Dynasty Startup Mock Draft

 

What happens when you get 12 top dynasty analysts together for a dynasty startup mock draft? 

You learn a lot about dynasty draft strategy, roster-building styles, and player valuations.

The Setup

This was a 20-round dynasty startup mock draft with PPR scoring and the following starting requirements:

• 1 QB
• 2 RBs
• 3 WRs
• 1 TE
• 1 Flex

The Drafters:

• Kyle Borgognoni, Fantasy Footballers
• Jakob Sanderson, Thinking About Thinking
• Kevin English, Draft Sharks
• Theo Gremminger, PlayerProfiler
• Matt Schauf, Draft Sharks
• Alex Korff, Draft Sharks
• Jeff Bell, Footballguys
• Alan Seslowsky, Rotowire
• Anthony Amico, Establish The Run
• Jared Smola, Draft Sharks
• Matt Price, Dynasty League Football
• Shane Hallam, Draft Sharks

Below we'll take a look at the full draft results, examine each team's final roster, and get some thoughts from each participant on how the draft played out.

  

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft Results

 

 

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft: Post-Draft Analysis

Here's a look at how these rosters stack up in terms of total 3D+ value, our proprietary measure of dynasty value.

You can also see where each team ranks in strength at each position, as well as each team's average age.

 

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft: Team-by-Team Analysis

Below you'll find each team's roster -- as well as answers to a couple of questions about their draft.

Kyle Borgognoni, Fantasy Footballers

You made Josh Allen the first QB off the board at 3.01. Are you generally looking to secure an elite QB in dynasty startups? Are you willing to take Allen even earlier than the 2-3 turn?

In a 1-QB draft, I generally like waiting on the QB position. But Allen fell to a place where I felt comfortable locking in a player who finished as the QB1 in points per game four years in a row. His rushing floor is absurd with the second-most rushing TDs of all time for a QB in only 94 career games. I don't love being the first person taking a QB, but I do think Allen is a set-it-and-forget-it for another five-plus years at minimum. Securing his WR1 (Keon Coleman) as a stack also was in the back of my mind.

How big a premium do you put on stacking in dynasty startup drafts?

Normally, I like stacking by first selecting the stud WR and then following that up later on with a discounted QB. However, with Allen being a true difference maker, I shifted my attention in the middle rounds to trying to find his WR1. Dalton Kincaid was taken earlier than I expected and thus Coleman leapt onto my radar at the 4-5 turn. It is a bit of a gamble on an unknown player, but the Bills are vacating the sixth-most targets of any team over the last five years. Stacking should not be forced in startups, but when you have the option to do it with one of the NFL's premier offenses, it felt like an added bonus where I selected Coleman.

 

Jakob Sanderson, Thinking About Thinking

You made Trey McBride the second TE off the board at 3.02. Are you generally looking to secure an elite TE in dynasty startups? 

Yes, especially so in a 1-QB format where TE becomes the position with the steepest value-over-replacement curve. In 1-QB dynasty (relative to superflex), QB becomes substantially devalued, WR becomes the ‘default’ position (there are several options, but you also need the most of them), and TE is the scarcity position with a steep drop off that’s hard to emulate after the first few options off the board.

I wanted to secure a legitimate edge at TE, while building out WR depth and addressing RB with some veterans who are likely to outproduce their cost at least in Year 1.

You were the last team to take a QB, grabbing Brock Purdy at 12.11. You were also the only team to take 4 QBs. Talk a little about the thought process there.

In single-QB, I either want to be the team grabbing the truly elite QB or waiting it out. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts have proven themselves to separate enough from the pack that they’re worth investing in. Once they were gone, I didn’t want to pay the premium, especially knowing I could push QB way down the board since most drafters wouldn’t be looking to prioritize a QB2. 

I locked in Purdy, who I see as a high-floor option to be a fringe QB1, and then took shots at cheaper upside bets to surpass that with McCarthy, Watson, and Fields. Should Watson regain his form and stay healthy, or Fields take over for Russ at some point, I should project in the mid-QB1 range at a negligible cost.

 

Kevin English, Draft Sharks

You used third- and fourth-round picks on Patrick Mahomes and Mark Andrews. Are you generally looking to secure elites at the ‘onesie’ positions in dynasty startup drafts?

It depends on how the board shakes out and where tiers drop off. 

Looking back, it was either Mahomes or Michael Pittman in the third. I opted for a long-term QB1 over a would-be WR3 in Pittman. Davante Adams later joined the squad as my WR3 in Round 5.

Andrews slots in third in our dynasty TE rankings. The value was right here, with the Raven arriving as the TE6.

Eight of your 20 picks were spent on rookies. Talk about how you value rookies vs. vets in startup drafts.

