Jaguars TE Evan Engram enjoyed a big rebound season in 2022, both in real football and fantasy. That included finishing fifth among TEs in PPR points, fifth in targets, fourth in receptions and yards, and tied for 11th in TDs. Engram's eight top-12 weekly finishes also tied him for sixth at the position. But his weekly lows dipped pretty low. Engram's median weekly PPR finish for the year was TE16. That tied Gerald Everett for just 13th. Jacksonville returns WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, each of whom earned higher Pro Football Focus receiving grades than Engram for the season. WR Calvin Ridley adds a new challenge for targets, and he arrives as arguably the biggest receiving talent on the team. Engram deserves top-12 consideration among TEs in fantasy drafts this year. But his TE8-9 ADP so far puts him a little higher than his spot in our TE rankings. You can mix him in if you're drafting a lot of teams, especially in best ball lineups that include QB Trevor Lawrence. But Engram hasn't been a target player for us in early drafting. Read more specifics about Engram's outlook on his player page.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne got a big boost in rushing volume after the team quit on RB James Robinson last season. He went from 32% carry share over the first six games to 61.4% from Week 7 on. But Etienne actually lost target share after Robinson's demotion. He drew 8.9% over the first six games vs. just 6.5% the rest of the way. That's a legitimate concern heading into Year 3, especially after Jacksonville selected RB Tank Bigsby in Round 3. The rookie claimed a class-leading 15.3% target share at Auburn in 2022. If Bigsby beats -- or even matches -- Etienne in receiving opportunities, the incumbent's ceiling would come down. Etienne's RB13 ADP matches his current spot in our PPR rankings. But there's downside risk from that position.
Chad Graff of The Athletic writes that it was a “rough spring” for the Patriots’ O-line. Graff points out struggles at OT while noting that key RG Mike Onwenu missed spring practices (ankle surgery). We're not altering projections for Mac Jones or Rhamondre Stevenson. But we’ll keep a close eye on this unit as the pads come on at training camp.
There's no QB competition in New England, according to Evan Lazar of the team's official website. "Mac Jones works hard, he's bought in, and his confidence is returning," Lazar writes. "Jones' command as a field general at the line of scrimmage is lightyears ahead of where things were last year. ... Jones is also throwing with his vintage touch and accuracy on crossers and fades (outside/slot) to generate big plays." Jones still isn't an exciting fantasy pick. He doesn't offer rushing upside, and New England's pass-catching corps is underwhelming. But being locked in as the starter at least makes Jones a fine QB3 target in superflex and best-ball drafts.
Bills WR Gabe Davis is looking to rebound from an injury-marred 2022. He suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 2, returning after just one absence. According to GM Brandon Beane, Davis struggled to shake the pain. “Not to make excuses, but it definitely bothered him,” Beane said at the NFL Combine. "You can just watch the film when he was coming out of his cuts, he was taking an extra step which allowed that defender to stay attached to him as well." Davis’ boom-or-bust label likely sticks following the addition of rookie TE Dalton Kincaid. We at least saw flashes of the good last year with a pair of top-12 fantasy finishes. Most impressive: Davis’ 3-171-2 line vs. Pittsburgh in Week 5. See where he slots in our PPR WR rankings.
Jaguars HC Doug Pederson complimented his team’s RB depth. “I feel really good about that room,” Pederson said. “There's a lot of depth there. There's some great competition that's going to show up with training camp. This is one of our stronger rooms on the team, and we're excited about that.” Travis Etienne returns, but Jacksonville spent a Round 3 pick on Auburn’s Tank Bigsby. ESPN reporter Michael DiRocco points out that Etienne handled a hefty 74% carry share following the James Robinson trade — a mark the Jags don’t want repeated. See our projections for this new-look backfield.
The Jaguars chose Penn State WR Parker Washington in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. Washington sported one of the class' youngest breakout ages (18.5) and was an early declare. He's yet another short prospect in a class full of them, though. Washington also missed out on pre-draft testing because of the left ankle injury that ended his season early. Washington faces an uphill battle after landing in Round 6. We'll see whether he can climb the Jacksonville depth chart.
The Jaguars selected Auburn RB Tank Bigbsy in Round 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft. Bigsby played his college career behind one of the nation’s worst offensive lines. Through four head coaches in three years, he tallied no fewer than 900 scrimmage yards in every season in the Tigers’ offense. In many ways, Bigsby single-handedly carried the Auburn offense throughout his career. Between his creativity and phenomenal center of gravity, Bigsby is among the toughest runners in this rookie class. In Jacksonville, he projects as the long-term compliment to Travis Etienne. Current backfield depth options include Snoop Conner, D'Ernest Johnson, and JaMycal Hasty.
The Jaguars selected Penn State TE Brenton Strange in Round 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. At 6’4, 253 pounds, Strange posted 32-362-5 (13 games) as a senior. He tested as an impressive athlete, with a Relative Athletic Score of 9.06 (out of 10). Strange will spend 2023 behind Evan Engram, who’s set to play on the franchise tag. But there’s starting opportunity as soon as 2024.
Bills QB Josh Allen wants to get WR Gabriel Davis in more "catch-and-run" situations this season. Davis was used largely as a deep threat last year, with 29.2% of his targets coming 20+ yards downfield -- the 9th highest rate among 74 qualifiers. His 2.7 yards after the catch per reception ranked 70th. That's likely somewhat a function of Davis' skill set -- but at least partly due to how the Bills deployed him. More catch-and-run opportunities certainly wouldn't hurt his fantasy value. Davis is coming cheaper in fantasy drafts this year than last, with an FFPC best-ball ADP currently sitting in Round 9.
