Travis Kelce - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Turning 35 in October, Kelce is clearly on the decline. But even a declining Kelce led all TEs in PPR points per game last season – and then went on a dominant four-game playoff run.

He’ll face stiffer target competition this year than last after Kansas City added WRs Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

But it’s all baked into Kelce’s depressed ADP. He’s an awesome value in Round 4 of fantasy drafts and is still worth considering if he climbs into Round 3.

What We Learned Last Year

• Kelce’s 14.8 PPR points per game last year were his fewest since 2016.
• He still led all TEs in PPR points per game – 0.1 ahead of T.J. Hockenson and 1.0 ahead of any other TE.
• Kelce missed Week 1 after suffering a hyperextended knee and bone bruise two days before the game. He also sat out a meaningless regular-season finale.
• Kelce still ranked top four among TEs in targets (121), catches (93), and yards (984).
• He underachieved in the TD department, scoring just five times – tied for his fewest since 2016.
  • Kelce’s 5.4% TD rate lagged well behind his career 8.5% rate heading into the season.
  • Kelce ranked second among TEs with 25 red-zone targets and fifth with seven end-zone targets.
  • His 7.0 expected receiving TDs tied Jake Ferguson for most among TEs.
• Kelce tied Hockenson for most expected PPR points per game among TEs (14.6).
• Kelce drew 21.4% of Chiefs targets in his 15 games – fourth among TEs.
• His target shares in the previous four seasons:
  • 2022 - 23.3%
  • 2021 - 20.8%
  • 2020 - 24.2%
  • 2019 - 23.6%
• Kelce’s 10.6 yards per catch last year was easily a career low. His previous low was 12.2.
• His 6.9-yard average target depth tied for his lowest since 2015.
• Kelce’s 1.92 yards per route run last year was the third-lowest mark of his career but still ranked fourth among 45 qualifying TEs.
• His 83.6 Pro Football Focus receiving grade was the second worst of his career but ranked second among those 45 qualifying TEs.
• Kelce was dominant in Kansas City’s four playoff games, posting the following receiving lines:
  • 7-71-0
  • 5-75-2
  • 11-116-1
  • 9-93-0
• He totaled 37 targets on a 24.8% target share across those four playoff games.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Chiefs and Kelce agreed to a two-year, $34.25 million contract extension in April. It made Kelce the league's highest-paid TE and keeps him with Kansas City through the 2027 season.
• Kelce turns 35 in October.
  • Our aging-curve research shows that elite TEs produce 73% of their career peak at age-35.
  • 73% of Kelce’s peak would be 15.2 PPR points per game, which would have led all TEs last year.
• Kelce returns to the same Andy Reid- and Patrick Mahomes-led offense.
• The Chiefs upgraded the WR corps this offseason with the additions of free-agent Marquise Brown and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy.
• WR Rashee Rice is coming off a strong rookie season but is likely facing a multi-game suspension to open the season following a street-racing crash in Dallas in late March.
• Kelce will face stiffer target competiton this season than last, but we don’t expect his target share to take a significant hit. He’s a trusted target for Mahomes, especially in the short passing game. Brown and Worthy are more downfield receivers.