12-Team Half PPR Draft Strategy

 

What's Your 12-Team Half PPR Draft Strategy?

Fantasy drafts are tough. There are a ton of variables to consider each time you’re on the clock:

• Scoring system
• Positional value
• Team needs
• ADP
• Upside
• Injury risk

It’s easy to be overwhelmed and make costly draft mistakes.

And is there anything worse than seeing your top picks falter while your opponents land the late-round league winners?

The solution: A round-by-round draft strategy guide to maximize value with every pick.

The 12-team Half PPR draft strategy guide below will take you through top targets and secondary options for every pick of your draft.

We’re using our 3D Values and current ADP to pinpoint the best picks in each round.

Consider this your game plan heading into your draft.

No fantasy football draft goes exactly as planned, of course. You’ll likely need to adjust your half PPR draft strategy throughout the proceedings to maximize value.

That’s where the customized, dynamic fantasy football cheat sheet on your Draft War Room comes into play, instantly analyzing 17 value indicators each time you’re on the clock to help you make the best pick.

Combine the Draft War Room with this round-by-round game plan, and you’ll be armed with the ultimate Half PPR fantasy football draft guide.

Note: This strategy guide assumes a 16-round draft and starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 DST. The Draft War Room will help you adjust your strategy if your league settings are different.

 

   

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 1, 2, or 3

Round 1

Top target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey just barely tops WR CeeDee Lamb in our half-PPR rankings.

CMC's 22.6 half-PPR points per game last year were 2.5 more than any other RB. He set career highs in multiple categories, including:

• Yards per carry
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Missed tackles forced per attempt

McCaffrey is still only 28 and should still have at least one more big fantasy season in him.

The only downside: Our Injury Predictor gives him a 63.6% chance of injury and 3.0 projected games missed this season.

Next best: CeeDee Lamb

The Cowboy is coming off a massive 2023 season, leading all WRs in half-PPR points. He’s grown his target share and yards per route run each season, is in his prime at 25, and returns to the same offense with the same QB in 2024.

With his holdout over, Lamb is arguably the safest pick in fantasy football.

Other option

• Tyreek Hill

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top targets: Derrick Henry & De’Von Achane

It makes sense to grab a pair of RBs at this turn, especially if you took a stud WR in Round 1.

Henry remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Achane’s 11 games last year included Half PPR explosions of:

• 49.3 points
• 25.5 points
• 23.8 points
• 23.0 points
• 21.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year. 

Next Best: Travis Etienne & Isiah Pacheco

Etienne is coming off an RB4 finish in total half-PPR points; RB7 in points per game.

Perhaps Tank Bigsby steals a few more touches this season, but Etienne will remain Jacksonville's clear lead back on the ground and through the air.

Pacheco finished 15th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is now gone.

We'll see how much passing-game work newly-signed Samaje Perine steals, but we're expecting Pacheco to handle a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Jaylen Waddle
• Nico Collins

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top targets: Ken Walker & Malik Nabers

There's been a ton of positive buzz on Walker's role under Seattle's new coaching staff. He's been a rankings riser in August and is a solid value here.

Nabers has been the star of Giants camp and looked awesome in preseason action.

QB play remains a concern in New York, but talent and volume should fuel Nabers to a strong rookie season. He's a sweet value in Round 4.

Next Best: Joe Mixon & Mark Andrews

The Texans traded for Mixon this offseason and then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. That all points to Mixon operating as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that could be among the league’s best in QB C.J. Stroud's second season.

Andrews still looks like an elite fantasy TE. His Half PPR scoring average in nine healthy games last year would have led the position. And his 1.96 yards per route run ranked third among 33 TEs with 40+ targets. He’s now ranked top 6 in YPRR at his position in all six of his NFL seasons.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• James Conner
• DeVonta Smith
• Tee Higgins
• Trey McBride

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top targets: David Montgomery & Terry McLaurin

Montgomery ranked 12th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year. He may lose a bit more work to RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. But, even then, Montgomery’s goal-line role will make him a good bet to pay off this price tag. He finished sixth among RBs with 10.8 expected rushing TDs last year and third with 13 actual scores.

