Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

The QB question and recency bias have pushed Jefferson from the clear No. 1 WR in 2023 ADP to fourth or fifth at the position this year. Given that he scored as the WR2 and WR1 in PPR points per game across healthy outings the past two years, the upside is obvious. You should chase that more than you should worry about the QB.

What We Learned Last Year

• Every QB knows to get the ball to Jefferson. The WR set a career high for target share across his eight healthy games, despite Minnesota starting four different QBs and Jefferson losing seven midseason games and parts of two others to a hamstring injury.
• Jefferson also set career highs with 2.91 yards per route and a 91.2 Pro Football Focus receiving grade, despite getting just four of those eight healthy games with Kirk Cousins.
• Even his PPR scoring average slipped just 1.2 points per game vs. 2022 – including the game Jefferson left early and the limited action he saw in his first game back.
  • Throw out those two, and his 24.1 PPR points per game would have topped his 2022 rate by 2.6 points. It also would have beaten CeeDee Lamb for tops at the position.
• Minnesota erased the only potential question from Jefferson’s profile by giving him a large contract extension in the spring.

What to Expect in 2024

• No one needs to make a case for Jefferson the player. The only question here is the QB play.
• It’ll be Sam Darnold, after J.J. McCarthy's season-ending knee injury.
• That’s probably not a confidence-inspiring pair, especially with Darnold looking like the better early bet to open the season behind center. But the Vikings clearly view Darnold as an upgrade over Dobbs-Mullens-Hall. If they didn’t, they would have stuck with last year’s group.
• Minnesota also didn’t make any meaningful additions at WR or TE, despite T.J. Hockenson looking uncertain to start the year after a double-ligament knee injury in Week 16 of last season.
  • Robert Tonyan arrived on a minimum contract as the “biggest” TE addition.
  • Trent Sherfield was the biggest name added at WR.
• The Vikings did sign RB Aaron Jones almost immediately after the Packers released him. It’s hard to see that impacting Jefferson’s usage, though.
  • At his best, Jones hasn’t been a high-volume runner. So his arrival shouldn’t signal a significant shift in run-pass split.
  • At worst, he’s better than Alexander Mattison. So Jones’ addition should help the offense.
• Over HC Kevin O’Connell’s two seasons, the Vikings have ranked seventh in neutral-situation pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.
  • Even after Cousins went down last year, Minnesota still ranked 11th from Week 9 on – a stretch that included four missed games and a limited outing for Jefferson.