Zay Jones - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Jones is coming off an injury-riddled and inefficient 2023 season.

But he finished 26th among WRs in PPR points per game in 2022 and is still only 29.

There’s bounce-back potential here, although Jones’ best-case scenario is likely the No. 3 option in Arizona’s passing game behind WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and TE Trey McBride.

He’s only worth considering near the end of fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Jones missed eight games last year with right knee and left hamstring injuries.
• In his nine games, he averaged:
  • 7.1 targets
  • 3.8 catches
  • 35.7 yards
  • 0.2 TDs
• He ranked 63rd among WRs in PPR points per game.
• Jones registered a 17.6% target share in his nine games – 47th among WRs.
• He was one of the least efficient WRs in the league. Among 80 WRs with 50+ targets, Jones ranked:
  • 75th in catch rate
  • 78th in yards per catch
  • 79th in yards per target
  • 71st in yards per route
• Jones ranked 69th among those 80 WRs in Pro Football Focus receiving grade.
• He was much better in 2022.
  • Jones posted an 82-823-5 receiving line in 16 games.
  • He finished 26th among WRs in PPR points.
  • Jones ranked 51st in PFF receiving grade and 46th in yards per route among 80 qualifying WRs.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Jaguars released Jones and saved $4.18 million against the 2024 salary cap shortly after selecting WR Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the draft.
• Jones inked a one-year, $2.25 million deal with the Cardinals a little less than two weeks later.
• He joins a WR corps that will very likely be led by first-round rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
• TE Trey McBride will also play a big role in the passing game after a breakout 2023 season that saw him tally 825 yards and rank second among 33 qualifying TEs in yards per route run.
• Snaps and targets are up for grabs behind those two guys, though. Jones’ primary competition will come from WRs Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and Chris Moore.
  • Wilson turned in a promising rookie season last year, posting a 38-565-3 line in 13 games. He averaged a strong 9.7 yards per target and ranked 55th among 80 qualifying WRs in yards per route.
  • Dortch racked up 52 receptions in 2022 but sunk to 24 last year. He caught just one ball across Arizona’s first 10 games last year before injuries to Wilson and WR Marquise Brown opened up a bigger role over the final seven games.
  • Moore signed a one-year, $2 million deal with Arizona in mid-March. The 31-year-old’s 548 and 424 receiving yards the last two seasons are the two largest totals of his career.
• OC Drew Petzing returns for his second season with the Cardinals.
• Last year’s Cardinals ranked:
  • 22nd in pass rate
  • 24th in pass attempts
  • 26th in pass yards
  • 24th in pass TDs
• Arizona averaged 163 passing yards and 0.9 TDs over the first nine games of the season with QB Jacoby Brissett. That increased to 210 yards and 1.3 TDs with QB Kyler Murray over the final eight games.
• Murray is healthy for the 2024 season. Expect this passing game to be better.