10-Team Draft Strategy

 

How do you draft in a 10-team league?

The key to your 10-team draft strategy is chasing optimal performers at as many spots as possible.

You might think that’s the obvious goal for any fantasy football draft – and you wouldn’t be wrong.

But the smaller your league gets, the more important it becomes to find individual advantages.

In a 10-team league, there will be enough good players to give every team a solid-to-good lineup. That’s why you’ll need to try for optimal production in as many spots as possible.

That might mean grabbing a QB or TE earlier than you typically would in a 12-team draft. It might also mean collecting multiple risk-reward types at a certain position so that you can benefit from whichever one breaks out.

And it can be as simple as pinpointing the players with the most breakout potential throughout your draft.

We’ve Got Tools to Help You Build

We’ve built our 3D projections to provide the fantasy football help you need.

We combine:

1. Award-winning projections from our fantasy football analysts
2. Ceiling and floor projections to capture a player’s range of outcomes
3. Consensus projections from 38 other fantasy sites

The result: a much better representation of player value, one that will continuously update as you draft.

The Draft War Room will guide you throughout your draft. And it’s just one of many fantasy football tools we’ve built to help you win.

See the Logic at Work

Below you’ll get a preview of the Draft War Room’s guidance.

I’ve used a sample board for a 10-team, non-PPR league and run through drafts from every position to give you top strategies.

Simply choose your draft position to get started …

 

10-Team Non-PPR Guide for Pick 1

Round 1

Top Target: Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey (100.0 3D Value points) sits pretty comfortably ahead of:

• No. 2 CeeDee Lamb (93.0)
• and No. 3 Tyreek Hill (88.6)

… in this format.

And he checks in way ahead of the next RB, Breece Hall (78.1). So he gets his own section here.

It’s gonna take an injury for McCaffrey to let you down. And you can insure against that possibility.

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: De'Von Achane & Deebo Samuel

If drafting goes according to ADP for this format, then you’ll probably find Achane and Joe Mixon leading the ranks at the end of Round 2.

After you tap that second RB, the board should push WR to the top, led by Samuel.

Next Best: Joe Mixon & Mike Evans

It’s OK to roll with your favorite among Samuel, Evans and London. They’re separated by just 3.2 points in 3D Value on the sample board I’m using.

Even if you need to start three WRs, this will probably be a good turn to grab one RB and one WR. The wideouts over the next few rounds should support you just fine in a non-PPR format.

Mixon trails Etienne here but goes from one good offensive situation to another. Houston shifted away from RB Dameon Pierce last season, and the team clearly believes Mixon to be a significant upgrade over Devin Singletary. (Otherwise the Texans could have kept Singletary for less.)

Other options

Drake London, De'Von Achane

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Kenneth Walker III & Jaylen Waddle

This looks like another good turn for splitting your picks between RB and WR.

Walker has gotten three-down buzz during camp. Waddle's a steal if he gets here.

Next Best: Brandon Aiyuk & Malik Nabers

If Walker's gone, then drafting a pair of WRs here makes more sense than chasing after the next RB.

Other Options

D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Tee Higgins & Dak Prescott

If you take Higgins to close Round 6, then the Draft War Room likely pushes Prescott to the top. And if Prescott's gone, it doesn't push another QB to the top.

That says there's separation between the Cowboys passer and the next guys: Kyler Murray and Jordan Love. ADP also says none of the three will make it back to you in Round 8.

Of course, you could still push QB off until later if you want. Use the Mock Draft Trainer to test out variations like that.

Next Best: Calvin Ridley & David Montgomery

Ridley got a boost in our rankings from DeAndre Hopkins' knee injury. He'd be a fine play as your WR4.

Montgomery's obviously well set up for at least some spike weeks.

Splitting work with Jahmyr Gibbs could challenge his weekly consistency. But the vet will make for an attractive starting option whenever the Lions are favored (and thus more likely to run the ball).

Other Options

Kyle Pitts, Jonathon Brooks, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Najee Harris & Jake Ferguson

Ferguson comes off a TE8 non-PPR finish in his first full starting turn.

