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2024's Best and Worst Offenses, According to Vegas

The Lions are here to stay as an elite offense.

The Bills will be just fine without Stefon Diggs.

The Falcons are primed to score a lot more points this season.

Those are a few key fantasy football takeaways from 2024 Vegas implied point totals.

Which Offenses Will Be The Best And Worst in 2024?

With point spreads and over/unders for all 544 regular-season games, we can deduce how many points the oddsmakers are projecting each team to score each week.

The table below shows the average implied points per game for every team this season, ranked from most to least.

Fantasy Football Takeaways

• The Lions are no fluke. They finished fifth in points last year and are projected to rank even higher in 2024. They’ll certainly benefit from continuity, returning last year’s
  • QB
  • offensive coordinator
  • and top four weapons: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery.
• The oddsmakers aren’t worried about the Bills, despite the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis removing 45% of last year’s receiving-yardage production. That’s the power of an elite QB such as Josh Allen. There’s likely value to be found in Buffalo’s WR corps.
  • We highlighted our favorite Bills WR target in 2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
• Is the Texans offense overvalued? They check in just 10th in 2024 implied points – a little low for a team with five players going among the first five rounds of fantasy drafts.
• On the flip side, the Cowboys offense might be undervalued. They rank fifth in implied points but have just one player in the first seven rounds of current ADP. QB Dak Prescott, TE Jake Ferguson, WR Brandin Cooks, and one or more of Dallas’ RBs could return a profit this year.
• In 16 seasons as a HC, Sean Payton’s offense has never ranked lower than 19th in points. It’s surprising, then, to see the Broncos sitting 31st in implied points.

Which Offenses Will Improve (Or Regress) This Season?

The answer to this question can really help us find undervalued players in fantasy drafts – and avoid overvalued players.

The table below shows each team’s difference between 2024 implied points per game and 2023 actual points per game.

Fantasy Football Takeaways

• The Panthers and Patriots pop near the top of this list – but that’s mostly because they averaged an absurdly low 13.9 points per game last year. They’re still projected for the fewest and third-fewest points per game in 2024.
• The more noteworthy projected risers are the Jets and Falcons, who are both set to get significant QB upgrades. Both teams’ top RB and No. 1 WR are pricey. But there could be value in secondary options such as Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney.
• The oddsmakers are also betting on a bounce back from the Bengals. That should quell concerns about QB Joe Burrow’s return from last year’s right wrist injury. Burrow and Tee Higgins are solid values in fantasy drafts. Ja’Marr Chase is well worth a top-five pick.
• Many of last year’s top-scoring offenses are projected to regress a bit in 2024. Nothing to worry about there.
• The most notable projected faller is the Saints. They quietly ranked ninth in points last year but are projected to plummet to 25th in 2024. There are major offensive line concerns in New Orleans. They check in dead last in our 2024 offensive line rankings.

Jared Smola, Lead Analyst

Jared has been with Draft Sharks since 2007. He’s now Lead Analyst, heading up the preseason and weekly projections that fuel your Draft War Room and My Team tools. He currently ranks 1st among 133 analysts in draft rankings accuracy.