McLaurin has been a safe fantasy bet, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons. 2024 could be his best year yet. QB Jayden Daniels should prove to be a significant upgrade. And the departure of WR Jahan Dotson leaves McLaurin as the clear top dog in this passing game.

Next Best: Rhamondre Stevenson & Chris Godwin

After a slow start last year, Stevenson scored as a top-15 RB over his final six healthy games. The four-year, $36 million extension he signed earlier this offseason indicates that New England's new coaching staff views Stevenson as their lead back, despite the addition of RB Antonio Gibson.

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Better TD luck will make him a substantial value in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Other options

• Dak Prescott
• Raheem Mostert
• Rashee Rice
• Calvin Ridley
• Xavier Worthy
• Evan Engram

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Javonte Williams

Daniels' combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019. 

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next Best: Jonathon Brooks & Diontae Johnson

Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class – and the Panthers made him the first RB off the board. He's recovering from a November ACL tear and will miss the first four games of the season. But there's top-20 Half PPR upside over the second half of the year. The 6'0, 216-pound Brooks has three-down potential and finds weak competition in Carolina’s backfield.

QB play is a concern for Johnson after Bryce Young's ugly rookie season. But Young is capable of a year two bounce-back under new HC Dave Canales.

Plus Johnson should dominate targets in Carolina. Canales confirmed in late July that Johnson will be featured in the offense.

Other options

• Jaylen Warren
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Christian Watson
• Marquise Brown
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• David Njoku
• Dallas Goedert

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top targets: Chase Brown & Courtland Sutton

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Sutton isn't an exciting pick, but he looks like a value here. He's coming off a WR30 Half PPR finish and could see a target boost this year with the departure of WR Jerry Jeudy.

Next Best: Pat Freiermuth & Tyler Lockett

Freiermuth is coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Lockett is on the downswing of his career, finishing with his fewest half-PPR points last year since 2017. But he still ranked 35th at his position and is now outside the top 50 WRs in ADP.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• Zach Charbonnet
• Jerome Ford
• Jameson Williams
• Curtis Samuel

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top targets: Ty Chandler & Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in half-PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Next Best: Rashid Shaheed & Gabe Davis

Shaheed has flashed in limited opportunities through two NFL seasons, averaging a huge 11.1 yards per target. He looks like the Saints' clear No. 2 WR heading into 2024 and should find himself in a more creative offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. Davis finished as a top-15 Half PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• Jaleel McLaughlin
• Rico Dowdle
• Jaylen Wright
• Bucky Irving
• Ray Davis
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Luke Musgrave

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

  

 

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 4, 5, or 6

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB3 finish in Half PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Justin Jefferson

Injuries cost Jefferson seven games and parts of two others last year. But he averaged 20.3 Half PPR points in the other eight, which would have led all WRs.

Jefferson also set career highs last year in:

• Target share (30.0% in eight healthy games)
• Yards per route run
• Pro Football Focus receiving grade

QB Sam Darnold is a slight concern for Jefferson's outlook. But note that he averaged 7.5 catches, 119 yards, and 0.5 TDs across four healthy games without QB Kirk Cousins last year.

Other options

• Bijan Robinson
• Ja'Marr Chase

 

Round 2

Top target: Derrick Henry

This is a nice range for RB value in Half PPR drafts, with Henry leading the way.

He remained effective as a workhorse last year, ranking top five in carries (280), rushing yards (1,167), and rushing TDs (12). Now he get a big upgrade in supporting cast in Baltimore, where the Ravens have finished top seven in points in all three seasons QB Lamar Jackson has made 13+ starts.

Next best: De'Von Achane

Achane’s 11 games last year included Half PPR explosions of:

• 49.3 points
• 25.5 points
• 23.8 points
• 23.0 points
• 21.7 points

The 188-pounder will never be a high-volume back. But he doesn’t need to be to deliver bunches of fantasy points thanks to his big-play ability. Achane averaged a huge 7.8 yards per carry and took 13 of his 103 attempts (12.6%) for 15+ yards last year. 

Other options

• Drake London
• Chris Olave

 

Round 3

Top target: Deebo Samuel

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game. He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 15th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is now gone.

We'll see how much passing-game work newly-signed Samaje Perine steals, but we're expecting Pacheco to handle a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Jaylen Waddle
• Nico Collins

 

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between him and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 111.9 Half PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.