He ranked second among Cowboys and seventh among TEs in targets, and Ferguson’s best outing of the year came in the playoffs (10-93-3) – so it didn’t even count for his impressive 2023 line.

Harris gains some early-season upside from Jaylen Warren's hamstring injury, but he carries enough value for this range even with Warren available.

New OC Arthur Smith has run one of the league's most run-heavy offenses for five straight years across two stops.

Next Best: Jayden Daniels & Raheem Mostert

If you addressed QB earlier, then Daniels won't come up. But if you didn't, he might sit even higher.

It would be fine to push TE even further. You won't run out of options in a 10-team league. It would also be fine to reach over the second RB recommendation and grab a WR if you'd prefer RB-WR balance out of this turn.

Other options

Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Christian Watson

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy & Zack Moss

Moss has fallen behind backfield mate Chase Brown in ADP. That could make Moss the better value by the time you're drafting. Expect a split backfield in Cincinnati, which has supported good RB production when QB Joe Burrow has been healthy.

Worthy gains some upside from Marquise Brown's shoulder injury, but he's more of a full-season bet than a potential September fantasy starter.

Next Best: DeAndre Hopkins & Nick Chubb

The RB names might vary based on who remains undrafted in your league and who moves up or down our rankings amid summer reports and injuries. The main takeaway: This is another good turn for grabbing one RB and one WR.

Of course, you can opt for two WRs if you’d prefer, based on what you drafted to this point.

Hopkins' knee injury obviously adds risk, but that's built into his draft price if he lasts this long. A healthy Hopkins remains a potential target leader.

None of us knows whether Chubb will get close to being himself at any point this year. But if he does from a deep reserve spot on your roster, the payoff would be huge.

Other Options

Rome Odunze, Jameson Williams, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Taysom Hill & Jared Goff

Hill stands out on my board as the clear top player by 3D Value, even with a TE already rostered.

New Orleans coaches have indicated multiple times that Hill's headed for a stronger role this year. He's an easier bet to make in non-PPR, which relies more on TDs and presents less weekly consistency.

Unfortunately, most fantasy platforms have designated him a QB this year. If that's the case in your league, pass over him.

We've left Hill at TE for now, though, because of exactly this scenario. There's intriguing upside for drafters who can play him at TE.

Next Best: Jameson Williams & Trevor Lawrence

Hill aside, this is a good turn for a backup QB and upside at WR.

You certainly don't need to take a second QB in a 10-team league. Honestly, I wouldn't in most cases -- unless:

• a particularly intriguing player slides
• I find a good match for my starter's early bye week
• my league uses deep rosters

Of course, the 3D values here say there's nothing wrong with taking that second QB in this range.

Other Options

Trey Benson, Gus Edwards, Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett, Brian Thomas Jr.

 

Rounds 14, 15, & 16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Across these rounds, you should add one more upside play at whatever position makes sense and address the final two starting spots.

Try to target a kicker in a good offense.

As for D, we’ve added Trust Factor this year to help differentiate your options. That favors the DST units with more favorable season-opening matchups and downgrades those with poor matchups.

Why? Because you should target matchups more than trying to lean on a season-long starter at that position.

 

10-Team Non-PPR Guide for Pick 2 or 3

Round 1

Top Target: CeeDee Lamb

We’re assuming, of course, that Christian McCaffrey went first. The fact that two WRs follow him in these recommendations – both with sizable leads over RB2 Breece Hall – is another mark in McCaffrey’s favor as the top option.

Next Best: Tyreek Hill

Arguments don’t really need to be made for Lamb or Hill. Both dominated target shares in good offenses last year and produced efficiently on that usage.

If you just feel better going RB for the format, that’s fine. But practice both ways with your Mock Draft Trainer to see which supplies you a better roster in the end.

Other Options

Breece Hall

 

Rounds 2 & 3

Top Targets: Travis Etienne & De’Von Achane

This is a good range to grab two RBs, assuming you went WR in Round 1.

