Garrett Wilson's 2024 Projections & Outlook
Scoring
#6 Wide Receiver
255.9 Projected Points
ADP |
Rec |
Rec Yds |
Rec TDs |
100 |
Fum |
Not Available |
94.1 |
1157.4 |
7.31 |
0.1 |
0 |
DS 3D Projections
Bottom Line
Wilson’s tallied 2,145 yards over his first two seasons. Since 1990, only 17 WRs have exceeded that yardage across years one and two.
So Wilson’s enjoyed a strong start – despite lousy QB play. That figures to change in 2024, as long as Aaron Rodgers stays on the field.
Rodgers’ health adds a layer of fragility to Wilson’s fantasy outlook. But the upside here makes the investment worthwhile – provided you can land him near the 1-2 turn or beyond.
What We Learned Last Year
- Wilson lost Aaron Rodgers to a Week 1 Achilles tear. Surprisingly, it didn’t torpedo his season.
- The former Round 1 pick finished as the WR24 in PPR.
- He simply lacked a high-end ceiling, scoring only 3 times while catching balls from Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle.
- Wilson cracked the top 10 in a given week only once (Week 14 vs. Houston).
- Wilson was a true target-earner.
- He saw 168 targets -- 4th most in the league.
- He led the NFL in percentage of his team’s air yards (44.8%)
- Wilson ranked T-5th among 153 qualifers in ESPN's Open Score. Essentially, he excelled as a pure separator.
- Given the awful QB play, Wilson’s efficiency metrics weren’t great.
- He posted just 11 yards per catch, 3.4 yards after catch per reception, and 1.55 yards per route run -- all steps down from his '22 production.
What to Expect in 2024
- Aaron Rodgers is on track to begin the season at 100%
- Clearly, he’s an upgrade from what Wilson played with in 2023.
- Still, in 2022, Rodgers fell below career averages in yards per attempt (6.8), completion rate (64.6%), and yards per game (217).
- Wilson’s volume will remain strong.
- New York added Mike Williams and Round 3 WR Malachi Corley to the WR corps this offseason.
- Williams’ effectiveness is questionable after a Week 3 ACL tear last fall.
- Corley brings a feisty run-after-catch skill set but doesn’t project for a sizable target share.
- The 2023 Jets, despite QB issues, ranked 5th in pass rate; 13th in pass rate over expected. Look for their pass-centric ways to remain following the return of Rodgers and OC Nathaniel Hackett.