Zay Flowers - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Flowers finished 32nd among WRs in PPR points per game as a rookie. He’s going a reasonable 30th at the position in Underdog Fantasy ADP so far this year. And Baltimore has done nothing to challenge the outlook for a second-year WR who got immediately involved after arriving as a first-round pick. Flowers looks like a solid pick across formats.

What We Learned Last Year

• The Ravens got their first-round WR heavily involved quickly. Flowers drew 10 targets in his first game and finished the year 21st among all WRs in target share.
  • That share got no significant padding from Mark Andrews’ injury.
  • From Week 2 through Week 10 (with Andrews), Flowers drew 23% target share.
  • From Week 11 (when Andrews went down) on: 23.5%.
• Baltimore increased its pass rate after switching from OC Greg Roman to Todd Monken. They climbed from 12th in neutral pass rate in 2022 to seventh last year. But they still tied for just 30th in total pass attempts.
  • That put Flowers tied for 26th among WRs in total targets.
  • He also ranked:
    • 22nd in receptions
    • 33rd in receiving yards
    • tied for 28th in TD catches
• The Ravens favored shorter routes for Flowers. His 9.1-yard aDOT for the season tied for 77th among 96 WRs who drew at least 40 targets, according to PFF. Those aDOTs did vary by game, at least, showing the team’s willingness to target Flowers at all levels of the field.
• Flowers’ yards per route ranked 38th among that same group of 96; sixth among rookie WRs behind:
  • Puka Nacua 2.75
  • Tank Dell 2.22
  • Rashee Rice 2.21
  • Jayden Reed 1.95
  • Dontayvion Wicks 1.94

What to Expect in 2024

• Flowers at least looks locked in as the lead WR and could lead the team in targets. TE Mark Andrews drew 23.4% target share over his nine healthy outings last season. Flowers went 23% over the same span.
• The Ravens added no worrisome challengers for targets, with fourth-round rookie WR Devontez Walker looking like the most significant addition.
• His 71.3% catch rate in 2023 was high for the position but ranked just 15th among WRs with 30+ targets. Teammate Nelson Agholor ranked even higher, and QB Lamar Jackson is coming off a career-best adjusted completion rate. So we buy Flowers at least coming close to repeating this rate.
• There’s room for his aDOT to grow. Flowers posted a career 13.0-yard aDOT in college, with no single-season mark shorter than 10.4. And he ranked just sixth among Ravens WRs in aDOT in 2023.
  • The shorter range of his targets in 2023 points to the team trying to get him the ball. But a deeper average target would likely grow his yards per catch and increase big-play potential.
• There’s room for passing volume to grow even with Derrick Henry’s arrival. Baltimore tied for just 30th in the league in pass attempts last season but climbed from 12th to seventh in neutral pass rate. Lamar Jackson finished with a career high in scrambles, according to PFF.