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Jahan Dotson - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsJahan Dotson’s Basic Stats

Jahan Dotson
ADP: N/A
Bye: 5
Experience: 3
Age: 24.6
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 184
40 Time: 4.43

Burst Score (Rank): 121.70 (52%)
Catch Radius (Rank): 9.85 (23%)

Jahan Dotson's Weekly Outlook

Week 12 Projections
Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
1 12.4 0.08 1.8
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
1.4 18 0.1 2.5

Jahan Dotson's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#94 Wide Receiver

76.8 Projected Points

ADP Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs 100 Fum
Not Available 27.8 352.2 2.15 0 0

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsJahan Dotson's Preseason Player Analysis

View WR Fantasy Rankings »

Bottom Line

Dotson burned fantasy owners in 2023, but it would be wrong to completely ignore him this summer.

He’s a 24-year-old former Round 1 pick. And he’s positioned to retain a starting spot after the Commanders WR corps – at least on paper – took a step back.

Questions remain about rookie QB Jayden Daniels and new HC Kliff Kingsbury. Still, at the cost of a late-round pick, Dotson’s worth the minimal investment.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Doston played for new Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy.
    • His offense allowed Sam Howell to lead the NFL in pass attempts.
    • Washington finished first in pass rate; third in pass rate over expected.
  • Still, fed 83 targets, Dotson’s play regressed following a promising rookie year (2022 produced 35-523-7 in 12 games.)
    • Recall that he entered the league as the 16th overall pick.
  • Last year, among 50 WRs with 80+ targets, Dotson ranked 37th in catch rate, 44th in yards per catch, 49th in yards after catch per reception, and 49th in yards per route run.
  • He managed just 0.13 targets per route run.
  • His target share? Third on the team at 13.8%.
  • Dotson never became a reliable fantasy play in lineup-setting formats. He finished as a top-36 WR four times ... and outside the top 50 ten times.
    • He was held off the stat sheet in Week 6 (at Atlanta), Week 10 (at Seattle) and Week 17 (vs. San Francisco).
    • Dotson topped 50 yards on only three occasions.
  • QB play certainly wasn’t an ally. Only 76.3% of Dotson's targets were charted as catchable -- 53rd in a 72 WR sample.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Washington lost Curtis Samuel to free agency and replaced him with late-Round 3 rookie Luke McCaffrey.
    • McCaffrey is a convered QB who’s on the raw side. Most analysts expected him to be a Round 5-6 pick.
    • McCaffrey mostly played in the slot in college (71%). Dotson has split his time out wide (64%) and in the slot.
    • Samuel’s absence removes 91 targets from the ‘23 offense.
    • Washington added TEs Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott. Their presence shouldn’t impact Dotson’s role.
  • QB Jayden Daniels arrives as the second overall pick.
    • He’ll turn 24 in December and brings plenty of experience (55 starts).
    • He’s a top-tier athlete with the ability to extend plays – a theoretical benefit for Dotson’s downfield upside.
    • Note: only 12.7% of Dotson’s 2023 targets came on deep balls (20+ air yards).
  • OC Kliff Kingsburry enters year one in Washington.
    • His Arizona offenses ranked 18th, 15th, 18th, and 4th in pass attempts.
    • Kingsburry’s units ranked 1st, 6th, 8th, and 6th in total WR target share.

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A.J. Brown, WR PHI

8:45pm EDT 9/25/24

A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith Out Wednesday

Eagles WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) did not practice on Wednesday. Smith is unlikely to clear protocol in time for this weekend's game vs. the Bucs. And Brown looks no better than 50/50 to make it back for that one. If both guys are out, Philadelphia would be down to WRs Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson on the active roster. WR Parris Campbell was elevated from the practice squad for last week's game and would likely play again on Sunday. RB Saquon Barkley and TE Dallas Goedert would be the focal points of the offense.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Eagles WR DeVonta Smith left in the fourth quarter of the game at New Orleans with a concussion. That obviously means he'll miss the rest of the game and will then need to pass through the league protocol before returning.

View Full Story »

Eagles WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game vs. the Saints after missing practice all week. We’ll see if he can make it back for Week 4. WR Jahan Dotson registered an 86% route rate with Brown out last week but saw just one target. He can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups.

View all A.J. Brown Shark Bites »

Eagles WR Jahan Dotson did -- according to the numbers -- run as the No. 2 WR in A.J. Brown's absence for Monday night's loss to the Falcons. But you wouldn't have had an easy time finding him. Despite running a route on 30 of QB Jalen Hurts' 35 drobacks (85.7%), Dotson drew just 1 target among 30 pass attempts. That trailed DeVonta Smith's team-leading total by nine, fell four short of RB Saquon Barkley, and even checked in five short of No. 3 WR Britain Covey.

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Dynasty Overview View WR Dynasty Rankings »

Jahan Dotson, WR PHI
Dynasty MVP 8.1
Position Rank #91 WR
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
138
221
403
Dynasty Write-up
Washington made Dotson the fifth WR off the board in 2022. After a promising rookie year, his progress hit a roadblock alongside QB Sam Howell and OC Eric Bieniemy. He was traded in August to Philly, where he's stuck behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
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