What if Derrick Henry just never declines?

It's easy to be wary of Titans RB Derrick Henry in fantasy football. The 29-year-old exceeded 300 carries three of the past four years. The player aging curves that guide our dynasty projections say RBs see a bigger production drop-off at this age than any other position -- even among elite types. It would be quite abnormal for Henry to continue producing strong numbers. But Henry has always been abnormal, even among high-end NFL rushers. More importantly, he didn't show signs of decline last year. Henry actually improved his yards after contact per attempt, elusive rating, and Pro Football Focus rushing grade vs. his 2021 numbers. His rushing yards over expected rebounded from 0.05 per attempt in 2021 to 0.45 last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, despite a weak Tennessee offense and average O-line. Henry also did all of this despite seeing 8+ defenders in the box at the league's second-highest rate among RBs. The Titans drafted RB Tyjae Spears in Round 3 and might push some work his way. But we expect Henry to remain the workhorse in a run-favoring offense with an aging QB and mostly questionable pass catchers. Best of all, Henry's early ADP (late in Round 2, often into Round 3 in best ball drafts) lowers the risk to betting on him in fantasy. See how Henry's spot in our fantasy football rankings compares.