Patrick Mahomes - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Mahomes is coming off the worst fantasy season of his career, finishing just 10th among QBs in points per game.

He was a top-6 fantasy QB in each of his first five seasons as Chiefs starter and is an easy 2024 bounce-back bet.

Mahomes remains one of the best QBs in the NFL and got weapon upgrades this offseason with the arrivals of WRs Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.

While his upside isn’t as high as dual-threat QBs like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, Mahomes is a good bet for top-5 production this year. And he might come slightly discounted in fantasy drafts.

What We Learned Last Year

• Mahomes is coming off his worst fantasy season since taking over as Kansas City’s starter in 2018.
• He ranked eighth among QBs in total fantasy points and 10th in fantasy points per game.
• That followed these rankings in points per game in the previous five seasons:
  • 2018 - 1st
  • 2019 - 6th
  • 2020 - 3rd
  • 2021 - 4th
  • 2022 - 3rd
• Mahomes’ 261.4 passing yards per game last year were a career low and ranked ninth in the NFL.
  • The biggest culprit was a career-low 7.0 yards per pass attempt.
  • And the biggest culprit for that was a career-low 6.5-yard average target depth, which ranked 30th among 32 qualifiers.
• Mahomes’ 27 passing TDs last year were the second-fewest of his career. His 1.7 TDs per game were the fewest.
  • His 4.5% TD rate was a career low and ranked 15th among 32 qualifiers.
• A final reason for Mahomes’ relatively disappointing 2023 fantasy season: He scored 0 rushing TDs after averaging 2.4 per season over the previous five years.
• Kansas City’s pass-catching corps was a big reason for Mahomes’ struggles. The Chiefs’ team 72.0 Pro Football Focus receiving grade ranked 18th league-wide and was easily the worst mark since Mahomes took over in 2018.
• Mahomes had 29 passes dropped last year – tied for most in the NFL.
• Mahomes deserves at least a bit of the blame, too, though.
  • His 81.1 PFF passing grade was the second-worst mark of his career and ranked 13th among 32 qualifiers.
  • Mahomes’ -1.7% completion rate over expected ranked 35th among 45 qualifiers.

What to Expect in 2024

• Expect a bounce-back season from one of the most talented QBs in NFL history.
• The Chiefs made it a point to upgrade the WR corps this offseason, signing free-agent Marquise Brown to a one-year, $7 million deal and then trading up to select Xavier Worthy with the 28th overall pick of the draft.
• Both guys bring much-needed speed to this passing game. Brown ran a 4.27-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day; Worthy set the Combine record with a 4.21-second 40 time.
• TE Travis Kelce returns for his 12th NFL season. He’s past his prime at 34 years old but remains a trusted target, posting a sterling 76.9% catch rate last year.
• The biggest question in the pass-catching corps is WR Rashee Rice, who faces a likely suspension following a street-racing crash in Dallas in late March.
  • Rice turned in an impressive rookie season, emerging as a huge part of the passing game late in the season. Over his final 10 games (including four playoff games), Rice averaged 6.9 catches and 78 yards on a strong 8.8 yards per target.
• Mahomes returns to the same offense led by HC Andy Reid and OC Matt Nagy.
• The Chiefs have ranked top 9 in pass attempts in five of six seasons since Mahomes took over, including four straight top-5 finishes.
• Their ranks in pass rate:
  • 2018 - 10th
  • 2019 - 8th
  • 2020 - 7th
  • 2021 - 5th
  • 2022 - 4th
  • 2023 - 5th
• The Chiefs return four of five starters on the offensive line, opting to not re-sign LT Donovan Smith, who ranked 50th among 59 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 pass-blocking grades. He’ll be replaced by either 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris or 2024 second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia.