Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

A pair of injuries disrupted Waddle's 2023.

His volume mirrored a dynamic 2022, though. Beyond the injuries, a lack of TDs accounted for the primary difference between the seasons. And we know TD rates can fluctuate from season to season.

More broadly, we have a prime-year WR with (1) QB/HC continuity and (2) a clear path to ~120 targets.

Waddle remains a strong WR2.

What We Learned Last Year

• Waddle missed time with two injuries.
  • A Week 2 concussion cost him one game.
  • A Week 16 high-ankle sprain forced him to sit until the Wild Card round.
• The 25-year-old still set career highs in yards per route run (2.63) and targets per route (0.26).
• His high-end fantasy upside took a step back, despite a career-high in attempts (and 17 games) from Tua Tagovailoa.
  • Waddle posted two top-12 fantasy finishes; six at WR36 or worse.
  • He posted a career-low 4 TDs, including only one over his final seven games (postseason included).
  • Waddle’s 11.9% red zone target share nearly matched what he tallied in 2022.
  • His average depth of target dropped from 12.2 (‘22) to 10.4.
  • 12.5% of his targets came on deep balls, down slightly from 14% from ‘22.

What to Expect in 2024

• Waddle signed a three-year extension in May. He’s now one of the league’s top paid WRs – and under contract through the 2028 season.
• He returns to play the No. 2 role behind Tyreek Hill.
  • Hill’s now 30. But outside of a late-season ankle injury, the former Chief showed no signs of slowing down.
• Miami added Odell Beckham and rookie WRs Malik Washington (Round 6) and Tahj Washington (Round 7).
  • No addition will impact Waddle’s 2024 role.
• Tua Tagovailoa returns for year three in HC Mike McDaniels’ system.
  • We should be getting the best version of Tua, who was excellent in a quick-strike passing game last season.
  • We’ll just keep an eye on the development of this O-line, which on paper, looks to have taken a step back.