Darnell Mooney - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mooney’s $26 million dollar guaranteed contract shows how much he is valued by the Falcons’ new coaching staff.

Despite this, his usage as a deep threat makes him unreliable for consistent fantasy production as the likely fourth option behind Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Mooney remains an end-of-the-roster flier who could have spike weeks when the game plan and matchup align for him to make a few big plays.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mooney had the worst production of his NFL career last season. His per-game averages were:
  • 4.07 targets
  • 2.07 receptions
  • 27.6 yards
  • 13.4 yards per catch
  • 0.07 TDs per game
• He saw his production increase with Tyson Bagent throwing the football while Justin Fields was injured. Mooney’s per-game stats with Bagent:
  • 4.4 targets
  • 2.8 receptions
  • 43.4 yards
  • 15.5 yards per catch
  • 0 TDs
• Mooney ranked as the PPR WR83 in total fantasy points (78.9) and WR86 in points per game (3.0).
• He missed the final two games of the season due to concussion-like symptoms.
• He had no top-12 finishes, and twelve WR37 or worse finishes.
• Mooney’s 15.1% target share was 66th in the league.
• His 11.3-yard average target depth was the lowest of his career.
• Two factors affected these numbers:
  • Mooney played the highest slot percentage of his career at 65.4% compared to a 39.5% average in his first three years.
  • He dropped numerous passes in key moments. Among 93 WRs with 40+ targets, Mooney had the fourth-highest drop rate.
• Among that same WR group, Mooney ranked 80th in PFF receiving grade, the worst of his career.
• He also ranked 24th in average separation yards (3.1), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Mooney signed a three-year, $39 million contract with the Falcons this offseason with $26 million guaranteed. His $13 million per year is tied for 25th among WRs.
• He will play under HC Raheem Morris and first-time OC and play-caller Zac Robinson.
  • Robinson has been on the Rams’ staff since 2019 under Sean McVay, working as the QB coach and pass game coordinator since 2022.
  • Under Robinson, the Rams averaged 628 passes per season.
• Joining an offense led by Kirk Cousins will provide a significant QB upgrade for Mooney.
  • Last season Cousins had a superior 85.1 PFF passing grade compared to Justin Fields (67.2)
• The Falcons are expected to be pretty good. They lead the NFC South with a 9.5 win total at most sportsbooks.
• This expectation of success is largely due to Cousins joining the team. The Falcons’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +4000 before Cousins to +2800 after he signed.
• Mooney enters his 5th season at 26 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Mooney’s career produces 92% of his peak value at age-26.