Etienne comes off an inefficient 2023 but served as Jacksonville’s workhorse, ranking seventh league wide in opportunity share.

Achane’s the Opposite

He’s not built for big workloads but proved wildly efficient as a rookie (7.8 yards per carry; TD on 8.5% of his touches).

Achane will have a tough time matching that efficiency in 2024, but he’s likely to get more work – if only because he played in just 11 games last season.

He pairs well with Etienne as a floor-ceiling combo.

Next Best: Joe Mixon & Kenneth Walker III

Mixon and Walker both fit more of the Etienne mold.

Mixon moves from one good offense (Cincinnati) to another (Houston). We’ll see exactly how he fares with his new team, but the Texans’ move points to continued heavy workloads.

Walker has generated some three-down buzz in camp and could pay off big time if he plays that type of role.

Josh Jacobs might pop ahead of him on your board. We project Walker higher; the consensus rankings prefer Jacobs. And ADP says Walker will stay on the board longer. It's fine to lean toward your favorite between them.

Other Options

Josh Jacobs, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Drake London

 

Rounds 4 & 5

Top Targets: Deebo Samuel & Kenneth Walker III

Leaving Round 5 with three RBs and two WRs looks like a good start for your 10-team, non-PPR draft.

Samuel would likely climb in ADP if Brandon Aiyuk gets his trade request granted. Until then, though, he’s a nice WR2 target in this range.

If you didn't take Walker last time, smile at getting the same upside case later in your draft.

He’s a nice fit as a RB3.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle & Mark Andrews

If Walker’s gone, you might see another RB such as David Montgomery jump to the top of your Round 5 recommendations.

He’d be fine, but Montgomery’s ADP currently sits early in Round 7. So you might get another shot at him. And even if you don’t, there should be other attractive RBs in that range.

Waddle makes sense as a fall back here if Samuel’s gone. If Walker goes, however, you might not necessarily want to go RB.

Mark Andrews Looks Slightly Undervalued

The Ravens veteran sits second in our TE rankings but third at the position in ADP for this format – nearly two full rounds behind No. 2 Sam LaPorta (5.1 vs. 3.3).

He’s a strong piece to add if he gets to you in this range. ADP says he and another four TEs won’t make it back to you in Round 6.

If you lean away from Andrews here (two WRs would be fine as well), you’re probably best off waiting until the 8-9 turn to address TE …

Other options: 

Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp

 

Rounds 6 & 7

Top Targets: Dak Prescott & Tee Higgins

Joe Burrow sat here initially, but ADP says you can't expect him to get here anymore.

That's OK. The consolation QB here finished third in fantasy scoring last season.

And Higgins? He's an easy value in Round 7 as your third -- or maybe even fourth -- WR.

Higgins finished top-15 in fantasy points per game each of the past two years he got a healthy Burrow.

Next Best: Tank Dell & David Montgomery

If Burrow and Prescott are gone, the next QBs likely don't quite make it to the top of your board.

That signals a tier break at the position -- at least by our rankings. That doesn't mean you need to take Prescott. But it's worth noting.

Dell and several other WR options look fine here if your league didn't let you get Higgins. And Montgomery leads several RB options if you don't go QB at this turn.

Other Options

James Conner, Jonathon Brooks, Kyle Pitts, Amari Cooper, George Pickens, D'Andre Swift

 

Rounds 8 & 9

Top Targets: Najee Harris & Jake Ferguson

Harris holds a slight lead over the other RBs at this turn. He should get plenty of work to support this draft investment, under an OC who has ranked among the league's most run-happy across five years of running two offenses.

It's also OK to pass on Harris, if you want, for one of the other RBs near him in the ranks.

You Can Steal a TE Mid-Draft

Ferguson? He’s simply a good value at this point.

He finished eighth in fantasy points among TEs in his first full starting season – despite his best fantasy outing (10-93-3) coming in the playoffs.

Next Best: Jonathon Brooks & Brock Bowers

Like Mostert, Williams doesn’t fit the “safe” category at RB. But he does present upside.

