Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter - Week 12

       

Welcome to Week 12’s Matchups That Matter.

The goal of this article is to give you a look into the process that fuels our weekly projections and rankings.

The information below is all stuff that we use when formulating those rankings. Hopefully taking a look through it helps you make better lineup decisions each week.

As always, you should check the Week 12 Rankings and your Team Intel page for customized start/sit advice.

Good luck in Week 12!

   

Jump to:

• Game Totals
• Implied Points
• Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected
• Projected Plays
• Pace Matchups
• Weather Concerns
• Quarterback Matchups
• Running Back Matchups
• Wide Receiver Matchups
• Tight End Matchups
• Defense/Special Teams Matchups
• Kicker Matchups

       

Highest Game Totals

1. Ravens at Chargers (51.0)
2. Lions at Colts (50.5)
3. Eagles at Rams (49.0)
t-4. Cardinals at Seahawks (47.5)
t-4. 49ers at Packers (47.5)

       

Lowest Game Totals

9. Buccaneers at Giants (41.5)
10. Broncos at Raiders (41.0)
11. Titans at Texans (40.5)
12. Vikings at Bears (39.5)
13. Steelers at Browns (36.5)

                 

Highest Implied Points

1. Lions (29.25)
2. Commanders (27.5)
3. Ravens (27.0)
t-4. Dolphins (26.75)
t-4. Chiefs (26.75)

   

Lowest Implied Points

t-22. Cowboys (17.5)
t-22. Raiders (17.5)
t-24. Titans (16.25)
t-24. Panthers (16.25)
26. Browns (16.0)

 

Plays, Pace, and Pass Rate Over Expected

Here's where every team stands in plays per game, neutral pace (average seconds per snap), and Pass Rate Over Expected over the last five weeks:

       

Projected Plays

The chart below shows how many plays we're projecting each team to run vs. the league average for the week. More plays = more chances for fantasy points.

 

Most Projected Plays

1. Chiefs (65.8)
2. Eagles (65.5)
3. Lions (65.3)
4. Commanders (63.7)
5. Dolphins (63.6)
6. Texans (63.5)

 

Fewest Projected Plays

22. Raiders (60.8)
23. Cardinals (60.7)
24. Packers (60.6)
25. Titans (60.4)
26. Panthers (58.1)

       

Pace Matchups 

The chart below displays how each game stacks up in terms of pace vs. the league average for the week. Pace is calculated by averaging the situation-neutral seconds per snap over the last five weeks from both teams in each game. Faster-paced games often produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.

 

Fastest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

1. Cowboys at Commanders (25.0 seconds)
2. Buccaneers at Giants (26.6 seconds)
3. Cardinals at Seahawks (26.7 seconds)
4. Steelers at Browns (27.0 seconds)
5. Lions at Colts (27.1 seconds)

 

Slowest-Paced Games (Average of neutral seconds per snap)

10. Vikings at Bears (28.6 seconds)
11. Chiefs at Panthers (28.8 seconds)
12. 49ers at Packers (29.6 seconds)
13. Titans at Texans (30.2 seconds)

      

Weather Concerns

Steelers at Browns

Temperatures in the mid-30s with 75% chance of precipitation and winds of 10-15 mph. We'll see what the weather looks like closer to kickoff, but this might be enough to slash passing and kicking projections. This game currently has a 36.5-point over/under.

    

Quarterback

Passing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's pass offense DVOA vs. their opponent's pass defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

1. Commanders vs. Cowboys (+62.6%)
2. Ravens at Chargers (+62.3%)
3. Chiefs at Panthers (+50.8%)
4. 49ers at Packers (+46.1%)
5. Buccaneers at Giants (+44.6%)

   

5 Worst Passing Matchups (sum of pass offense DVOA and pass defense DVOA)

22. Raiders vs. Broncos (-18.0%)
23. Titans at Texans (-18.3%)
24. Panthers vs. Chiefs (-24.4%)
25. Bears vs. Vikings (-29.2%)
26. Browns vs. Steelers (-32.2%)

 

5 Best QB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Tommy DeVito vs. Buccaneers (+34%)
2. Justin Herbert vs. Ravens (+26%)
3. Patrick Mahomes at Panthers (+23%)
4. C.J. Stroud vs. Titans (+14%)
5. Jared Goff at Colts (+13%)

 

5 Worst QB Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

22. Matt Stafford vs. Eagles (-22%)
23. Gardner Minshew vs. Broncos (-22%)
24. Sam Darnold at Bears (-23%)
25. Drake Maye at Dolphins (-23%)
26. Jameis Winston vs. Steelers (-25%)

   

Running Back

Rushing Matchups

The chart below plots each team's run offense DVOA vs. their opponent's run defense DVOA.

