Trey Benson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Benson was an early third-round pick and the second RB off the board in this spring’s draft after an efficient two seasons as Florida State’s lead back. He lands in what was a productive Cardinals running game last year and with an offense that could take a leap in 2024 with a healthy QB Kyler Murray and the addition of rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Benson’s problem is that RB James Conner remained excellent last year, ranking near the top of the league in most rushing efficiency metrics. If Conner rolls that play over to 2024, Benson will be stuck as the No. 2 RB.

But Conner turned 29 in May and has never played a full NFL season. That at least makes Benson one of the best handcuffs in fantasy football.

What We Learned Last Year

• Benson’s college career started with a multi-ligament knee injury as a freshman at Oregon in 2020. He missed that season and carried just six times in 2021.
• Benson transferred to Florida State ahead of the 2022 campaign and turned in two highly efficient seasons for the Seminoles.
  • He led the team in carries, rushing yards, and rushing TDs in both years, posting 154-990-9 and 156-906-14 lines.
  • Benson averaged 6.1 yards per carry across the past two seasons.
  • 11.9% of his carries went for 15+ yards.
  • He scored on 7.4% of his rushing attempts.
  • Benson ranked 11th among 168 qualifying RBs in Pro Football Focus’ 2022 rushing grades and 45th out of 157 last year.
  • He totaled 33 catches over the last two years and averaged 11.2 yards per catch.
• If there’s a knock against Benson, it’s that he was not a high-volume runner.
  • He averaged 12.2 carries per game.
  • He topped 15 carries seven times but also finished with single-digit carries in nine games.
• Benson boosted his stock at the Combine.
  • He checked in at 6’0 and 216 pounds.
  • He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash for a 97th-percentile Speed Score.
  • Benson posted a 37th-percentile vertical but a 74th-percentile broad jump.
  • He earned a 9.76 Relative Athletic Score.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Cardinals selected Benson with the 66th overall pick of this spring’s draft. He was the second RB off the board, 20 picks behind Jonathon Brooks.
• James Conner remained excellent as Arizona’s lead back last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
  • 6th in yards per carry
  • 4th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 12th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 2nd in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 5th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• Conner turned 29 in May and has missed 24 total games over seven NFL seasons. Our Injury Predictor gives Conner an 88.4% chance of injury and 2.8 projected games missed this season. Those are the fifth- and 12th-highest marks among RBs
• Benson’s only competition beyond Conner comes from RBs Michael Carter, DeeJay Dallas, and Emari Demercado.
• OC Drew Petzing returns for his second season with the Cardinals. The run game was productive under Petzing last year, ranking fourth in rushing yards and ninth in rushing TDs. Some of that came from QB Kyler Murray, but Cardinals RBs combined for the 12th most rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry.
• The 2023 Cardinals ranked:
  • 26th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 16th in adjusted line yards
  • 6th in ESPN’s run-block win rate
• OT Paris Johnson, C Hjalte Froholdt, and G Will Hernandez return as projected starters. Johnson played RT last year but is expected to move to LT this season. He ranked 55th among 70 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades but is a candidate to take a step forward this year after going sixth overall in last year’s draft.
• The Cardinals signed OT Jonah Williams to a two-year, $30 million deal. He ranked 57th in PFF pass-blocking grades last season.
• Free-agent signee Evan Brown is expected to start at the other guard spot. He’s been an average run blocker throughout his career.
• Arizona’s offense could be significantly better this year with a healthy QB Kyler Murray and the addition of rookie WR Marvin Harrison.