I'm OK exiting a startup draft counting on several veteran pieces. I did that with Andrews, Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Josh Jacobs.

To counterbalance mid- and late-career players, I’ll look to grab first- or second-year guys with the potential to eventually replace the vets.

Some of my favorites in this draft: Ja'Lynn Polk (for his polished skill set and opportunity) and Tyrone Tracy (for his pass-catching ability and opportunity).

 

Theo Gremminger, PlayerProfiler

Six RBs went in the first two rounds of this draft. You took two of them: Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. Are you generally seeing value in elite RBs in dynasty startups right now?

I usually start my single-QB dynasty startups with a WR in the first round for long-term stability at the position.

Bijan Robinson is the exception. He is 22 years old, has potential to be this year’s RB1 overall, and should maintain this potential for a few seasons. The one knock on Robinson last season was his receiving upside, and he finished with the eighth-most targets all time for a rookie in a single season.

Rankings wise, I have him ahead of any WR in this range. 

As for Taylor, it was a value-based decision and the opportunity to have the strongest set of RBs in this league. The WR steam was real with this set of drafters and it made sense to draft Taylor instead of pushing up a WR because of a positional run.

Starting RB-RB can be risky, but with Taylor’s role and contract insulation, he is one of the safer options in dynasty. 

You took George Pickens at 3.04 – a round or two ahead of ADP. Talk about why you’re so high on Pickens.

Pickens was an upside bet where I took him. I believe in the profile and role. The only concern is passing volume and targets, but the threat of Arthur Smith to Pickens could be overblown. We have a larger sample size of WR1s excelling in Mike Tomlin-led offenses.

I prefer Pickens to Michael Pittman and D.K. Metcalf (the two WRs selected after him) in dynasty.

 

Matt Schauf, Draft Sharks

You opened your draft with five straight WRs. Is that a strategy you’re specifically looking to deploy in startup drafts?

I am looking to lean on WRs early in dynasty startup drafts. Exactly how many I take will depend on the specific players who reach me and how the rest of the league is drafting. 

There’s a small top shelf at RB right now – guys who combine high immediate ceilings with attractive ages and reliable workloads. Solid-to-good veteran RBs, meanwhile, always slide down a startup board. So I know I can get worthwhile 2024 starters at the position later (here: Derrick Henry in Round 6; James Conner in Round 10) and then fortify with rookies over the next couple of years. 

In this draft specifically, only one other drafter opened with four WR picks. And then Chris Godwin made it to my fifth turn as the WR35. The guy’s heading into just his age-28 season with plenty of proven production behind him.

I’d have been fine subbing in a TE for my Round 4 WR, but I believe Rashee Rice was pushed too far down the board in this particular draft – and probably overall on the market right now – for the off-field stuff. He’s a low-risk bet as my WR4.

There were also only four QBs off the board by my Round 5 turn. So I felt no pressure to address that position ahead of Godwin. I wound up landing Kyler Murray – a key reason I felt comfy waiting – in the middle of Round 8. But I’d have also been fine leading that position with Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, or Dak Prescott even later.

Your top two RBs, Derrick Henry and James Conner, are 30 and 29 years old, respectively. How do you think about age when drafting RBs in dynasty startups?

I know heading in that productive older RBs will go later than they probably should. RB overall is not a position where we should bet on long-term contributions. So I’m less interested in reaching for someone such as Rachaad White or even Travis Etienne just because he’s young. 

Etienne’s obviously a better bet to produce for longer from this point than Henry or Conner. But is he four rounds more valuable than Henry? Eight more than Conner? Is Etienne going to stay good for fantasy beyond his 2025 fifth-year option season? I’d rather wait and bet on safer positions.

Finally, on the older guys: I didn’t draft "a 30-year-old RB" and "a 29-year-old RB." I drafted Henry and Conner specifically. Both remained highly effective players in 2023. Henry’s situation then improved, and he’s been a physical outlier throughout his playing career. Conner has been perennially underrated in Arizona and should find himself in a better offense this year.

Beyond 2024? I don't need to have that figured out at RB right now.

 

Alex Korff, Draft Sharks

You drafted the oldest team in the league, with an average age of 27.4 years. Talk about how age factors into your strategy in dynasty startups.

What can I say? I like ‘em old. (Winks.) 

This team looks older on paper than it is when you dig in. If you look at my starters, they are all very young but established. Besides Keenan Allen, I anticipate all these guys to still be at the top of their positions for the next three years. 

My team does look old because I acquired bench value from many older players who were dropping. But that also means I likely have easy drops next year for those incoming rookies. That tends to be my strategy in startups. Start young in the first ~9 rounds and then grab rental guys that can be dropped for room the following year.

