Best Superflex Draft Strategy for 2024 | Fantasy Football

Superflex Strategies … A Cautionary Tale

I’ve had quite a bit of success winning Superflex money leagues in recent years. But the hard truth is my journey to get here was rough.

You see, I used to think your first pick had to be a QB. And that you should grab a second QB soon thereafter.

But here’s a spoiler: That’s potentially a season-crippling mistake ...

The allure of securing top QBs early presents risks such as:

• Hurting your overall chances of winning because you’re neglecting other positions.
  
  - AND-

• Diminishing returns on QB scoring (that might surprise you, but keep reading …)

Dodge costly mistakes and learn everything you need to know to crush your superflex draft:

1. Don’t Overvalue QBs in Superflex

Yeah, “overvaluing” QBs in Superflex leagues … It might sound completely off base since every damn Superflex draft starts immediately with a run on QBs.

But stick to the facts and science, and here’s what you get:

The Hidden Dangers of Early QB Obsession

While it's tempting to prioritize QBs in the first two rounds, doing so could compromise your overall team strength.

Just look at the graph below:

Each line represents the top 24 QB scorers for a season from 2017 through 2023. We’re using the top 24 because that assumes the starting threshold for a 12-team league.

There are some variations between years. And you can see a few spots where the scoring steeply dropped.

But you can also see a flattening of the lines as you move through the position …

The Math Doesn’t Lie

Ultimately, there’s a marginal scoring difference among QBs as the draft progresses. So a Round 1 OR Round 2 QB makes sense – if one presents value based on well-researched projections and superflex ADP. But a QB-QB start to your draft is typically suboptimal, no matter where you’re picking.

Benefit From a QB 'Run'

A “run” is when several guys at the same position get drafted in close succession. If a QB run starts in a Superflex draft, it can become a stampede. (Check out the image below). You begin to feel like you need to get one before they’re gone. That’s a mistake. When QBs get overdrafted, use that opportunity to stock up at RB or WR. We’ll take a deeper look in the next section …

When the rest of your league goes QB-crazy, stay patient.

2. Target RB/WR/TE During The Early QB Run

This one flows naturally from Strategy #1 …

Targeting RBs, WRs, and TEs during a QB run in Superflex drafts is a strategy grounded in both the science of fantasy football … plus the logic of supply and demand. Let's break down why focusing on non-QB positions can be a winning strategy when others prioritize QBs early in the draft.

Take Advantage of Supply-and-Demand Dynamics

The pool of truly elite RBs, WRs, and TEs is smaller compared to the broader availability of serviceable QBs. Especially in leagues where passing TDs are less than 6 points. During a QB run, the demand for QBs surges, artificially inflating their value and often leading to managers reaching for QBs earlier than true value warrants. This creates an opportunity for you to acquire top-tier talent at other positions.

Relative Point Differential Is Your Guide

The point differential between the top performers and average performers at RB, WR, and TE is often larger than at QB once you’ve gotten past the top 4-5 QBs. That’s especially true in PPR leagues, where a pass-catching RB will distinguish his value over, say, a mid-tier QB. Securing these high-scoring non-QBs can give you a weekly advantage.

Build Roster Depth and Trade Flexibility

By focusing on RBs, WRs, and TEs early, you can build depth in positions that are often more prone to injuries. That gives you the advantage of having high-quality backups. Also, having a roster stocked with high-performing non-QBs gives you valuable trade chips to negotiate from a position of strength, allowing you to improve your QB situation or address other needs later in the season.

Maximizing Your Late-Round Picks

There’s often great QB value in the middle-to-late rounds of a draft. Managers who focus on securing elite talent at RB, WR, and TE can still draft capable QBs later, maximizing the overall value of their draft picks. More on this topic later …

Be a Strategic Contrarian

Taking a contrarian approach and focusing on non-QB positions during a QB run can also provide a psychological advantage. It disrupts the draft flow and can actually slow down the QB run. That can mean more QB value for you in the middle rounds.

3. How Many QBs Should You Draft?

There’s no one-size-fits-all solution … but I lean toward rostering four QBs.

When it comes to how many QBs you should roster, consider:

• Your League Size
  If you’re in a smaller league – say, 10 teams – then there’s room for each team to roster 3 starting QBs. In larger leagues, the QB pool is spread thinner, increasing the value of holding an extra QB or two.

• Number of Bench Spots
  A larger bench provides the luxury to stock up on QBs without sacrificing depth at other positions. Take advantage.