Williams ranked 21st in opportunity share among RBs last season, despite coming off a serious knee injury. His ADP: RB29.

Other Options

Raheem Mostert, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Watson

 

Rounds 10 & 11

Top Targets: DeAndre Hopkins & Jayden Daniels

Hopkins' injured knee is expected to be ready for the season, though we'll certainly watch for status updates as Week 1 draws closer.

Either way, he's a low-risk option at this stage of your draft -- with the upside to continue leading target share in what should be a much more pass-friendly Titans offense this year.

Daniels pops as an option even if you drafted Prescott earlier.

If both hit, you’re in great shape.

Of course, you don’t need to draft a second QB at all as part of your 10-team draft strategy.

Next Best: Xavier Worthy & Zack Moss

Worthy pulled a little ahead of teammate Marquise Brown after the latter's shoulder injury. Frankly, pairing up the Chiefs WRs on your roster would be a fine move at this stage of your draft.

Moss has seen his ADP dip thanks to Chase Brown drawing more attention. Both Bengals RBs remain close in our rankings. Getting either piece will give you access to what should be a productive (and split) backfield.

Other Options

Devin Singletary, Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers

 

Rounds 12 & 13

Top Targets: Jameson Williams & Trey Benson

Here’s an upside duo.

The talent is obvious with Williams, who hit the league as the 12th overall pick.

His career opened with a pair of lackluster seasons. But his fantasy football news  has already generated buzz in 2024.

Trey Benson Delivers Handcuff Upside

Benson doesn’t appear set for standalone value this season as long as James Conner’s healthy.

But if the veteran starter goes down, then the third-round rookie looks like his top replacement.

Every team has a potential handcuff target. But Benson’s contingent value resides with a starter who has missed 2+ games in each of his seven seasons.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton & Gus Edwards

Sutton might not be exciting but has already operated as his team’s lead WR. That’s enough to make him a value pick in this range of your draft.

Similarly, Edwards heads toward 2024 as the best bet to lead the Chargers’ backfield in carries. That role gains value for a team expected to go run-heavy.

Other Options

Dallas Goedert, Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett

 

Rounds 14, 15 & 16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Across these rounds, you should add one more upside play at whatever position makes sense and address the final two starting spots.

Try to target a kicker in a good offense.

As for D, we’ve added Trust Factor this year to help differentiate your options. That favors the DST units with more favorable season-opening matchups and downgrades those with poor matchups.

Why? Because you should target matchups more than trying to lean on a season-long starter at that position.

 

10-Team Half-PPR Guide for Pick 4, 5, 6, or 7

Round 1

Top Target: Breece Hall

Starting with any of the four guys listed for this range would be nice. Exactly who you get will depend on two things:

1. Where you pick (i.e. who’s available for you)
2. Whether you want a RB or WR to start

This quartet includes three players who have proved their fantasy studliness and a fourth (Robinson) who appears poised to do so.

Next Best: Bijan Robinson

Jefferson likely sits ahead of Robinson on your initial board. But if Breece Hall’s gone by your pick, then Robinson will jump ahead (unless you start three WRs).

You can tell by the slim initial 3D-Value margins that there’s not really a wrong answer.

Other Options

Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Jonathan Taylor

 

Round 2

Top Targets: Derrick Henry

Even if you start with a Round 1 RB, the board likely favors RB again here. Two key factors drive that:

1. ADP says these RBs will fly off the board in Round 2 of 10-team non-PPR drafts.
2. There should be plenty left at WR over the next three rounds.

Henry’s easy to like. Sure, he’s 30. But he showed no worrisome signs last year and has been a physical outlier his entire life.

Ravens HC John Harbaugh has also already said that you should expect Baltimore Henry to look a lot like Tennessee Henry.

Translation: We signed this guy to give him the ball a lot.

Next Best: Kyren Williams

Williams made it through training camp healthy and maintaining his clear lead position in the backfield.