What are your expectations for Michael Penix, your QB2, in 2024 and beyond?

Shrug emoji.

If Lamar gets hurt, I don’t love my chances for 2024. Penix was a future play.

In hindsight, I wished I had not picked him and grabbed Stafford in the 19th ahead of Kevin. I love that pick for depth. But not for the future. I guess it is a balance. Penix has a very uncertain future but seemed fine in the 16th round. I prefer his upside to the garbage that was drafted around him.

 

Jeff Bell, Footballguys

The elephant in the room: You took TEs in both the second and third rounds. Is “Bully TE” a strategy you like to deploy in startup drafts? Or was this just a case of LaPorta and Kincaid being the best available players on your board?

We’ll go ahead and call this an accidental bully. 

In Round 2, I was sniped hard, seeing Drake London and Rome Odunze go off the board right before my pick. That cleared the young WRs I wanted to target to start my draft and left me choosing between leaving the production window to pair with Marvin Harrison Jr. or breaking the seal on the TE position. I was OK with any one of Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid. But with 12 picks before I hit the clock in Round 3, I wanted to avoid getting closed out. 

I avoided getting closed out, with Kincaid standing as the best player available when I swung back in Round 3. The lack of premium scoring on the position makes this build less than ideal, but both LaPorta and Kincaid will perform at the top of their position for their careers. 

No one will accuse my team of being good in Year 1, but TE and QB are locked in the long term on this build, and a productive struggle will augment production at other positions.

You took just one RB in the first 10 rounds … and then seven over the final 10 rounds. Is this how you typically build your RB rooms in dynasty startups?

A Zero-RB or Hero-RB approach is very standard for my drafts. One look down dynasty RB rankings has Kyren Williams and Zamir White flirting with top 20 value and Zack Moss rising from the dynasty dead. 

I feel OK with Jerome Ford as my Week 1 RB2, and I just need one of Jaylen Wright, Blake Watson, Dylan Laube, or Will Shipley to hit fantasy utility to feel comfortable heading into the offseason. 

In rookie drafts, I prefer targeting WRs early and continuing to backfill RB with later picks. Hammering youth at WR and a productive struggle in Year 1 is a strategy with rookie drafts that has continually paid dividends for me in Year 2 and beyond.

 

Alan Seslowsky, Rotowire

You opted for Jahmyr Gibbs over a WR at 1.08. Talk about why you think Gibbs is the pick there.

Drafting a RB in Round 1 is an uncomfortable pick. The young WRs that are alternative options project to have a longer, more liquid dynasty life than the RBs. 

But there are three RBs (Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs) who I view similarly to the WRs available. At age 22, owning first-round NFL draft pedigree and elite pass-catching upside, Gibbs solves your RB position. He should be a high-end asset for a few years, and is the type of rare RB who can secure a second contract giving him some longevity. 

When you take a Round 1 RB, you’re committing to “older” WRs later in the draft to fill out your WR2 and WR3 spots.

You took Jermaine Burton a few rounds ahead of ADP. What has you so excited about this rookie?

Reaching for rookies that the dynasty market likes is a strategy I have recently experimented with. 

I don’t have a strong feeling one way or another about Burton, but he is a popular “upside” pick. Rookies were flying off the board in our draft, so I was adjusting to the appetite of the room. 

If Burton does earn the No. 3 WR spot for the Bengals and shows anything in the first month of the season, he’ll be a desirable asset that allows me to “tier up” or possibly liquidate for a first-round rookie pick next season. If Burton doesn't earn snaps early on, I might be sitting on a flat-tire pick. 

The opportunity cost of taking Burton was not that prohibitive in my judgment. I passed on a flat tier of RBs like Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, and James Conner. Those types of players are unlikely to allow me to cash out for a 2025 first-round rookie pick, even if they are productive.

 

Anthony Amico, Establish The Run

You drafted the youngest team in the league, with an average age of 23.6 years. Talk about how age factors into your strategy in dynasty startups.

The startup draft is going to be your best opportunity to acquire young talent. In my experience, once the league starts, the sub-25 year-old group becomes very expensive in the trade market.

Especially in the early rounds, I want young cornerstones. Later on if I see some Year 1 value slipping, I’m happy to scoop that up.

Andrei Iosivas was an interesting late-round pick. What are your expectations for him in 2024 and beyond?

Iosivas is a fun flier in dynasty since he seems forgotten after the Bengals selected Jermaine Burton in the draft.

Tyler Boyd’s departure opens up some immediate opportunity, and Iosivas played well with his chances last year.

Tee Higgins is all but gone in 2025. So even if Burton ends up hitting, there are plenty of open targets behind Ja’Marr Chase.