• My Experience Says …
  Assume a typical 12-team superflex league. Drafting four QBs has often been my sweet spot. This approach provides you at least two starters. The other two spots can include a lower-level starter or 1-2 backups.

So, yeah – stash a fourth QB if your roster size allows you to stock up.

Here’s the payoff for taking that No. 4 QB: 

• Flexibility for Bye Weeks and Injuries
  Having multiple QB options gives you a better shot at covering bye weeks or long-term injuries.

• Matchup Plays
  With more QBs at your disposal, you can play matchups, choosing your starters based on their opponents’ defensive weaknesses.

• Trade Leverage
  QBs are a premium in Superflex leagues. Holding an extra QB gives you a valuable trade chip to negotiate with teams in need of a better option.

4. Learn to Uncover Sleeper QBs Like An Expert

So if you’re going to roster four QBs, you’ll have to grab a sleeper or two…

And drafting a Superflex sleeper QB doesn’t just happen. It takes a methodical approach, one in which you’re considering all relevant information.

Use These 6 Guidelines to Scout Sleeper QBs

These are the guidelines I’ve used with quite a bit of success. See what you think:

1. Know Your Scoring Settings

Know how your league's scoring system affects QB performance. Leagues that reward 4 points vs. 6 points for passing TDs, or penalize less for INTs, will change a QB's value.

2. Factor In Historical Production

Remember, we’re hunting for a sleeper QB, so their historical production isn’t likely to “wow!” you. But it does have to catch your eye in some way. Maybe they had a strong four-game run prior to an injury the year before. Or maybe their completion percentage skyrocketed the last 5 games of last season. Find something that catches your attention about their production.

3. Learn Advanced Stats

You don’t need an MIT degree to figure out TD rate (TDs divided by attempts) or yards per attempt (yards divided by attempts). Consider where a player finished in those categories last year and position them vs. their historical production and league average. Do the same with Expected Fantasy Points. This shows a player’s fantasy production, taking into account what they should have scored based on usage. For example: In 2022, Geno Smith scored 1.5 PPG over expected. Couple that number with his career arc, and it’s no surprise he crashed down to earth in 2023.

4. Account for QB Rushing

A QB with the ability to gain yards and score TDs on the ground presents additional value. Think Jalen Hurts from 2023. He racked up 150.5 fantasy points from rushing yards and TDs alone.

5. Break Down Offensive Scheme

Analyzing offensive talent and scheme is a big deal. Evaluate the returning roster while considering changes via free agency and the draft. In general, you want quarterbacks in more pass-heavy offenses, but don’t simply discard low-volume passers. Consider Brock Purdy, fantasy’s QB6 from last year. He averaged only 28 passes per game.

6. Utilize Age and Development Curves

Younger QBs have a higher theoretical upside due to potential development and long-term starting roles (for dynasty). Meanwhile, experienced veterans often provide a reliable, known quantity. Balancing potential with proven performance can stabilize your roster.

5. Find the Backup QB Who Is Likely to Start Soon

Let’s look back at 2023 to see how backups altered the fantasy landscape…

• Joe Flacco … in 2023?!
  Flacco signed with the Browns on December 14. Yet he posted four straight top-10 fantasy finishes from Week 14 to Week 17. Let him serve as a reminder that useful QBs will come from unexpected sources.

• Other Backups Flourished
  Think Josh Dobbs (in Arizona and Minnesota) or Jake Browning. In total, backup QBs accounted for 29 top-10 fantasy finishes – 42 inside the top 15. Some of these guys went in the later rounds of drafts. Most were undrafted and available on waiver wires.

Backup QB Draft Strategies

Beat your competition to the next difference-making backup by:

Monitoring Rookie Situations

Last year, Tennessee used the 33rd overall pick on Will Levis. Common sense said he’d see the field eventually, given the draft capital investment and Ryan Tannehill’s expiring contract. Well, Tannehill held the starting gig until mid-season, when an injury opened the door for Levis to start. The rookie didn’t become a fantasy hero. But he tallied five top-20 finishes. That’s useful in superflex. And it shows the rewards you can gain by stashing a QB.

Reading Tea Leaves

Follow local beat writers and national reporters for team scoops. Training-camp insights are especially valuable for tightly contested QB competitions. Imagine taking shots on a cheap Geno Smith in summer 2022. Throughout that time, the drumbeat out of Seattle suggested Smith would start. Yet HC Pete Carroll didn’t name him the Week 1 starter (over Drew Lock) until August 26. Forward-looking fantasy managers enjoyed a stunning QB5 fantasy season.

