Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Pacheco ranked 14th among RBs in PPR and non-PPR points per game last year. He was even better in seven games without RB Jerick McKinnon, posting a scoring average that would have ranked third at his position.

McKinnon remains unsigned as of now, leaving Clyde Edwards-Helaire as Kansas City’s No. 2 RB – and giving Pacheco legitimate RB1 upside in a high-scoring Chiefs offense.

Durability is a concern, but Pacheco is a value anywhere in Round 3 or beyond.

What We Learned Last Year

• Pacheco ranked 14th among RBs in both PPR and non-PPR points per game last year.
• He missed Weeks 14 and 15 with a shoulder injury and was held out of a meaningless regular-season finale.
• In his 14 games, Pacheco averaged:
  • 14.6 carries
  • 66.8 rushing yards
  • 3.5 targets
  • 3.1 catches
  • 17.4 receiving yards
  • 0.6 TDs
• He was even busier and more productive in seven games (including 3 playoff games) without RB Jerick McKinnon. In those, Pacheco averaged:
  • 17.9 carries
  • 82.1 rushing yards
  • 3.7 targets
  • 3.6 catches
  • 15.6 receiving yards
  • 1.1 TDs
• His 20.2 PPR points per game in those outings would have ranked third among RBs on the season.
• Pacheco’s usage equated to 18.8 expected PPR points per game, which would have ranked sixth at his position.
• Pacheco was effective as a runner last year. Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries, he ranked:
  • 17th in yards after contact per attempt
  • 27th in missed tackles forced per attempt
  • 8th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt
  • 10th in Pro Football Focus rushing grade
• Pacheco ranked just 29th in yards per route run among 43 RBs with 30+ targets but ranked 11th in PFF receiving grade.
• Pacheco emerged over the second half of his 2022 rookie season, ranking 13th league-wide in carries and fifth in rushing yards.
• His 4.7 yards per carry over the last two years ranks 12th among 49 RBs with 200+ carries during that span.

What to Expect in 2024

• Jerick McKinnon remains unsigned as of now, giving Pacheco a RB1-level ceiling similar to what we saw in his seven games without McKinnon last year.
• The Chiefs’ RB depth chart behind Pacheco:
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  • Deneric Prince
  • Louis Rees-Zammit
  • Keaontay Ingram
• The Chiefs have typically ranked in the top half of the league in total RB PPR points under HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes:
  • 2018 - 5th
  • 2019 - 16th
  • 2020 - 25th
  • 2021 - 15th
  • 2022 - 5th
  • 2023 - 11th
• The 2023 Chiefs ranked 20th in Adjusted Line Yards and 18th in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
• They return four of five starters on the offensive line, opting to not re-sign LT Donovan Smith, who ranked 67th among 70 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 pass-blocking grades. He’ll be replaced by either 2023 third-round pick Wanya Morris or 2024 second-rounder Kingsley Suamataia.
• The biggest concern with Pacheco is durability.
  • He underwent surgeries on his hand and shoulder shortly after the 2022 season.
  • He re-injured that shoulder last year, had a clean-up procedure, and missed two games.
  • Pacheco also suffered a concussion in Week 16, although he was cleared for Week 17.
  • Our Injury Predictor gives him a 90.4% chance of injury this season and 3.40 projected games missed – both second most among RBs.