Fantasy Football Players to Avoid

Don't Start Your Team with a Disadvantage

We’ve already laid out our top candidates to be the biggest busts of 2024. This group is a little different.

These six players won’t necessarily kill your season, especially those who sit lower in ADP. But they’re likely to set you back.

You need to target value in your redraft league, and these players fail to deliver that in the current draft market.

Beyond that similar thread, however, their cases differ quite a bit.

Here are six fantasy football players to avoid in your draft …

 

Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: QB

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud was awesome as a rookie, to the point that it almost feels foolish to doubt him in Year 2. But the market loves Houston’s second-year QB a little too much.

He sits fifth among QBs in current redraft ADP. That’s five spots higher than Stroud finished among QBs in points per game last season.

Of course, Stroud should continue improving – especially after the team added WR Stefon Diggs. But he faces a couple of key hurdles.

Stroud’s Scoring Challenges

Houston finished last season just 26th in neutral-situation pass rate. That’s gotta come up now that the Texans:

• know their new QB’s a stud
• traded for Diggs
• and paid up to re-sign TE Dalton Schultz.

But how much?

Texans OC Bobby Slowik learned under Kyle Shanahan. The mentor’s 49ers rank 30th in neutral pass rate since his arrival in 2017. They’ve ranked 20th or lower in pass attempts five of those seven years.

Stroud’s other challenge: a lack of rushing

The Houston QB ranked just 31st among QBs in rushing yards per game last year. Of the 12 QBs who beat him in total fantasy points, eight averaged more rushing yards per contest.

Six of the top seven QBs in 2022 fantasy points averaged more fantasy points per game than Stroud’s 2023 number – including all of the top 5.

It’s certainly possible for a QB to reach the top 5 without big rushing numbers. But it’s easier to get there if you’re running and passing.

Without the rushing, the passing needs to be even stronger.

 

Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: RB

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

In case you missed Chubb’s Week 2 injury last season, it was pretty brutal.

He needed a pair of surgeries to repair the ACL, MCL, meniscus, and medial capsule in his left knee. The second surgery occurred in November, meaning he’ll be just 10 months removed at the start of this season.

The veteran has yet to join his team on the practice field. Reports on his recovery and rehab have been positive, including publicized squat videos and sprints on the side field.

But GM Andrew Berry said early in training camp that Chubb had “a little way to go” still in his rehab.

Risk High Even at Depressed ADP

Of course, the market isn’t drafting Chubb anywhere near where it would if he were fully healthy.

As of this writing, here’s where he sits in ADP across formats:

• Non-PPR: RB28
• Half-PPR: RB28
• PPR: RB27
• Best ball: RB40

There’s little risk to mixing Chubb in some at that RB40 price, just in case they’re slow-playing his return and he’s anything close to normal Chubb by the season’s second half.

But he sits three rounds earlier by redraft ADP, ahead of players (in PPR) such as …

• Panthers RB Jonathon Brooks
• Broncos RB Javonte Williams
• Both Bengals RBs
• Both Commanders RBs
• Steelers RB Jaylen Warren
• Not to mention guys from other positions

Does Contract Point to Week 1 Return?

Jack Duffin of The Orange and Brown Report (Browns blog) says he expects Chubb to be “a full go” by Week 1 because the “vast majority” of incentives in the adjusted contract Chubb signed this offseason “are gone” if the RB starts the year on PUP.

Chubb’s agents surely hoped (planned?) to have the veteran on the field by the start of the season in negotiating that deal. But the sides came to agreement on April 11. There’s no way either side knew at that point whether Chubb’s knee would be ready five months later.

And although contract incentives would likely motivate the player to return, the team obviously wouldn’t have incentive to rush a less-than-ready Chubb onto the field.

More Questions Than Answers

The best-case scenario for Chubb’s fantasy season would obviously have him active for Week 1.

Even in that circumstance, though, how much work will Chubb get early in the year? We probably won’t know by draft time – and quite possibly not even by the opener.

And even a full-strength Chubb cedes receiving work. He has averaged just 1.5 receptions per game since 2020, after hitting a career high 2.3 per game in 2019 – his first full season as starter.

Forty-four RBs averaged more than 1.5 catches per game last season.

 

Devin Singletary, New York Giants

The Giants paid this guy $5.5 million a year on a three-year deal after watching Saquon Barkley walk for a division rival.

They sport absolutely no proven RB talent behind him. Fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy is competing for the No. 2 spot with 2023 fifth-rounder Eric Gray and Dante Miller, whom I didn’t know existed until I started working on this article.

Miller’s reportedly impressing in camp. But he’s also a 25-year-old who logged just 258 carries and 20 receptions across three seasons at Columbia.

Gray touched the ball just 23 times as a rookie in a shallow 2023 Giants backfield.

Why You Still Shouldn’t Buy Singletary

The weak depth chart behind Singletary obviously doesn’t hurt his chances of getting touches. But it also doesn’t make him a better player.

Across five seasons since arriving as a third-round pick in Buffalo, Singletary has averaged just 11.4 carries and 2.2 receptions per game.

He carried 12.6 times as a 2019 rookie, then fell short of that each of the next three seasons – with Giants HC Brian Daboll as his OC 2019-2021.

Singletary’s seasonal rankings in PPR points per game:

• 2019: RB27
• 2020: RB44
• 2021: RB31
• 2022: RB28
• 2023: RB40

Here’s how his offenses ranked in scoring and yards:

Last year’s Giants ranked 30th in scoring and 29th in yards … before downgrading from Barkley to Singletary as lead RB.

Where’s the Upside?

Singletary’s ADP sits no higher than RB33 in any format. So he’s certainly not killing your fantasy team if you draft him and he doesn’t pan out.