Prioritizing Rushing

You know the importance of QB rushing. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts just led the position in both rushing fantasy points and overall fantasy points. Eight of the top 10 QBs notched at least 2 rushing TDs, while seven of the 10 hit 200 rushing yards. There will be exceptions (like Joe Flacco). But in general, you’ll want to stash a QB with some rushing chops. Review past production, offensive philosophy, and stats such as scramble rate and designed rush attempts to find potential difference-makers.

6. Use Trade Calculators to Leverage Value

Trade calculators are particularly crucial in Superflex leagues for several reasons – especially during trade negotiations. That’s because your potential trade partner might overvalue his QB… or undervalue your non-QB. I’ve had this happen to me more than once.

Here's how and why trade analyzers prove indispensable:

You Get Accurate QB Valuation

In Superflex leagues, QBs certainly see elevated value. But some owners will fixate and overstate a QB’s value. Trade calculators help accurately assess a QB’s increased value, ensuring that trades involving QBs are fair and reflect their true worth in your league format.

Balanced Trade Proposals

Trade calculators provide an objective analysis of player values and potential trade outcomes. So they remove personal bias and emotional attachment from the equation. This objectivity is key to ensuring that trade proposals are balanced and beneficial to both parties involved.

Informed Decision Making

By using a trade calculator, you make more informed decisions that align with your team's strategic needs and long-term goals. This is particularly important in dynasty or keeper formats, where the impact of a trade can be felt for multiple seasons.

Negotiation Leverage

Everyone should embrace evidence-based negotiating. When you’re negotiating trades, a trade calculator can serve as a valuable tool to back up your proposals with data. This evidence-based approach can lend credibility to your arguments and help sway negotiations in your favor.

Customization for League Specifics

This one is huge! Many trade calculators allow for customization based on your league's scoring settings and roster requirements. This customization ensures that the calculator's valuations are as relevant and accurate as possible for your particular Superflex league.

7. Mock Draft Every Possible Scenario

Superflex drafts are arguably the most difficult of all formats. That’s largely because of the unpredictability of QB runs … and the way they push value at other positions further down the board.

That’s why I mock draft more for my superflex leagues than for any other format.

Here's why mock draft simulators are important for your league prep:

Understanding Draft Trends and Value Shifts

Mock drafts simulate real drafting experiences, allowing you to see how the QB-value increase affects drafting. Observing when QBs start coming off the board helps you adjust your strategy to ensure you don't miss out on top-tier options.

Strategy Testing and Refinement

They provide a risk-free environment to test different draft strategies (e.g., drafting a QB early vs. waiting). You can see the outcomes of various approaches and refine your strategy based on results, helping you develop a more flexible and responsive draft plan.

Adapting to Positional Scarcity

By participating in mock drafts, you gain insights into positional scarcity, particularly for quarterbacks. This understanding helps you prioritize your draft picks to ensure a balanced and competitive team.

Familiarization with Player ADP (Average Draft Position)

Simulators help you become familiar with the ADP of players, especially QBs, in Superflex formats. Knowing where players typically get drafted allows you to identify potential value picks and sleepers, improving your drafting efficiency.

Identifying Late-Round Gems and Early-Round Busts

Mock drafts expose you to a wider range of players, including potential late-round gems and early busts. This enhances your overall player knowledge and draft preparedness.

8. Leverage Cutting-Edge Draft Technology

The Superflex draft strategies you just learned about are game-changing. Real expert, next-level stuff.

Now you might be wondering, “How can I possibly execute all these strategies at crunch time – in the heat of my draft?”

We’ve got two powerful – yet user-friendly – tools that will get you to that next level. And they’re integrated to work together automatically …

Live-Draft Sync & The Draft War Room (DWR)

Draft Sharks has combined these two tools to work in tandem. Their combined effect gives you the most powerful Superflex draft experience on the planet. Check it out …

Live-Draft Sync

First, the live-draft sync pairs seamlessly with your league host site. During your draft, it automatically removes players as they’re selected. As that happens, a powerful software program runs an algorithm to account for factors such as:

• our award-winning projections
• ADP
• position scarcity
• breakout potential
• injury risk
• your league’s settings and scoring rules

Draft War Room

Enter the DWR. The net effect of utilizing the live-draft sync and the DWR is this: You get suggested player picks at every turn. And those picks aren’t guesswork. They’re created in real time by the DWR's powerful algorithm.