

Jaguars WRs Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas, and Gabe Davis vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

Titans WRs Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, and Tyler Boyd vs. Jets WRs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

 

Sneaky Starters

Amari Cooper, Browns

Cooper probably doesn’t qualify as a sneaky starter, but I wanted to highlight him here because I know many fantasy owners will want to send him to the bench after the Week 1 dud.

Cooper mustered just two catches for 16 yards in the opener, but there was a lot to like about the underlying usage. Cooper drew nine targets for a 20% share. And he led the entire NFL with 170 air yards. Cooper had a ball go just off his fingertips in the fourth quarter that would have gone for a 36-yard TD.

Both he and QB Deshaun Watson need to play better. But the opportunity for a big game is there.

Cooper gets a Jaguars secondary this weekend that just lost starting CB Tyson Campbell.

Demarcus Robinson, Rams

Robinson came away from the opener with just four catches for 47 scoreless yards. But he drew seven targets, including three in the red zone and one in the end zone.

Robinson was also busy in and around the end zone over the second half of last season. He actually led the Rams with eight red-zone targets over the final seven meaningful games.

With WR Puka Nacua out – and an excellent matchup against the Cardinals – Robinson is a solid WR4/Flex play in Week 2 fantasy lineups.

 

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers at Broncos (+21.3%)

2. Bills at Dolphins (+16.7%)

3. Bears at Texans (+15.8%)

4. Packers vs. Colts (+13.4%)

5. Eagles vs. Falcons (+9.4%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Seahawks at Patriots (-12.5%)

29. Jaguars vs. Browns (-16.1%)

30. Vikings vs. 49ers (-16.6%)

31. Jets at Titans (-21.4%)

32. Chargers at Panthers (-23.7%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Colby Parkinson, Rams

As we suspected, Parkinson was the Rams’ clear lead TE in the opener. He ran a route on 82% of pass plays, a mark topped by only nine TEs in Week 1.

Parkinson came away with a 4-47-0 receiving line on five targets (10.2% share). With this level of playing time – and WR Puka Nacua out – Parkinson is a good bet for a bigger target share going forward.

He gets a plus matchup this Sunday vs. a Cardinals defense that isn’t strong anywhere.

Zach Ertz, Commanders

Ertz had strong usage in the opener: An 82% route rate and 17% target share.

That resulted in just four targets, three catches, and 28 yards – in large part because QB Jayden Daniels threw just 24 times.

Daniels’ tendency to scramble is a problem for Ertz’s target volume, but we’ll get more than 24 pass attempts most games.

Sunday brings a solid matchup against the Giants that should find the Commanders having more passing production than Week 1.

 

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Commanders vs. Giants (+76.5%)

2. Titans vs. Jets (+70.8%)

3. Chargers at Panthers (+59.2%)

4. Giants at Commanders (+51.9%)

5. Seahawks at Patriots (+50.3%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Buccaneers at Lions (-30.0%)

29. Colts at Packers (-30.6%)

30. Dolphins vs. Bills (-38.2%)

31. Saints at Cowboys (-41.2%)

32. Vikings vs. 49ers (-50.1%)

 

Sneaky Starters

Check out our top Week 2 Streaming DSTs.

  

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Greg Zuerlein at Titans (+41.0%)

2. Brayden Narveson vs. Colts (+35.9%)

3. Graham Gano at Commanders (+33.4)

4. Jake Elliott vs. Falcons (+30.0%)

5. Nick Folk vs. Jets (+18.6%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2023 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

28. Jason Sanders vs. Bills (-14.2%)

29. Dustin Hopkins at Jaguars (-15.1%)

30. Tyler Bass at Dolphins (-15.5%)

31. Evan McPherson at Chiefs (-24.4%)

32. Cam Little vs. Browns (-28.8%)

 

Sneaky Starter

Jake Bates, Lions

Bates connected on both of his XPs and both of his FGs in his NFL debut last week, including a 32-yarder to send the game into overtime.

His Lions sport easily the week’s highest implied total at 29.5 points.

Bates remains available in 82% of Yahoo leagues.