 

Jared Smola, Draft Sharks

You traded down a couple of spots in Round 1, from 1.10 to 1.12. What was thought process there?

Dynasty rankings are nice, but dynasty tiers are where it’s at. This trade was a case of staying within a tier, while picking up a little extra draft capital.

When I got on the clock at 1.10, Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, A.J. Brown, and Christian McCaffrey were the top players on my board. But they’re all in the same tier for me. So I sent trade offers to the teams picking behind me to see if I could trade down a spot or two. Shane was willing to make the move.

I gave:

• 1.10
• 2.03
• 4.03

I received:

• 1.12
• 2.01
• 4.01

That allowed me to lock up two players in that tier of five – while also moving up a couple of spots in the fourth round.

You were the only team to take three RBs inside the first six rounds. Talk about how that played out.

This was a case of taking what the draft gave me. I generally prefer to go more WR-heavy in dynasty startup drafts – but this was a WR-crazed draft.

That left Christian McCaffrey at 2.01, De’Von Achane at 4.01, and Kyren Williams at 6.03 as the best available players at those respective picks.

Achane (31st overall) and Williams (34th), in particular, sit significantly higher in our dynasty rankings. In fact, had I known those two would have been available at those spots, I'd have taken Tyreek Hill over McCaffrey at 2.01.

I like to think about dynasty startups as accumulating assets rather than assembling a fantasy team. If I can acquire more value than the rest of the league in the startup, I can use that excess value to fill specific roster holes down the road.

 

Matt Price, Dynasty League Football

You were the last team to take a RB, waiting until 9.11 to snag Brian Robinson. Is that a strategy you typically like to deploy in dynasty startup drafts?

Yeah, especially this season where I view Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De’Von Achane as the only four backs I’m willing to draft in the first 2-3 rounds. In general I don’t like to take what, in my view, are declining assets in the first 5-7 rounds unless there is significant value.

You took two Chargers RBs in Rounds 13 and 14 and a pair of Cowboys RBs in Rounds 15 and 16. Was that by design or just how the board fell?

A little bit of both. In general, I like to target ambiguous backfields. In those specific cases, the board just kind of fell that way.

With Chargers backs, I really like Kimani Vidal but recognize that Gus Edwards (or J.K. Dobbins or Isaiah Spiller) might get the first crack.

For the Cowboys backs, I do think one or both of those guys will be relevant because of how good the passing offense should be and the TD equity for the backs close to the goal line. I’m not particularly high on either guy, but at cost I think they can combine for solid RB2/flex production.

 

Shane Hallam, Draft Sharks

You made a two-pick trade-up in Round 1 to secure Puka Nacua at 10th overall. Talk about your outlook for Nacua and what factors you consider when deciding to make a trade-up

Deciding to move up in a startup is twofold for me:

1. Am I likely to miss out on a higher tier if I stand pat?
2. Is the price worthwhile?

For me, Nacua was the end of a second tier of WRs with the rookies (Marvin Harrison and Malik Nabers). Moving up two picks in the first to ensure I could nab him at the cost of two slight bump downs later was worth it, as those didn’t remove me from tier breaks.

Nacua’s rookie season puts him in historic company, hitting over 100 receptions and 1,400 yards. That type of production at 22 years old makes it unlikely Nacua ends up a bust. He’ll be tied to the great Sean McVay offense and still has room to improve in terms of his route running and football IQ.

With a good floor and an even higher ceiling, I am all in.

You made Jonathon Brooks the ninth RB off the board. What has you so excited about this rookie?

Brooks was a riskier pick than a few of the RBs who went after him (Kyren Williams, James Cook, etc.), but I love the upside Brooks brings to the table. His 10 games as a college starter is a small sample, but he was absolutely electrifying as a runner. With the Panthers upgrading their offensive line, Brooks has a long-term outlook as a potential top fantasy RB for years to come.

Seeing HC Dave Canales utilize Rachaad White as both a runner and receiver has me excited for the more talented Brooks. Once 100% healthy, Brooks should become a three-down RB. 

Rookies also hold their dynasty value better than older prospects. It's doubtful that Brooks goes Round 6 or later next season, even if his 2024 season is slightly disappointing. I’ll take the stable value of a young RB and go from there.

 

Do Your Own Dynasty Startup Mock Draft

There's no better way to get ready for your dynasty startup draft than by practicing. And there's no better way to practice than with the Mock Draft Trainer.

Hone your skills and craft your strategy by mock drafting against our unique computer algorithm using your exact league rules.

It takes just a few minutes to complete a mock draft, so you have more time to test different strategies.

And you’ll get instant feedback on how your team stacks up, according to both Draft Sharks projections and industry-consensus projections.

Get to work with the Draft Sharks Mock Draft Trainer.

       

More Dynasty Strategy