Travis Etienne - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Etienne was the focal point of the Jaguars offense last season and had the best year of his career. Not only was he extremely efficient rushing the ball, but he finally showed his receiving potential.

Etienne has been the model of health and consistency since his rookie year. His role shouldn’t change much in 2024.

Expect RB1 numbers again this season with upside to be a top-five performer.

What We Learned Last Year

• Etienne’s 1,008 rushing yards ranked 11th among RBs. His 58 catches ranked sixth at the position.
• He missed no games due to injury. He has not missed a game since 2021.
• Etienne ranked as the PPR RB3 in total fantasy points and RB7 in points per game.
  • He finished RB12 or better six times. He recorded four games between RB13 and RB24.
• He ranked 40th among all ball carriers in rushing success rate at 43.1%.
• He played 73% of the Jaguars offensive snaps last season.
• His per-game averages:
  • 15.7 carries
  • 59.3 rushing yards
  • 0.65 rushing TDs
  • 4.29 targets
  • 3.41 catches
  • 28.0 receiving yards
  • 0.06 receiving TDs
• Etienne was a fairly effective runner in 2023. Among 51 RBs with 90+ carries last year, he ranked:
  • 9th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade (78.4)
  • 10th in PFF’s Elusive Rating (77.7)
  • 38th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
• He was also solid in receiving metrics. Among 59 RBs with 20+ targets, Etienne ranked
  • 15th in PFF receiving grade
  • 23rd in yards per route run

What to Expect in 2024

• Etienne enters his third season with the Jaguars under HC Doug Pederson and OC Press Taylor.
• Jacksonville only added fifth-round rookie Keilan Robinson to the backfield. Tank Bigsby returns after an ugly rookie season.
• The Jaguars are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 17th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +5000 on most sportsbooks, second-highest in the division.
• Etienne enters his fourth season at 25 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average RB with Etienne’s career and profile will produce at 97% of his peak value at age-25.