Patriots HC Bill Belichick refused to commit to QB Mac Jones as his 2023 starter when asked at the league meetings this week. “Everybody will get a chance to play," Belichick said. "Everybody that’s on our roster, if they earn the opportunity to play, then based on what they do in practice and all that, then they’ll get an opportunity to play.” It's a classic Belichickian response that we're not reading much into. QB Bailey Zappe was better than expected when pressed into duty last season. But Jones is the guy New England spent a 1st-round pick on just two years ago. He'll have a much better chance this season now that the Patriots have an actual OC in Bill O'Brien running the offense. That said, Jones is an unexciting QB2 option in early best-ball drafts.
The Jaguars signed RB D'Ernest Johnson to a one-year deal. Johnson was excellent in a trio of spot starts back in 2021, posting 22-146-1, 19-99-0, and 25-123-1 rushing lines. He led all 50 qualifying RBs in 2021 Pro Football Focus rushing grades. Johnson got on the field for just 35 offensive snaps this past season, though, with both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt healthy. Johnson now joins JaMycal Hasty behind Travis Etienne in Jacksonville's backfield. Neither guy is likely to have standalone fantasy value. But, if Etienne misses time, we'd expect Johnson to lead in carries, with Hasty handling passing-down work.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Jaguars are expected to put the franchise tag on TE Evan Engram. The accompanying one-year deal would pay Engram $11.345 million. That wouldn't be a crazy boost from the $9 million he got on a one-year deal with Jacksonville last offseason. Engram finished 2022 ranked fifth among TEs in PPR points; eighth in points per game. He's currently going 7th among TEs in Underdog ADP and ninth in early FFPC drafting. Engram's an OK target in that range, though he'll face extra competition this season if the NFL reinstates WR Calvin Ridley. We expected Jacksonville to keep Engram and won't be surprised if they reach a longer-term deal.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne told reporters Monday that he was "happy" to finish his 2nd season healthy. But, according to Jaguars Wire, he added, "I just want to put on a little muscle mass, a little more weight, because those guys are really big." Etienne later listed pass protection as an area in which he wants to improve. Weakness in that area might have helped limited Etienne's playing time over the final 4 games, when he played fewer than 30 snaps 3 times (compared with 49+ in 8 straight non-injury games before that). Adding bulk isn't always a great thing for a speedy back, because too much extra muscle can slow him down. Even if that doesn't happen, this change doesn't seem likely to address Etienne's main fantasy issue: a lack of receptions. We'll certainly be watching all factors as the former 1st-round pick approaches his 3rd season. Etienne looks decent as an option in Round 3 or 4 of early best-ball drafts.
Patriots insider Mark Daniels hears that QB Mac Jones is "very excited" about the hiring of new OC Bill O'Brien. Jones seemed uncomfortable in and frustrated by New England's offense this past season. He and O'Brien briefly overlapped back in 2021, when O'Brien was hired by Alabama and Jones was in the pre-draft process. It’ll be “nice to start a new working relationship with someone that you already have had the opportunity to work with," a source close to Jones told Daniels. Jones is a 2023 bounce-back candidate after his numbers dipped across the board this past year -- although we're still not excited about his fantasy upside.
The Patriots hired Bill O'Brien as OC. He returns to the same position he held in 2011, when New England ranked 2nd in total yards and 3rd in points with QB Tom Brady. O'Brien was also on the Patriots' offensive staff from 2007 to 2010, so he has plenty of familiarity with the organization. Since leaving New England after that 2011 campaign, O'Brien spent 2 years as Penn State's HC, 7 years as the Texans' HC and, most recently, the past 2 years as Alabama's OC. If nothing else, the Patriots will have a legitimate offensive mind running the offense in 2023 -- something they didn't have this past season.
Jags WR Christian Kirk snagged 7 balls for 52 yards and 1 score in the Divisional Round loss to Kansas City. He tied a season-high (and matched last week’s number) with 14 targets. He nearly cracked 100 yards in this one, but a well-thrown deep ball from Trevor Lawrence bounced off Kirk’s hands. The former Cardinal exited the regular season with 84-1,108-8 on 133 targets, enough to make him WR11 in PPR. He’ll enter year 2 in Jacksonville alongside newly acquired WR Calvin Ridley. We’ll see where their ADPs shake out in early drafting.
Jags RB Travis Etienne ripped off 62 yards and 1 score in Saturday’s loss at Kansas City. He did so on only 10 attempts. Backup JaMycal Hasty chipped in with 4 carries, although the bigger story here was Hasty’s involvement as the go-to back when Jacksonville played from behind. On the year, Etienne tallied only 35 catches (2.05 per game) on 45 targets — 5th most on the team. Target competition will remain stiff next fall given the addition of Calvin Ridley. We’ll see if the Jags tinker with the backfield, as Hasty is slated for restricted free agency.
Jags QB Trevor Lawrence completed 24 of 39 passes for 217 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in Saturday’s loss at Kansas City. Lawrence was up and down in this one, throwing a couple of passes (beyond the 1 INT) that should have been intercepted. However, this game could have turned out differently had Christian Kirk hauled in a beautifully thrown deep ball. Overall, Lawrence took a massive step forward in year 2. Future growth isn’t out of the question with newfound coaching stability — plus the impending arrival of Calvin Ridley.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (toe) is active for today’s Divisional Round game vs. the Chiefs. He was limited in practice all week but shouldn’t be inhibited today. Lawrence posted a 259-2-0 passing line in Kansas City back in Week 10. The Chiefs finished the regular season 31st in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.
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