 

5 Best Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

1. Lions at Colts (+12.3%)
2. Ravens at Chargers (+10.6%)
3. Chiefs at Panthers (+8.9%)
4. Buccaneers at Giants (+5.4%)
5. Packers vs. 49ers (+5.0%)

 

5 Worst Rushing Matchups (sum of run offense DVOA and run defense DVOA)

t-22. Panthers vs. Chiefs (-35.7%)
t-22. Browns vs. Steelers (-35.7%)
24. Bears vs. Vikings (-43.8%)
25. Titans at Texans (-44.1%)
26. Raiders vs. Broncos (-53.9%)

       

5 Best RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs at Panthers (+46%)
2. Broncos at Raiders (+21%)
3. Commanders vs. Cowboys (+17%)
4. Patriots at Dolphins (+9%)
5. Vikings at Bears (+9%)

 

5 Worst RB Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Ravens at Chargers (-17%)
23. Titans at Texans (-22%)
24. Colts vs. Lions (-24%)
25. Bears vs. Vikings (-25%)
26. Panthers vs. Chiefs (-39%)

     

Wide Receiver

5 Best WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chargers vs. Ravens (+36%)
2. Giants vs. Buccaneers (+18%)
3. Ravens at Chargers (+12%)
4. Bears vs. Vikings (+12%)
5. Steelers at Browns (+11%)

 

5 Worst WR Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Broncos at Raiders (-16%)
23. Browns vs. Steelers (-17%)
24. Vikings at Bears (-17%)
25. Raiders vs. Broncos (-18%)
26. Rams vs. Eagles (-22%)

   

WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle vs. Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez, Marco Wilson, and Marcus Jones

Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and Jalen Tolbert vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Benjamin St. Juste, and Noah Igbinoghene

Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Browns CBs Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson, and Greg Newsome

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Giants CB Deonte Banks

Commanders WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown vs. Cowboys CBs Trevon Diggs and Caelen Carson

Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Lions CB Amik Robertson

Chiefs WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson, and Dane Jackson

 

WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rams WRs Puka Nacua, Demarcus Robinson, and Cooper Kupp vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Darius Slay, and Cooper DeJean

Texans WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell vs. Titans CBs Jarvis Brownlee, Darrell Baker, and Roger McCreary

Browns WRs Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and Beanie Bishop

Packers WRs Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed vs 49ers CBs Isaac Yiadom, Charvarius Ward, and Deommodore Lenoir

Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain

Patriots WRs Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, and Demario Douglas vs. Dolphins CBs Jalen Ramsey, Storm Duck, and Kader Kohou

       

Tight End

5 Best TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

1. Chiefs at Panthers (+57%)
2. Broncos at Raiders (+42%)
3. Lions at Colts (+41%)
4. Giants vs. Buccaneers (+24%)
5. 49eres at Packers (+23%)

 

5 Worst TE Matchups (based on 2024 adjusted fantasy points allowed)

22. Ravens at Chargers (-21%)
23. Packers vs. 49ers (-23%)
24. Rams vs. Eagles (-28%)
25. Colts vs. Lions (-30%)
26. Buccaneers at Giants (-36%)

     

Defense/Special Teams

5 Best DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Steelers at Browns (+102%)
2. Broncos at Raiders (+77%)
3. Buccaneers at Giants (+65%)
4. Dolphins vs. Patriots (+64%)
5. Texans vs. Titans (+56%)

 

5 Worst DST Matchups (based on adjusted 2024 fantasy points allowed)

22. 49ers at Packers (-30%)
23. Seahawks vs. Cardinals (-40%)
24. Colts vs. Lions (-54%)
25. Cowboys at Commanders (-62%)
26. Chargers vs. Ravens (-78%)

    

       

Kicker

5 Best K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

1. Joey Slye at Dolphins (+56%)
2. Wil Lutz at Raiders (+29%)
3. Spencer Shrader at Panthers (+28%)
4. Ka'imi Fairbairn vs. Titans (+18%)
5. Cameron Dicker vs. Ravens (+15%)

 

5 Worst K Matchups (based on 2024 fantasy points allowed)

22. Eddy Pineiro vs. Chiefs (-21%)
23. Brandon Aubrey at Commanders (-26%)
24. Dustin Hopkins vs. Steelers (-26%)
25. Justin Tucker at Chargers (-35%)
26. Cairo Santos vs. Vikings (-41%)