Next best: Ken Walker

There's been a ton of positive buzz on Walker's role under Seattle's new coaching staff. He's been a rankings riser in August and is a solid value here.

Other options

• Joe Mixon
• Malik Nabers
• DeVonta Smith
• D.K. Metcalf
• Mark Andrews

 

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Remember that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: James Conner

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished 11th at his position in Half PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Tank Dell
• Dalton Kincaid

 

Round 6

Top target: David Montgomery

Montgomery ranked 12th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year.

He may lose a bit more work to RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. But, even then, Montgomery’s goal-line role will make him a good bet to pay off this price tag. He finished sixth among RBs with 10.8 expected rushing TDs last year and third with 13 actual scores.

Next best: Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has been a safe fantasy bet, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons. 2024 could be his best year yet. QB Jayden Daniels should prove to be a significant upgrade. And the departure of WR Jahan Dotson leaves McLaurin as the clear top dog in this passing game.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Evan Engram

 

Round 7

Top target: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Half PPR points in HC Mike McDaniel’s diabolical scheme.

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into Mostert’s Round 7 price tag.

Next best: Chris Godwin

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Despite the poor TD luck, he finished 32nd among WRs in Half PPR points.

He’s expected to play more in the slot in new OC Liam Coen’s scheme, which should help Godwin’s efficiency and week-to-week consistency.

Other options

• Dak Prescott
• Tony Pollard
• Rashee Rice
• Calvin Ridley
• Xavier Worthy

 

Round 8

Top target: Javonte Williams

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: Diontae Johnson

QB play is a concern for Johnson after Bryce Young's ugly rookie season. But Young is capable of a year two bounce-back under new HC Dave Canales.

Plus Johnson should dominate targets in Carolina. Canales confirmed in late July that Johnson will be featured in the offense.

Other options

• Jonathon Brooks
• Jaylen Warren
• Marquise Brown
• David Njoku

 

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, so you could gamble that he makes it to your next pick. But we’d rather just secure him here.

The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019. 

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 12th among TE in Half PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE5 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Tyjae Spears
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Christian Watson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

 

Round 10

Top target: Chase Brown

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick, but he looks like a value here. 

He's coming off a WR30 Half PPR finish and could see a target boost this year with the departure of WR Jerry Jeudy.

Other options

• Jerome Ford
• Tyler Lockett
• Jameson Williams
• Curtis Samuel

 

Round 11

Top target: Pat Freiermuth

Highlight Freiermuth as a Round 11 target if you’re still looking for your TE1.

He’s coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Next best: Zach Charbonnet

We’ll see if Charbonnet can steal work from RB Ken Walker under Seattle’s new coaching staff. But he’s at least a high-end handcuff. Charbonnet totaled 48 carries and 12 targets in the three games Walker missed last year, finishing those weeks RB21, RB33, and RB11 in half-PPR points.

Our Injury Predictor projects Walker for 1.9 games missed this season.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• J.K. Dobbins

 

Round 12

Top target: Ty Chandler

Chandler looks like a handcuff-plus.

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved as the 1B after a nice finish to 2023.

He's also the clear handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons. A Jones injury would turn Chandler into a top-25 fantasy RB.

Next best: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Other options

• Rico Dowdle
• Jerry Jeudy
• Jakobi Meyers
• Luke Musgrave

  

Round 13

Top target: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has flashed in limited opportunities through two NFL seasons, averaging a huge 11.1 yards per target.

He looks like the Saints' clear No. 2 WR heading into 2024 and should find himself in a more creative offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Shaheed notably drew a 16.0% target share in six games without WR Michael Thomas last year (vs. 12.1% in nine games with Thomas).

Next best: Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances.

Davis finished as a top-15 Half PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• Jaleel McLaughlin
• Jaylen Wright
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Ja'Lynn Polk

  

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

 

 

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 7, 8, or 9

Round 1

Top target: Breece Hall

Hall is coming off a RB3 finish in Half PPR points ... a year after tearing an ACL ... on an offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers and finished bottom four in total yards and points.

Rodgers is back for 2024, and the Jets made some significant upgrades on the offensive line this offseason.

