Gus Edwards - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Edwards is coming off the most productive season of his NFL career. But he also posted personal worsts in most efficiency metrics. He turned 29 in April and is certainly at risk for further decline this year.

The good news is that Edwards joins a Chargers squad with a run-loving coaching staff and wide-open backfield. He’ll battle J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal for snaps and touches.

We’d consider Edwards the favorite to open the season as the lead back, although he’s not a great bet to hold on to that title for the entire year.

What We Learned Last Year

• Edwards set career highs last year with:
  • 198 carries
  • 810 rushing yards
  • 13 rushing TDs
• But he set career lows with:
  • 4.1 yards per carry
  • 2.71 yards after contact per carry
  • 74.6 Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Edwards ranked:
  • 24th in yards per carry
  • 36th in yards after contact per carry
  • 30th in PFF rushing grade
• He fared much better in success rate, which measures whether a run was successful based on down and distance. Edwards ranked eighth among 49 qualifiers in that metric.
• He was excellent near the goal line, converting 12 of 19 carries inside the five-yard line into TDs.
• Edwards set a career high in catches last year … with 12. He’s never been a factor in the passing game, totaling just 30 catches across five NFL seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

• Edwards hit free agency this offseason and inked a two-year, $6.5 million deal with the Chargers. His $3.25 million average annual salary ranks 24th among RBs.
• Edwards joins a new-look Chargers backfield alongside fellow 2024 additions J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal.
  • Dobbins sports a career 5.8 yards-per-carry average but has been limited to just nine games over the last three seasons. He’s currently working back from a torn Achilles suffered last September. Dobbins signed a one-year, $1.6 million deal with the Chargers with only $50K guaranteed.
  • Los Angeles added Vidal in Round 6 of this spring’s draft. He led Troy in rushing in all four of his seasons on campus, including 2,793 rushing yards over the last two years. Vidal also totaled 92 career catches. The 213-pounder earned an 8.88 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
• The Chargers have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. Both guys have long histories of run-heavy offenses. That includes four seasons spent together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in rush attempts and rush rate:
  • 2011 - 3rd, 3rd
  • 2012 - 7th, 3rd
  • 2013 - 3rd, 2nd
  • 2014 - 9th, 6th
• It’s worth noting that dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick started half of the 2012 season and all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That certainly skewed the 49ers toward the run.
• Those 49ers RB rooms were not nearly as productive as you’d think. Here’s where those teams ranked in total RB PPR points:
  • 2011 - 20th
  • 2012 - 18th
  • 2013 - 18th
  • 2014 - 29th
• That was largely because the RBs didn’t do much in the passing game. Here’s where the 49ers’ RBs ranked in total receptions:
  • 2011 - 30th
  • 2012 - 25th
  • 2013 - 29th
  • 2014 - 31st
• That’s less of a concern for Edwards, who wouldn’t have projected to do much in the passing game anyway.
• The 2023 Chargers ranked:
  • 32nd in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
  • 30th in adjusted line yards
• The team spent the fifth overall pick of this year’s draft on OT Joe Alt. He ranked second among 278 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades.
• L.A. also signed free-agent Bradley Bozeman, who projects to start at C. He ranked 17th among 32 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grades last year.
• Edwards turned 29 in April. That’s danger zone for RBs, with our aging-curve data saying to expect just 70-75% of peak production from Edwards this season.