Josh Downs - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Downs settled into the slot role in the Steichen offense last season but was often not utilized enough to be fantasy relevant. Like many slot WRs, he needs volume to be startable and it simply wasn’t there.

With Adonai Mitchell added as a Day 2 draft pick, there are likely to be even fewer targets for Downs this season.

Unless he finds an early connection with Anthony Richardson, Downs is just a depth piece for fantasy squads.

What We Learned Last Year

• Down’s per-game averages as a rookie:
  • 5.76 targets
  • 4.00 receptions
  • 45.4 yards
  • 11.3 yards per catch
  • 0.12 TDs
• His per-game statistics stayed consistent when Gardner Minshew took over for the injured Anthony Richardson:
  • 5.42 targets
  • 3.75 receptions
  • 43.0 yards
  • 11.47 yards per catch
  • 0.17 TDs
• Downs ranked as the PPR WR43 in total fantasy points (157.1) and WR56 in points per game (9.2).
• He did not miss a game due to injury but left early in Week 9 due to a knee injury.
• Downs had one top-12 finish. He also had 14 WR37 or worse finishes.
• 81.3% of his snaps were played from the slot.
• His 18.2% target share ranked 44th in the NFL.
• Among 92 WRs with 40+ targets, Downs ranked 46th in Pro Football Focus receiving grade and yards per route run (1.60).
• Among those same 92 WRs, Downs was 14th in average separation yards (3.3), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

What to Expect in 2024

• Downs enters his second season with the Colts under HC and play-caller Shane Steichen and OC Jim Bob Cooter.
• The Colts are expected to perform similarly to last season. They are tied for the second-highest win total in the AFC South at 8.5 wins on most sportsbooks.
• They sit 20th in terms of highest Super Bowl odds at +6000 on most sportsbooks, third highest in the division.
• Downs enters his second season at 23 years old. According to our aging curve research, the average WR with Downs’ career and profile will produce at 93% of his peak value at age-23.
• The Colts spent a Round 2 pick this spring on WR Adonai Mitchell, although he’s more likely to impact WR Alec Pierce on the outside than Downs’ slot role.