Hall has the upside to challenge Christian McCaffrey for the RB scoring lead.

Next best: Bijan Robinson

Robinson’s rookie campaign felt a little underwhelming – but he still finished ninth among RBs in Half PPR points.

The change from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson’s offense should mean a more fantasy-friendly role. Robinson spent the last five seasons working under Sean McVay, whose offense has produced a bunch of big RB seasons.

Other options

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jonathan Taylor

  

Round 2

Top target: Kyren Williams

It might feel a bit unnerving to spend a first- or second-round pick on a guy who was a waiver-wire darling just a year ago. But Williams was excellent last season, ranking top-10 among 49 qualifying RBs in yards after contact per attempt, rush yards over expected per attempt, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade.

Just as importantly, Williams’ volume was excellent. Only Christian McCaffrey averaged more expected PPR points per game.

Rookie RB Blake Corum figures to cut into that volume a bit. But we’re expecting Williams to remain the Rams’ clear lead back. 

Next best: Drake London

London disappointed fantasy owners last year but remained strong on a per-target and per-route basis.

Now he's freed from Arthur Smith and in what should be a much pass-heavier offense under new HC Zac Robinson. And he got a big QB upgrade with the arrival of Kirk Cousins.

It sets London up for a career-best season in 2024.

Other options

• Derrick Henry
• De'Von Achane

 

Round 3

Top target: Deebo Samuel

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game. 

He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field. Getting him in Round 3 is a fair injury-risk discount.

Next best: Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco finished 15th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year – and was even better in games without RB Jerick McKinnon, who is now gone.

We'll see how much passing-game work newly-signed Samaje Perine steals, but we're expecting Pacheco to handle a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

We wouldn’t shy away from opening your draft with three straight RBs if they happen to be the best available players.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Jaylen Waddle
• Nico Collins

 

Round 4

Top target: Cooper Kupp

Next best: Malik Nabers

Yes, QB play is a concern in New York. But Nabers should quickly emerge as the top option in the Giants offense – and potentially even a true target hog.

The No. 6 overall pick of this spring’s draft is explosive before and after the catch, averaging 17.6 yards per reception in his huge 2023 junior season at LSU.

Other options

• Ken Walker
• Joe Mixon
• DeVonta Smith
• Mark Andrews
• Trey McBride

 

Round 5

Top target: Tee Higgins

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: James Conner

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished 11th at his position in Half PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Other options

• Anthony Richardson
• Tank Dell
• Amari Cooper
• George Kittle

 

Round 6

Top target: David Montgomery

Montgomery ranked 12th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year.

He may lose a bit more work to RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. But, even then, Montgomery’s goal-line role will make him a good bet to pay off this price tag. He finished sixth among RBs with 10.8 expected rushing TDs last year and third with 13 actual scores.

Next best: Terry McLaurin

McLaurin has been a safe fantasy bet, topping 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons. 2024 could be his best year yet. QB Jayden Daniels should prove to be a significant upgrade. And the departure of WR Jahan Dotson leaves McLaurin as the clear top dog in this passing game.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Evan Engram

 

Round 7

Top target: Raheem Mostert

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Half PPR points in HC Mike McDaniel’s diabolical scheme.

There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into Mostert’s Round 7 price tag.

Next best: Chris Godwin

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Despite the poor TD luck, he finished 32nd among WRs in Half PPR points.

He’s expected to play more in the slot in new OC Liam Coen’s scheme, which should help Godwin’s efficiency and week-to-week consistency.

Other options

• Dak Prescott
• Tony Pollard
• Rashee Rice
• Calvin Ridley
• Xavier Worthy

 

Round 8

Top target: Javonte Williams

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Next best: Diontae Johnson

QB play is a concern for Johnson after Bryce Young's ugly rookie season. But Young is capable of a year two bounce-back under new HC Dave Canales.

Plus Johnson should dominate targets in Carolina. Canales confirmed in late July that Johnson will be featured in the offense.

Other options

• Jonathon Brooks
• Jaylen Warren
• Marquise Brown
• David Njoku

 

Round 9

Top target: Jayden Daniels

Daniels’ ADP is sitting in the middle of Round 10, so you could gamble that he makes it to your next pick. But we’d rather just secure him here.