Blake Corum's sure to get more work than any of the post-Cam Akers backfield mates drew last year. But he's not expected to challenge Williams' lead.

HC Sean McVay's announcement that Williams will return punts is weird -- and certainly rare for a lead RB. But McVay did have WR Cooper Kupp returning punts in 2020, a year he also led the team in receptions.

Other Options

Jahmyr Gibbs, Travis Etienne, Isaiah Pacheco, De’Von Achane

 

Round 3

Top Target: Mike Evans

If you get here with two RBs, then starting your WR corps looks like a good move.

Not much separates Evans from London and Deebo Samuel in 3D Value. So feel free to nab your favorite among them.

Evans checked in fourth among WRs in non-PPR scoring last year.

Next Best: Drake London

London looks like a strong candidate to break out after Atlanta dramatically upgraded at QB and likely upgraded the offensive system (at least for the passing parts).

Deebo Samuel's plenty attractive in this range as well, with more proven production than London.

Jalen Hurts also likely sits close to the top of your rankings, and you could grab the high-ceiling QB if you'd like. But the WRs edge him in 3D Value here.

Other Options

Jalen Hurts, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk

 

Round 4

Top Targets: Deebo Samuel

ADP currently says you can expect to still find Samuel on the board here. Don't count on it if you covet him. But if you're able to take Evans or London in Round 3 and then get Samuel here -- to go with that two-RB start -- then you might be building something special.

Next Best: Jaylen Waddle

Worst case: You play in one of the few WR-mad, 10-team, non-PPR leagues. If that’s the case, just take another RB here and really punish your league mates.

One of two things will happen in that situation:

1. You’ll open the season loaded with RB production and find some RB-needy league mates.
2. You’ll suffer an injury to a starter-level RB but already have his replacement loaded.

Either way, you’ll be able to fill in at WR – assuming you only need to start two.

Other options

Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk, D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp

 

Round 5

Top Targets: Kenneth Walker III

If you get here with two RBs and two WRs, then you're pretty much free to do what you want.

Walker presents good value here and would make for a strong non-PPR flex option.

You could lean WR if you'd rather, though. And based on the options by ADP, you could even plan to get your WR2 at this turn.

Next Best: Anthony Richardson

Richardson didn't top my board at this turn originally, but the upside is pretty easy to see. His only two full games last season found him ranking among the position's top 4 fantasy scorers each week.

If you've got starters at RB and WR already, it's fine to grab a potential QB advantage over reinforcements at the other spots.

Of course, it's also fine to pass on Richardson for another high-level rushing QB we've pumped up plenty this summer ...

Other Options

Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Rhamondre Stevenson

 

Round 6

Top Targets: Dak Prescott

Get here without a QB, and the Draft War Room's likely to favor Prescott.

You don't need to address the position here, but Prescott finished third among fantasy QBs last year. So you certainly could do worse.

Next Best: Tee Higgins

The last two years we got a healthy Joe Burrow, Higgins finished 17th (2021) and 11th (2022) in non-PPR points per game.

You'd take either of those in Round 7, right?

Other Options

David Montgomery, Jonathon Brooks, James Conner, Tank Dell, George Pickens

 

Round 7

Top Target: James Conner

You may remember Conner from such feats as finishing among the top 12 RBs in non-PPR points per game each of the past three seasons.

Conner and his nearly $9 million cap hit look poised to control the backfield once again – as long as he stays healthy.

Montgomery likely tops your RB rankings at this turn if he remains on the board. And he'd be a strong pick as well.

Next Best: Amari Cooper

Jonathon Brooks showed here previously. But HC Dave Canales' caution that the Panthers might ease their rookie into the season added some risk and knocked down his ADP.

That makes it easier to wait on Brooks, which also adds upside.

Cooper, meanwhile, has had a quiet summer thanks in part to some minor injury issues.

He similarly gains value the longer you can wait to draft him.

Other Options

George Pickens, Najee Harris, Chris Godwin

 

Round 8

Top Target: Jayden Reed

Reed's ADP has come down some, likely thanks to a still-muddled Packers WR corps.

