Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 14

           

Welcome to Week 14’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 14 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 14!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Total Points Per Game
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Packers at Lions (53.0)
t-2. Bills at Rams (49.5)
t-2. Bengals at Cowboys (49.5)
4. Raiders at Buccaneers (46.5)
5. Falcons at Vikings (46.0)
t-6. Panthers at Eagles (45.0)
t-6. Jets at Dolphins (45.0)

       

Lowest Game Totals

10. Browns at Steelers (43.5)
11. Chargers at Chiefs (43.0)
12. Saints at Giants (41.0)
13. Jaguars at Titans (40.0)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Eagles (29.75)
t-2. Lions (28.25
3. Bengals (27.5)
4. Buccaneers (26.75)
5. Bills (26.25)
6. Vikings (26.0)
7. Dolphins (25.75)

     

Lowest Implied Points

22. Jets (19.25)
23. Browns (18.5)
24. Jaguars (18.25)
25. Giants (18.0)
26. Panthers (15.75)

 

Total Points Per Game

Who's playing in shootouts? Who's playing in low-scoring games?

Here's where every team ranks in points per game + points allowed per game. (I particularly like using this data when looking for games to stack in DFS.)

         

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Eagles (65.8)
2. Chiefs (65.6)
3. Steelers (64.8)
4. Lions (64.0)
5. Dolphins (63.9)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

22. Jets (59.8)
23. Chargers (59.6)
24. Cardinals (59.2)
25. Panthers (58.4)
26. Jaguars (58.2)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

       

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Bengals at Cowboys (26.6 seconds)
2. Saints at Giants (26.7 seconds)
3. Browns at Steelers (27.0 seconds)
4. Bills at Rams (27.1 seconds)
5. Panthers at Eagles (27.2 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

9. Falcons at Vikings (28.3 seconds)
10. Chargers at Chiefs (28.4 seconds)
11. Jets at Dolphins (28.5 seconds)
12. Bears at 49ers (30.0 seconds)
13. Packers at Lions (30.6 seconds)

        

Weather Concerns

Saints at Giants

Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 25-30. We're not adjusting projections for this game, but we could see some deep passes and kicks impacted. Hopefully you're not relying too heavily on these passing games.

Browns at Steelers

The forecast calls for 10-15 mph winds with gusts up around 25 mph at kickoff. But that dies down to 5-10 mph and gusts of 20 mph by the end of the game. We don't expect much of a weather impact here and aren't moving anyone from this game in the Week 14 Rankings.

      

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Bills at Rams (+55.3%)
2. Buccaneers vs. Raiders (+43.3%)
3. Bengals at Cowboys (+42.4%)
4. Vikings vs. Falcons (+40.6%)
5. Eagles vs. Panthers (+39.5%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

22. Falcons at Vikings (+8.2%)
23. Giants vs. Saints (-1.2%)
24. Bears at 49ers (-7.4%)
25. Browns at Steelers (-21.5%)
26. Panthers at Eagles (-26.0%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Will Levis vs. Jaguars (+40%)
2. Aidan O'Connell at Buccaneers (+31%)
3. Cooper Rush vs. Bengals (+27%)
4. Jalen Hurts vs. Panthers (+19%)
5. Joe Burrow at Cowboys (+17%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

22. Bryce Young at Eagles (-13%)
23. Aaron Rodgers at Dolphins (-17%)
24. Brock Purdy vs. Bears (-18%)
25. Matthew Stafford vs. Bills (-21%)
26. Jameis Winston at Steelers (-26%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Eagles vs. Panthers (+20.7%)
2. Lions vs. Packers (+6.2%)
3. 49ers vs. Bears (+4.1%)
4. Giants vs. Saints (+3.6%)
5. Bills at Rams (+2.9%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

22. Seahawks at Cardinals (-27.8%)
23. Falcons at Vikings (-28.2%)
24. Browns at Steelers (-28.6%)
25. Panthers at Eagles (-31.2%)
26. Raiders at Buccaneers (-39.6%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Eagles vs. Panthers (+45%)
2. Rams vs. Bills (+24%)
3. Titans vs. Jaguars (+24%)
4. Jets at Dolphins (+14%)
5. 49ers vs. Bears (+14%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Vikings vs. Falcons (-15%)
23. Panthers at Eagles (-18%)
24. Falcons at Vikings (-24%)
25. Packers at Lions (-28%)
26. Chargers at Chiefs (-37%)

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Titans vs. Jaguars (+22%)
2. Falcons at Vikings (+18%)
3. Vikings vs. Falcons (+18%)
4. Steelers vs. Browns (+17%)
5. Cowboys vs. Bengals (+16%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Dolphins vs. Jets (-13%)
23. Lions vs. Packers (-14%)
24. 49ers vs. Bears (-16%)
25. Bears at 49ers (-17%)
26. Panthers at Eagles (-19%)

         

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Vikings CBs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Falcons CBs A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes, and Dee Alford

Falcons WRs Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud vs. Vikings CBs Fabian Moreau, Shaq Griffin, and Byron Murphy

Giants WRs Malik Nabers, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor, and Ugo Amadi

Bills WR Khalil Shakir vs. Rams CB Quentin Lake

Titans WRs Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Jaguars CBs Ronald Darby and Montaric Brown

Steelers WRs Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, and Calvin Austin vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson, and Cooper Kupp vs. Bills CBs Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, and Taron Johnson

Jets WRs Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson vs. Dolphins CBs Jalen Ramsey, Storm Duck, and Kader Kohou

Browns WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Panthers WRs Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay, and Cooper DeJean

       

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Buccaneers vs. Raiders (+38%)
2. Eagles vs. Panthers (+37%)
3. Lions vs. Packers (+31%)
4. Titans vs. Jaguars (+29%)
5. Chargers at Chiefs (+28%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Dolphins vs. Jets (-21%)
23. Bears at 49ers (-23%)
24. Chiefs vs. Chargers (-30%)
25. Packers at Lions (-37%)
26. Saints at Giants (-38%)

     

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers vs. Browns (+100%)
2. Saints at Giants (+76%)
3. Buccaneers vs. Raiders (+74%)
4. Jaguars at Titans (+55%)
5. Cardinals vs. Seahawks (+44%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

22. Raiders at Buccaneers (-20%)
23. Bills at Rams (-26%)
24. Lions vs. Packers (-45%)
25. Packers at Lions (-54%)
26. Rams vs. Bills (-66%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Chase McLaughlin vs. Raiders (+43%)
2. Anders Carlson at Dolphins (+39%)
3. Jake Elliott vs. Panthers (+34%)
4. Will Reichard vs. Falcons (+31%)
5. Jake Moody vs. Bears (+16%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

22. Joshua Karty vs. Bills (-23%)
23. Younghoe Koo at Vikings (-24%)
24. Dustin Hopkins at Steelers (-25%)
25. Jake Bates vs. Packers (-26%)
26. Matthew Wright vs. Chargers (-34%)