The rookie’s combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019. 

Next best: Dallas Goedert

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 12th among TE in Half PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE5 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

Other options

• Brian Robinson
• Tyjae Spears
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Christian Watson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

 

Round 10

Top target: Chase Brown

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Next best: Courtland Sutton

Sutton isn't an exciting pick, but he looks like a value here. 

He's coming off a WR30 Half PPR finish and could see a target boost this year with the departure of WR Jerry Jeudy.

Other options

• Jerome Ford
• Tyler Lockett
• Jameson Williams
• Curtis Samuel

 

Round 11

Top target: Pat Freiermuth

Highlight Freiermuth as a Round 11 target if you’re still looking for your TE1.

He’s coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Next best: Zach Charbonnet

We’ll see if Charbonnet can steal work from RB Ken Walker under Seattle’s new coaching staff. But he’s at least a high-end handcuff. Charbonnet totaled 48 carries and 12 targets in the three games Walker missed last year, finishing those weeks RB21, RB33, and RB11 in half-PPR points.

Our Injury Predictor projects Walker for 1.9 games missed this season.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• J.K. Dobbins

  

Round 12

Top target: Ty Chandler

Chandler looks like a handcuff-plus.

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved as the 1B after a nice finish to 2023.

He's also the clear handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons. A Jones injury would turn Chandler into a top-25 fantasy RB.

Next best: Mike Williams

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Other options

• Rico Dowdle
• Jerry Jeudy
• Jakobi Meyers
• Luke Musgrave

 

Round 13

Top target: Rashid Shaheed

Shaheed has flashed in limited opportunities through two NFL seasons, averaging a huge 11.1 yards per target.

He looks like the Saints' clear No. 2 WR heading into 2024 and should find himself in a more creative offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.

Shaheed notably drew a 16.0% target share in six games without WR Michael Thomas last year (vs. 12.1% in nine games with Thomas).

Next best: Gabe Davis

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances.

Davis finished as a top-15 Half PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Antonio Gibson
• Jaleel McLaughlin
• Jaylen Wright
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Dontayvion Wicks
• Ja'Lynn Polk

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top target: High-upside bench stash, K & DST

Prioritize players with difference-making ceilings with your Round 14 selection. Your Draft War Room will flip to Upside Mode in the second half of your draft and highlight such players.

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

  

 

Half PPR Draft Strategy for Pick 10, 11, or 12

Rounds 1 & 2

Top targets: Jonathan Taylor & A.J. Brown

Despite ankle and thumb injuries, Taylor finished sixth among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year. He’s still in his prime at 25 and will remain a huge part of an ascending Colts offense.

Brown has finished fifth and sixth among WRs in Half PPR points in two seasons with the Eagles. Philadelphia figures to run more plays this year under new OC Kellen Moore.

Next best: Jahmyr Gibbs & Saquon Barkley

Gibbs finished 10th among RBs in Half PPR points per game as a rookie last year.

He did a ton of damage in the passing game, ranking top 10 among RBs in targets (71) and catches (51). And his share of Detroit's rushing work grew as the season went on. Gibbs went from a 29% carry share over the first half of the season 42% over the second.

Barkley turned 288 touches (in 14 games) into a RB8 finish in Half PPR points per game last year. Now he gets a huge upgrade in situation going from New York to Philadelphia.

Other options

• Kyren Williams
• Garrett Wilson
• Puka Nacua

 

Rounds 3 & 4

Top targets: Deebo Samuel & Jaylen Waddle

Samuel finished 13th among WRs in total Half PPR points last year; ninth in points per game. He remains one of the bigger injury risks in fantasy football – but also a good bet for WR1-level production when he’s on the field.

Waddle missed three games and parts of a couple more last season. And he scored on just four of 72 catches – a well-below-average 5.6% TD rate.

But he still finished 22nd among WRs in half-PPR points per game, setting a career high and ranking eighth among 84 qualifying WRs in yards per route run.

This is a young, explosive WR in a strong offense that still boasts WR1 upside.

Next best: Cooper Kupp & Malik Nabers

Puka Nacua might be the Rams' new No. 1 WR. But the gap between him and Kupp likely isn't as big as current ADP suggests.