He and the next guy at this turn would make for solid WR3s to strong WR4s at this stage.

Next Best: Terry McLaurin

Jayden Daniels might be the best QB of McLaurin’s career. We won’t know that, of course, until he actually gets on the field in the regular season. But he likely can’t get much worse than what Washington’s rolled out there.

McLaurin and the other WRs listed here all look good at this stage in your draft.

This also looks like a good range for QB if you didn’t take Hurts (or any other QB) earlier.

Other Options

Rashee Rice, Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love, Jake Ferguson

 

Round 9

Top Targets: Jake Ferguson

Ferguson’s availability this late looks like a key reason the Draft War Room didn’t make a TE your top recommendation earlier.

He ranked eighth among TEs in scoring for this format in his first starting turn – and Ferguson’s best outing (10-93-3) didn’t even come until the playoffs.

The TE ranked second among Cowboys in targets last year and could do so again.

Next Best: Raheem Mostert

I know Mostert’s not going to score as many fantasy points as he did last year.

You know Mostert’s fantasy scoring is gonna regress.

But the market knows it a little too much.

Mostert finished RB2 in non-PPR last year. His ADP for the format: RB26.

You can even put him on a roster that already includes Achane.

Other Options

Javonte Williams, DeAndre Hopkins

 

Round 10

Top Targets: Javonte Williams

Williams easily led Denver’s backfield in 2023 despite limited effectiveness coming off his serious knee injury.

If he maintains that role this year, we should see a better version in just his age-24 campaign.

This draft position builds in the risk that he loses work in a crowded backfield.

Next Best: Christian Watson

Watson’s sitting here marinating in upside.

Green Bay also treated him like a lead WR during the short time he was actually healthy last year – including peppering Watson with end-zone targets.

Only five players league wide drew more than Watson’s 15 last season, even though he only played nine games.

And he says they figured out his hamstring problem this offseason. He’ll need to prove that’s behind him, but this is plenty late enough to make the benefit outweigh the risk.

Other Options

Tony Pollard, Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy, Rome Odunze

 

Round 11

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy

This first-round rookie faces a wide range of potential outcomes. That includes trailing Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown. 

But it also includes benefiting from a potential Rice suspension and outperforming Brown (now on his third NFL team in six seasons).

This is the point in your draft when you should be chasing the upside and downplaying the risk.

Next Best: Rome Odunze

Same deal with Odunze, who’s basically in the same position. He doesn’t have a teammate awaiting suspension announcement, but he also doesn’t have Travis Kelce.

Odunze does have top-10 NFL Draft capital, though, and could outperform Keenan Allen right away.

Other Options

Jameson Williams, Courtland Sutton

 

Round 12

Top Targets: Dallas Goedert

Do you need a second TE? No.

Is a second one fine to grab at this stage to platoon? Yes.

Or you could even wait until this range and make Goedert your first. He’s not thrilling but resides in one of the league’s best scoring offenses and should rank third on the team in targets.

Next Best: Courtland Sutton

The value gap on Sutton isn’t as drastic as it is with Mostert, but the case is similar.

He sits just 49th in WR ADP for this format, despite finishing WR26 last year.

Sutton makes for a nice reserve option.

Other Options

Mike Williams, Tyler Lockett

 

Round 13

Top Target: Trey Benson

Benson wins on upside, but he’ll likely require patience (unless/until James Conner gets hurt again).

Benson averaged 6.1 yards per carry and 11.2 per catch across two years at Florida State before landing with the Cardinals in Round 3.

Next Best: Ty Chandler

Chandler would be fine to take over Benson here but trails the Cardinals rookie in ceiling. The big takeaway here, though: Upside RB looks good.

Other options

Gus Edwards, Dalton Schultz, Mike Williams

 

Rounds 14-16

Top Targets: Upside + K + DST

Across these rounds, you should add one more upside play at whatever position makes sense and address the final two starting spots.

Try to target a kicker in a good offense.

