David Njoku - Fantasy Points Outlook

Bottom Line

Njoku followed an encouraging 2022 with a strong 2023. We can’t ignore, though, that he has produced worse with Deshaun Watson than without him over their two years together. And we can’t ignore the potential impact Jerry Jeudy’s arrival might have on Njoku’s target ceiling. There’s still enough to like here to support Njoku’s low-TE1 market price (and position in our rankings). But keep in mind that TEs in that range haven’t typically been high-value fantasy selections.

What We Learned Last Year

• We probably shouldn’t call it a breakout season. Njoku finished 2022 ranked ninth among TEs in PPR points per game. He also checked in ninth in total PPR points back in 2018, his second season. But 2023 was probably his best season to date.
• Njoku set career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, TDs, catches and yards per game, and yards per route.
• He ranked seventh in that last category among 36 TEs who reached 40 targets.
  • Njoku also checked in sixth at the position in target share and tied for sixth in PPR points per game (with a career high in that category).
• The TE had a couple of decent games among QB Deshaun Watson’s five full outings. But his best production came after Watson went down.
  • Things actually went similarly for Njoku in 2022. He averaged 4.4 receptions, 51 yards, and 10.7 PPR points per game in Jacoby Brissett starts; 3.4 receptions, 32.8 yards, and 9.0 PPR points after Watson came off suspension.
• One key factor there might be his target depth. That shortened for Njoku each of the past two years. Watson, however, throws deeper (on average) than most other QBs who started games for Cleveland over the past two years.
  • Interestingly, Joe Flacco worked further downfield in his late-2023 stint – like Watson. But Njoku enjoyed strong numbers in those games.
  • A late ankle injury for Amari Cooper and increased passing volume helped.
  • Njoku’s aDOT also increased over that late-season span, though. That seems like another indication of QB effect.
• For the year, Njoku drew 15.6% target share in Watson’s five full games vs. 22.5% in the other 11.

What to Expect in 2024

• The Browns get Watson back from the shoulder injury that ended his 2023 and required surgery. His return will bear watching throughout the summer, as the QB was not yet back to full duty in June minicamp.
• Cleveland also traded for WR Jerry Jeudy and quickly gave him a hefty three-year extension ($17.5 million annual average). Jeudy joins Amari Cooper to likely form a pretty clear top 2 in the passing game.
• WR Elijah Moore has showed with two teams over the past two years that he’s probably not headed for a high-impact or high-volume career. Njoku beat him by 19 targets in one fewer game last year and should be an even better bet to beat Moore in 2024.
  • The Jeudy addition, though, likely lowers the target ceiling for the TE.
• The Browns changed OCs in the offseason, hiring Ken Dorsey after his stint in Buffalo. Dorsey ran one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses there before getting fired midway through last season. Even with nearly a half-year of Joe Brady leaning further toward the run, those Bills ranked fourth in neutral-situation pass rate.
  • Cleveland ranked 19th in that category over the past two seasons.
• Combine the OC change, the Jeudy moves, and Nick Chubb’s serious knee injury, and it’s not hard to imagine the 2024 Browns throwing the ball more. Perhaps significantly more.
• Such a shift would obviously help Njoku’s outlook – even if Watson continues to prove suboptimal for the TE’s production.