In 11 healthy regular-season games together, Nacua out-targeted Kupp just 95 to 94. Kupp's 111.9 Half PPR points per game in those outings ranked 20th among WRs.

QB play is a concern in New York. But Nabers should quickly emerge as the top option in the Giants offense – and potentially even a true target hog.

The No. 6 overall pick of this spring’s draft is explosive before and after the catch, averaging 17.6 yards per reception in his huge 2023 junior season at LSU.

Other options

• Jalen Hurts
• Ken Walker
• Joe Mixon
• Mark Andrews

 

Rounds 5 & 6

Top targets: James Conner & Tee Higgins

Conner remained excellent in his age-28 season last year. In fact, he set career highs and ranked top 5 among 49 qualifying RBs in:

• Yards per carry
• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• PFF rushing grade

Conner finished 11th at his position in Half PPR points per game. Despite the addition of rookie Trey Benson, expect Conner to again be Arizona's clear lead back in 2024.

Higgins battled through injuries last year but still flashed week-winning upside with four top-10 finishes among his 12 outings. He's an easy bounce-back bet this year with better health for both he and QB Joe Burrow.

Don't forget that Higgins ranked top-14 in Half PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022. He's still just 25.

Next best: David Montgomery & Anthony Richardson

Montgomery ranked 12th among RBs in Half PPR points per game last year. He may lose a bit more work to RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. But, even then, Montgomery’s goal-line role will make him a good bet to pay off this price tag. He finished sixth among RBs with 10.8 expected rushing TDs last year and third with 13 actual scores.

Richardson boasts exciting upside. He has a big arm, elite rushing upside, and plays under proven talent maximizer Shane Steichen. Richardson has the potential to push Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen for the QB scoring lead. Just note that we'll find plenty more QB value in the next few rounds.

Other options

• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Tank Dell
• Terry McLaurin
• Amari Cooper
• George Kittle
• Kyle Pitts

 

Rounds 7 & 8

Top targets: Raheem Mostert & Chris Godwin

Mostert is coming off a career-best season, finishing second among RBs in Half PPR points in HC Mike McDaniel’s diabolical scheme. There are obvious regression and durability concerns heading into 2024 – but those are more than baked into Mostert’s Round 7 price tag.

Godwin scored just twice last year but ranked 15th among WRs in catches (83) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,024). Despite the poor TD luck, he finished 32nd among WRs in Half PPR points.

He’s expected to play more in the slot in new OC Liam Coen’s scheme, which should help Godwin’s efficiency and week-to-week consistency.

Next best: Javonte Williams & Jonathon Brooks

This is a nice range of the draft for RB value.

Blame the 2022 multi-ligament knee injury for Williams’ inefficient 2023. He should be much closer to pre-injury form this season. Williams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and caught 59 passes across his first 21 NFL games.

Brooks is our top-rated rookie in the 2024 RB class – and the Panthers made him the first RB off the board. He's recovering from a November ACL tear and will miss the first four games of the season. But the 6'0, 216-pounder has three-down potential and finds weak competition in Carolina’s backfield. There’s top-20 Half PPR upside here over the second half of the year.

Other options

• Tony Pollard
• Rashee Rice
• Calvin Ridley
• Xavier Worthy
• Jake Ferguson
• David Njoku

 

Rounds 9 & 10

Top targets: Jayden Daniels & Dallas Goedert

Daniels’ combination of deep-passing and rushing ability gives him immediate top-5 fantasy upside. 

Washington is a nice landing spot, with a solid group of weapons and an OC in Kliff Kingsbury who has experience with young, mobile QBs. Kingsbury helped Kyler Murray to a QB11 finish in fantasy points per game as a rookie back in 2019. 

Goedert is coming off an underwhelming 2023 season, missing three games and finishing 12th among TE in Half PPR points per game.

But that followed TE10 and TE5 finishes the previous two years. Goedert should remain a big part of a high-scoring Eagles offense that figures to play faster this season under new OC Kellen Moore.

Next best: Chase Brown & Christian Watson

Brown has been a big training-camp riser. He's drawn praise from coaches and beat writers while reportedly taking the majority of the first-team reps.

A big-play back on a potential top-5 offense, Brown has exciting fantasy upside.