As for D, we’ve added Trust Factor this year to help differentiate your options. That favors the DST units with more favorable season-opening matchups and downgrades those with poor matchups.

Why? Because you should target matchups more than trying to lean on a season-long starter at that position.

 

10-Team Draft Strategy for Pick 8, 9, or 10

Rounds 1 & 2

Top Target: Justin Jefferson & Derrick Henry

If you can kick off your draft from the end of the round with two players capable of leading their positions in scoring this year, then you should feel pretty good.

Jefferson has finished three straight years among the top five in non-PPR points per game and landed No. 1 in total points in 2022.

Henry led the format in total points in 2020 and then points per game in 2021 and 2022.

He slid to 13th in points per game last year but showed no underlying signs of performance decline.

Next Best: Jonathan Taylor & Derrick Henry

This is the only spot where I’ve used the same player in both the “top target” and “next best” slots.

I do so to emphasize not only Henry’s standing, but also the Draft War Room’s recommendation that you start RB-RB if Jefferson leaves the board before your first-round selection.

Even if Henry happens to go, you’ll likely see several more RBs rise.

ADP for this format says RBs will go fast in Round 2, while WR value will remain available through the 3-4 turn.

Other Options

Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua, A.J. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Garrett Wilson

 

Rounds 3 & 4

Top Targets: Mike Evans & De’Von Achane

Jalen Hurts factored into the initial plan here and would still be fine to consider. But current ADP says he'll leave the board just before your turn.

Whether Hurts remains available or not, getting your WR1 here looks good if you started with two RBs.

If you went WR-RB in the first two rounds, then any among Hurts, a RB, or another WR could work.

De’Von Achane Presents Exciting Upside

If you get here with two RBs already rostered, then a WR fits better as your second pick. If not, then chasing the ceiling with Achane looks good here.

If you’re willing to put up with weekly volatility, the payoff is the scoring spikes.

Achane delivered four top-5 weekly finishes among just nine games of 20+ snaps played as a rookie.

Expect more touches in Year 2. They could even come via WR-style reps.

Next Best: Drake London & Joe Mixon

This makes a fine turn for grabbing a WR and a RB. You can also consider selecting a pair of WRs if you opened RB-RB. None of the wideouts listed here is likely to get back to you in Round 5.

Mixon's a nice way to buy into the Houston offense, which finds its QB and top three WRs all priced high.

Other Options

Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, Josh Jacobs

 

Rounds 5 & 6

Top Targets: Tee Higgins & Joe Burrow

Higgins heads into his final Bengals season but remains the clear No. 2 target in an offense that let its WR3 (Tyler Boyd) walk in free agency.

Higgins ranked 17th and 11th in non-PPR points per game the last two years we got a healthy Burrow (2021 and 2022).

And his QB would make for a fine pairing around this turn. You don't need to address the position here. But the value lines up.

Next Best: Tank Dell & Dak Prescott

Malik Nabers appeared in this area the last time we did this, but the camp buzz since then will almost surely push him higher in your draft.

Dell figures to go third among Texans WRs in just about any draft. But the trio could finish the year in any order in fantasy scoring.

Prescott sits close to Burrow in 3D value, with a gap behind them to the next QBs.

Other Options

David Montgomery, James Conner, Amari Cooper, George Pickens, Rhamondre Stevenson, Calvin Ridley

 

Rounds 7 & 8

Top Targets: James Conner & Amari Cooper

Conner’s three Arizona seasons have found him fifth, 12th, and seventh among RBs in non-PPR points per game.

Perhaps he loses some work to rookie Trey Benson, but that potential’s baked into this draft position.

Another RB-WR split here gives you a chance to leave Round 8 with Hurts and your top three at both RB and WR – plus a fourth at whichever spot makes sense.

Next Best: Najee Harris & Terry McLaurin

Harris looks better in non-PPR than half- or full-PPR.

We’ll see exactly how new OC Arthur Smith splits work between Harris and Jaylen Warren. But Smith’s certainly been friendly to RB work across two stops.

