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Fantasy Football Draft Preview: Running Backs

Few Workhorse RBs Remain

Last year marked the first time since 1990 that no RB reached 300 carries.

Only three RBs hit even 270:

• Derrick Henry
• Christian McCaffrey
• Rachaad White

The NFL continues to change, and workhorse RBs are nearing extinction.

Catches > Carries

On average, one rush attempt has equaled 0.61 PPR points over the past five seasons. 

A target? Nearly 1.62 PPR points.

Over the same stretch, RB1s averaged 55.9 catches per season. 

It’s rare to see a strict third-down back crack RB1 territory. Over the same five-year stretch, RB1s have averaged 235 carries and 9.33 rushing TDs per season.

But savvy fantasy owners know to pursue meaningful receiving production.

What Do Our Projections Say?

Head to our RB rankings, and you’ll see we have four RBs projected to hit 55+ catches:

• Christian McCaffrey
• Breece Hall
• Bijan Robinson
• Alvin Kamara

We’re OK with all four at cost, despite three of the four regularly going in the first round.

Is it advantageous to take one of the first-round RBs? 

If you answer no, you might be heading toward a Zero-RB build …

Zero-RB Strategy: How Viable?

Deciding to implement a Zero-RB strategy depends on several key factors.

Chief among them: Your league’s scoring rules and starting-lineup requirements. 

Maybe you play in a unique league where you’re required to start only one RB, two WRs, and four Flex spots.

Assuming full PPR, your Draft War Room will push WRs up the board. Simple supply-and-demand says they’re much more valuable than RBs.

League Type Matters

Best ball vs. lineup-setting matters immensely. 

In a best ball league, you’re stuck with the same roster all season. So if you wait until Round 8 or later to draft your first RB, you can’t fix a potential weakness.

Instead, you’re banking on early-round RBs underperforming – and high-end WRs delivering elite numbers.

In a lineup-setting league, you can aggressively pursue RBs in-season (trade, waiver wire). If you’re going to implement a proper Zero-RB strategy, that’s the place we recommend it.

We’re just not entering any draft locked into a specific strategy.

Plus, given a typical fantasy setup, we believe 2024 will be a down year for the Zero-RB strategy.

If a Zero-RB strategy feels too risky, you might prefer a Hero-RB strategy.

Hero-RB Strategy

With this approach, you take an early-round RB (primarily Round 1 or 2) and then wait until the middle rounds to continue addressing the position.

So for this year, you might use a Round 1 pick on Breece Hall. From there, you might wait until Round 7 to take Raheem Mostert.

Ultimately, we place value above all else, meaning you must remain flexible in your draft.

Is A Double Hero-RB Strategy Better?

With the rise of Zero-RB and Hero-RB strategies, other managers passing on RBs often creates value at the position early in drafts.

The Double Hero-RB strategy allows you to gobble up that value to be strong at the position before loading up on WR, QB, and TE.

In a Double Hero-RB Strategy, you might use a Round 2 pick on Saquon Barkley and a Round 3 pick on Isiah Pacheco.

After those picks, you could bypass RB outside of a few sleepers late in your draft.

Sleeper Running Backs

Speaking of sleepers, finding a late-round RB who blows up can change your team's fortunes. 

(Think Kyren Williams last year.)

Sometimes handcuffs or RBs in a committee can make the best sleepers as they are only one injury away from a significant workload.

Let’s hit on a few deeper sleepers ... 

Tyjae Spears

Spears had a solid rookie season backing up Derrick Henry, including an RB1 game in Week 5.

He ended the season on a high note with 2 TDs in Week 18 as well.

The Tony Pollard signing dampened Spears‘ fantasy value, but Spears may simply be the better back.

He beat Pollard in all of the following last year: 

• rush yards after contact per attempt
• PFF elusive rating
• rush yards over expected per attempt
• PFF receiving grade
• yards per route run

Spears will be in line for plenty of targets. And if Pollard goes down, he might even hold RB1 upside.

Ty Chandler

Chandler is stuck behind Aaron Jones in Minnesota, but Jones has not been the model of health. 

Our Injury Predictor gives Jones an 87.6% chance of injury and 3.1 projected games missed this year. Both rank seventh-highest among RBs.

When healthy, Jones hasn't operated as a workhorse. That should mean carries -- and even a few targets -- for Chandler throughout the season.

Chandler also finished 2023 strong, including an RB4 overall performance in Week 15 when he rushed for 132 yards and a TD.

He sports some potential standalone value -- plus RB2 upside if Jones goes down.

We highlighted Chandler in our fantasy football sleepers.

Bucky Irving

The Buccaneers selected Irving in the fourth round to strengthen a weak depth chart behind Rachaad White.

But White also proved inefficient despite his strong fantasy season in 2023:

• 44th in PFF rushing grade
• 42nd in yards after contact per carry (PFF)
• 46th in rush yards over expected per carry (NFL Next Gen Stats)

That followed similarly inefficient rushing in White's rookie year. So there's room for Irving to challenge the incumbent for snaps.

Irving’s receiving upside is also a plus. He tallied 87 receptions across two Oregon seasons and averaged 8.3 yards per catch for his college career.

Though White is likely to keep his role, Irving is the ideal “handcuff” RB who has at least some standalone value -- plus RB1 upside if White goes down.

Dominate Your League with the Perfect Draft Tool

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Shane Hallam, Writer

Shane has over 20 years of experience creating content and playing every fantasy football format including redraft, dynasty, devy, IDP, and more. He is a multi-year winner of $500 dynasty leagues on the FFPC and utilizes deep film and scheme study to enhance his fantasy performance.