Watson's hamstrings were a problem again last year, but he remained in a very fantasy-friendly role when healthy. Watson registered a big 15.6-yard average target depth. And his 15 end-zone targets led the Packers and ranked sixth among all WRs, despite Watson missing eight games. There's still exciting upside here if he can stay on the field.

Other options

• Tyjae Spears
• Brian Robinson
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Courtland Sutton

 

Rounds 11 & 12

Top targets: Pat Freiermuth & Mike Williams

Prioritize Freiermuth here if you’re still looking for your TE1.

He’s coming off a disappointing 2023, but this offseason was good to him. The Steelers upgraded at QB with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields; hired a TE-loving OC in Arthur Smith; and traded away target hog Diontae Johnson.

Williams is coming off a September 2023 ACL. But that's where the bad news ends.

The good news:

• He's turned in three straight top-24 finishes in PPR points per game.
• He has a clear path to the No. 2 WR job for the Jets.
• He sports a career 10% TD rate.
• His QB, Aaron Rodgers, owns a career 6.2% TD rate.

Williams’ low-volume, high-TD projection makes him especially valuable in Half PPR drafts.

Next best: Zach Charbonnet and Ty Chandler

We’ll see if Charbonnet can steal work from RB Ken Walker under Seattle’s new coaching staff. But he’s at least a high-end handcuff. Charbonnet totaled 48 carries and 12 targets in the three games Walker missed last year, finishing those weeks RB21, RB33, and RB11 in half-PPR points.

Our Injury Predictor projects Walker for 1.9 games missed this season.

Chandler looks like a handcuff-plus.

The Vikings signed Aaron Jones to be their lead back -- but expect Chandler to remain plenty involved as the 1B after a nice finish to 2023.

He's also the clear handcuff to Jones, who turns 30 in December and has missed multiple games in five of seven NFL seasons. A Jones injury would turn Chandler into a top-25 fantasy RB.

Other options

• Trevor Lawrence
• J.K. Dobbins
• Jerry Jeudy
• Jakobi Meyers
• Khalil Shakir
• Rashid Shaheed
• Luke Musgrave

 

Rounds 13 & 14

Top targets: Antonio Gibson & Dontayvion Wicks

Gibson should play a passing-down role behind a healthy Rhamondre Stevenson. And if Stevenson misses time, Gibson would likely dominate New England's backfield work.

Wicks beat both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in targets per route and yards per route as a rookie last year. He has a chance in 2024 to win a top-three WR job on an ascending Packers offense.

Next best: Jaleel McLaughlin & Gabe Davis

McLaughlin is coming off an efficient rookie season and seems primed to play a bigger role this year.

Don’t expect Davis to become a consistent week-to-week producer in Jacksonville. But he should continue to provide spike performances. Davis finished as a top-15 Half PPR WR six times last season.

Other options

• Deshaun Watson
• Jaylen Wright
• Ray Davis
• Bucky Irving
• Jordan Mason
• MarShawn Lloyd
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Darnell Mooney
• Josh Downs

  

Rounds 15 & 16

Top targets: K & DST

Use your final two picks on a K and DST. We typically recommend working the waiver wire and playing matchups at both positions throughout the season. Here are a few Ks and DSTs with favorable Week 1 matchups:

Kickers

• Ka'imi Fairbairn (at IND)
• Jason Sanders (vs. JAC)
• Michael Badgley (vs. LAR)
• Tyler Bass (vs. ARI)

DSTs

• NO (vs. CAR)
• CIN (vs. NE)
• CHI (vs. TEN)
• SEA (vs. DEN)

 

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The Ultimate Half PPR Draft Strategy Guide: A Customized, Dynamic Cheat Sheet

Having round-by-round strategy heading into your draft is important.

But fantasy football drafts are unpredictable. You need to be nimble. You need to adjust on the fly to capture the most value.

You need a customized, dynamic cheat sheet.

The Draft War Room takes our award-winning player projections and applies them to your league’s exact rules to give you a precise set of rankings.

Then it recalibrates throughout your draft based on 17 value indicators to make sure you’re making the absolute best pick each time you’re on the clock.

CREATE YOUR DRAFT WAR ROOM NOW!