His three years in Atlanta produced the NFL’s third most run-heavy offense by neutral pass rate. His two years as OC in Tennessee found the Titans second most run-heavy.

McLaurin gives you a team's clear WR1 at a WR3-4 price. He's a nice buy at this stage -- especially if rookie QB Jayden Daniels delivers on his promise.

Other Options

Jayden Reed, Raheem Mostert

 

Rounds 9 & 10

Top Targets: Jake Ferguson & Raheem Mostert

Ferguson’s availability this late looks like a key reason the Draft War Room didn’t make a TE your top recommendation earlier.

He ranked eighth among TEs in scoring for this format in his first starting turn – and Ferguson’s best outing (10-93-3) didn’t even come until the playoffs.

The TE ranked second among Cowboys in targets last year and could do so again.

Mostert – like Hopkins – presents some age risk. He’s also almost certain to regress from last year’s 21 total TDs.

But the RB’s market price more than bakes those risk factors in.

Next Best: Javonte Williams & Christian Watson

You can prioritize either of these guys over Mostert if you’d like. And Watson might pop ahead of the RBs if you get here light on WRs.

Williams easily led Denver’s backfield in 2023 despite limited effectiveness coming off his serious knee injury.

He generated buzz in training camp, with observers saying he looks much better than last year's version. His ADP hasn't adjusted much to that, though, making him an easy value.

Watson Just Has That One Thing

Watson merely needs to stay healthy, and he says they specifically diagnosed and worked on his hamstring issue this offseason.

When on the field, he has seen lead-receiver usage and produced efficiently on the yardage and TD fronts.

Other Options

Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown

 

Rounds 11 & 12

Top Targets: Xavier Worthy & Dallas Goedert

A Patrick Mahomes WR in the late rounds can’t be a bad bet. Even if Worthy goes quiet in his rookie year, you’ll be able to drop him for a more helpful option.

(Just don’t forget how Rashee Rice’s rookie-year usage picked up late. We’ll watch for similar signals.)

Waiting on your first TE makes drafting a second more sensible … but you also don’t need to do it.

Goedert presents a decent floor thanks to the strength of his offense. The ceiling’s not thrilling but would improve if either of the top two Eagles WRs goes down.

Next Best: Rome Odunze & Jameson Williams

Upside’s the theme of this duo.

Odunze won’t have an easy time earning target share with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen around. But he was the ninth overall pick and a high-volume target in college.

There’s a chance Odunze outperforms Allen right away.

Williams navigated a disappointing first two NFL seasons, but the Lions are saying all the right things about his progress this offseason. And a wary fantasy market could keep his ADP down.

Other options

Courtland Sutton, Keon Coleman

  

Rounds 13 & 14

Top Targets: Jared Goff & Mike Williams

Another backup QB option here, plus a different kind of upside case.

Williams brings proven NFL production but is coming off an ACL tear and assimilating to a new team for the first time in his career.

We’ll see how it goes, but this is plenty late enough to chase his TD upside.

Next Best: Trevor Lawrence & Gabe Davis

Lawrence carries upside well beyond his QB2 price tag. It'll rely on him improving what's been a poor TD rate. If he does that, he'll bring some pass-catchers along with him.

If you'd rather take rookie Brian Thomas Jr. over Davis, that's fine. Both carry plenty of upside ... no matter how you might feel about the way Davis scored in the past.

Other Options

Brian Thomas Jr., Ty Chandler

 

Rounds 15 & 16

Top Targets: K + DST

We still do full-season projections for these positions, but that’s not how you should draft them.

In most formats, you’ll want to cycle through defenses and kickers during the season to take advantage of good matchups and avoid bad ones. Very few options at either position score consistently.

We’ve found a way to weight your draft rankings to favor those defenses with better early matchups. So you can trust that we’re factoring that into your draft rankings.

Kicker is a little different in that you can do well by riding a kicker in a top offense. But that’s also a position not enough fantasy players look to stream. Just don’t go too hard after any kicker, and use our weekly kicker rankings in season to help guide your lineup setting.

 

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