But you shouldn’t be chasing floor in Round 10+ (where he’s going). You want ceiling. That’s the whole reason our Draft War Room automatically flips to Upside Mode at the midway point of your draft.

Can Singletary outscore a low-RB3 ADP? Sure. Is he going to be a difference maker, though? Probably not.

We’re talking about a proven limited producer in what was one of the league’s worst offenses last season.

Better to just wait and stash Tracy, if you want a Giants RB (for some reason).

 

Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: WR

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

Pittman sits at WR21 across redraft formats vs. WR24 in best ball ADP. That already points to the most active draft market to this part of the year liking him less.

What’s the problem? Primarily Anthony Richardson.

Uncertain Passing Outlook

We’re all excited about the second-year QB for fantasy, but that’s not because of a spectacular passing record.

Richardson is a big, speedy, bruising runner who completed just 54.7% of his career passes in college – and attempted only 393 of them. Among 121 FBS QBs with 200+ dropbacks in 2022, Richardson ranked 113th in Pro Football Focus’ adjusted completion rate.

Sure, he’s got a tremendous arm, a great deep ball, and plenty of potential. But we don’t yet know how consistent a passer he’ll be after getting just two full games from Richardson as a rookie.

Uncertain Target Total

Pittman seems like a strong bet for target volume after ranking fourth among WRs in target share last year. But he checked in just 16th the year before.

I have no doubt Pittman will lead the Colts in targets again (assuming he’s healthy, of course), but they’d probably like to siphon a bit of that share away for second-year WR Josh Downs, rookie WR Adonai Mitchell, and/or third-year WR Alec Pierce.

Indy also tallied the league’s fourth-lowest RB target share last year, a season in which Jonathan Taylor made just seven starts.

A healthy Taylor figures to direct more work to the backfield – both receiving and rushing. Indy has ranked 11th or higher in rushing attempts in three of his four pro seasons.

Uncertain Upside

The final point here is Pittman himself. He’s fine but hasn’t done anything to suggest he’s a special talent just waiting for a QB to unlock a special ceiling.

Each of his four seasons has found Pittman ranking significantly lower in PPR points per game than he did in targets:

Pittman’s career-best PFF receiving grade last season tied him for a mere 22nd at the position.

Drafting him at his Round 3 ADP means potentially selecting the Colt over eight other WRs we have ranked ahead of him in PPR.

  

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers

This rookie’s WR41-42 ADP across formats has been a classic case of “who else is going to get the ball?” … and that’s simply not a good driver of fantasy outlooks.

Situation Presents Obvious Opportunity

Clearly the Chargers need players to soak up targets after they traded WR Keenan Allen and released WR Mike Williams. And no one’s excited about Joshua Palmer, D.J. Chark, or Quentin Johnston.

But Palmer – in his fourth season – brings plenty of experience with QB Justin Herbert and averaged a solid 4.2 receptions per game over the past two years, despite sharing the field with Allen and Williams.

He could easily lead this squad in targets and sits four rounds behind McConkey in ADP.

How Good is the Rookie?

McConkey has garnered plenty of praise in team workouts since the Chargers drafted him in Round 2. But that has made it easy to overlook his 'meh' college career.

McConkey never led his Georgia team in receptions or yards. He didn’t rank among the Bulldogs’ top two in routes in any of the nine games he played last year. And his career 17.8% Dominator Rating – which measures a player’s share of team yardage and TDs – rated just 19th percentile for his position, according to Player Profiler.

Can we really count on that guy to immediately lead an NFL receiving group, even a lackluster unit like L.A.’s?

Run-Heavy Offense Doesn’t Help

McConkey looks poised to immediately lead the Chargers in slot work. But that doesn’t guarantee him a spot on the field in two-WR alignments. And the Jim Harbaugh-Greg Roman Chargers figure to run plenty of those while keeping loads of plays on the ground.

The two last worked together for the 2011-14 49ers. Those four offenses ranked no higher than 29th in pass attempts or 27th in neutral pass rate.

Top all that with a right foot injury that’s sapping QB Justin Herbert of preseason prep time, and it just seems like a better idea to not count on anything strong from this passing game.

 

Fantasy Football Players to Avoid: Tight End

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

LaPorta just gave us one of the best rookie TE seasons of all-time. Are we just calling that a fluke by including him on this list?

Of course not.

This inclusion – even more so than the rest of the players on this list – is all about market and opportunity cost.

Drafting LaPorta Means Passing on Potential Studs

LaPorta has been leading TEs in ADP throughout draft season, and it makes sense. He led the position in scoring as a rookie.

Of course, he did trail Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson in PPR points per game – and benefited from catching four more TD passes than any other TE. That 11.6% TD rate might be tough to repeat.

But the greater risk here lies in selecting LaPorta over other positions.

By current redraft ADP, taking the first TE means passing on top-12 options at RB and WR. You’re taking him over players such as Travis Etienne, Isaiah Pacheco, Derrick Henry, Jaylen Waddle, and Cooper Kupp.

The primary question here isn’t LaPorta vs. Kelce, McBride, and others. It’s do you want LaPorta around the 2-3 turn plus whatever RBs and WRs make it back to you later?

Or do you want a higher-level RB/WR plus Mark Andrews later, Evan Engram later than that, or even later options such as Jake Ferguson, David Njoku, or Pat Freiermuth?

Our numbers heavily favor passing on the top TE.

 

Who SHOULD You Draft?

We just ran through some fantasy football players to avoid. So who should you target instead?

Well, we answer that in a lot of different ways -- such as in the Draft Guide video below.

Your best answer, however, will come from your custom-fit Draft War Room.

Sync yours today.