Michael Wilson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Wilson flashed as a deep threat last year, averaging 14.9 yards per catch and 9.7 yards per target. He was a below-average target earner, though, and ranked just 64th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Earning targets won’t be any easier this year after the Cardinals added WR Marvin Harrison Jr. But if Wilson can fend off Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, and Chris Moore for the No. 2 WR job, he could provide some depth value to fantasy squads.

What We Learned Last Year

• Wilson posted a 38-565-3 line in 13 games as a rookie last year.
• He ranked 64th among WRs in PPR points per game.
• Wilson dealt with neck and shoulder injuries during the second half of the season. He missed four games and finished two others without a catch.
  • Wilson averaged 3.1 catches, 50.1 yards, and 0.3 TDs per game prior to those injuries vs. 2.6 catches, 32.8 yards, and 0.2 TDs per game after.
• Wilson’s 14.1-yard average target depth led Cardinals WRs and ranked 13th among 80 WRs league-wide with 50+ targets.
• His 14.9 yards per catch ranked 22nd among those 80 WRs.
• Wilson impressively caught 65.5% of his targets, despite the high average target depth.
• His 9.7 yards per target ranked 13th among 80 qualifying WRs.
• Wilson was less impressive on a per-route basis, finishing 55th in yards per route.
• He drew a target on just 14% of his routes, which ranked 76th among 119 qualifying WRs.
• Wilson was a Round 3 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He spent 5 years at Stanford and never reached 700 receiving yards in a season. He posted a 56-672-5 line as a sophomore but then missed 16 games with various injuries over the next 3 years.

What to Expect in 2024

• Marquise Brown, who led Cardinals WRs in targets, catches, yards, and TDs last year, left for Kansas City in free agency.
• But Arizona added WR Marvin Harrison with the fourth overall pick of this spring’s draft. He figures to command at least as many targets as Brown, and likely more.
• TE Trey McBride will also play a big role in the passing game after a breakout 2023 season that saw him tally 825 yards and rank second among 33 qualifying TEs in yards per route run.
• Snaps and targets are up for grabs behind those two guys, though. Wilson’s primary competition will come from WRs Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, and Chris Moore.
  • Jones signed a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Cardinals in mid-May after being released by the Jaguars. He’s coming off an injury-riddled and inefficient 2023 season but caught 82 balls in 2022.
  • Dortch racked up 52 receptions in 2022 but sunk to 24 last year. He caught just one ball across Arizona’s first 10 games last year before injuries to Wilson and WR Marquise Brown opened up a bigger role over the final seven games.
  • Moore signed a one-year, $2 million deal with Arizona in mid-March. The 31-year-old’s 548 and 424 receiving yards the last two seasons are the two largest totals of his career.
• OC Drew Petzing returns for his second season with the Cardinals.
• Last year’s Cardinals ranked:
  • 22nd in pass rate
  • 24th in pass attempts
  • 26th in pass yards
  • 24th in pass TDs
• Arizona averaged 163 passing yards and 0.9 TDs over the first nine games of the season with QB Jacoby Brissett. That increased to 210 yards and 1.3 TDs with QB Kyler Murray over the final eight games.