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Gus Edwards - Fantasy Points Outlook

Basic StatsGus Edwards's Basic Stats

Gus Edwards
ADP: 11.4
Bye: 5
Experience: 6
Age: 29.1
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 238
40 Time: 4.57

SPARQx (Rank): 111.10 (53%)
Burst Score (Rank): 120.20 (59%)
Agility Score (Rank): 11.46 (45%)
Three Cone Drill (Rank): 7.22

Gus Edwards's Weekly Outlook

Week 1 Projections
Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
50.9 0.42 0.5 4.5 0.01 7.7
Weekly Writeup

Rest Of Way Outlook

Rush Yds Rush TDs Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs Fantasy Pts
26.4 0.1 0.5 3.5 0 3.8

Gus Edwards's 2024 Projections & Outlook

Scoring

#40 Running Back

101.2 Projected Points

ADP Rush Atts Rush Yds Rush TDs 100 Fum Rec Rec Yds Rec TDs
11.4 155.8 652 5.46 0 1.7 6.6 56.6 0.16

3D Projections DS 3D Projections

Basic StatsGus Edwards's Preseason Player Analysis

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Bottom Line

Edwards is coming off the most productive season of his NFL career. But he also posted personal worsts in most efficiency metrics. He turned 29 in April and is certainly at risk for further decline this year.

The good news is that Edwards joins a Chargers squad with a run-loving coaching staff and wide-open backfield. He’ll battle J.K. Dobbins and rookie Kimani Vidal for snaps and touches.

We’d consider Edwards the favorite to open the season as the lead back, although he’s not a great bet to hold on to that title for the entire year.

What We Learned Last Year

  • Edwards set career highs last year with:
    • 198 carries
    • 810 rushing yards
    • 13 rushing TDs
  • But he set career lows with:
    • 4.1 yards per carry
    • 2.71 yards after contact per carry
    • 74.6 Pro Football Focus rushing grade
  • Among 49 RBs with 90+ carries last season, Edwards ranked:
    • 24th in yards per carry
    • 36th in yards after contact per carry
    • 30th in PFF rushing grade
  • He fared much better in success rate, which measures whether a run was successful based on down and distance. Edwards ranked eighth among 49 qualifiers in that metric.
  • He was excellent near the goal line, converting 12 of 19 carries inside the five-yard line into TDs.
  • Edwards set a career high in catches last year … with 12. He’s never been a factor in the passing game, totaling just 30 catches across five NFL seasons.

What to Expect in 2024

  • Edwards hit free agency this offseason and inked a two-year, $6.5 million deal with the Chargers. His $3.25 million average annual salary ranks 24th among RBs.
  • Edwards joins a new-look Chargers backfield alongside fellow 2024 additions J.K. Dobbins and Kimani Vidal.
    • Dobbins sports a career 5.8 yards-per-carry average but has been limited to just nine games over the last three seasons. He’s currently working back from a torn Achilles suffered last September. Dobbins signed a one-year, $1.6 million deal with the Chargers with only $50K guaranteed.
    • Los Angeles added Vidal in Round 6 of this spring’s draft. He led Troy in rushing in all four of his seasons on campus, including 2,793 rushing yards over the last two years. Vidal also totaled 92 career catches. The 213-pounder earned an 8.88 Relative Athletic Score at the Combine.
  • The Chargers have a brand new coaching staff led by HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. Both guys have long histories of run-heavy offenses. That includes four seasons spent together in San Francisco from 2011 to 2014. Here’s where those teams ranked in rush attempts and rush rate:
    • 2011 - 3rd, 3rd
    • 2012 - 7th, 3rd
    • 2013 - 3rd, 2nd
    • 2014 - 9th, 6th
  • It’s worth noting that dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick started half of the 2012 season and all of the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That certainly skewed the 49ers toward the run.
  • Those 49ers RB rooms were not nearly as productive as you’d think. Here’s where those teams ranked in total RB PPR points:
    • 2011 - 20th
    • 2012 - 18th
    • 2013 - 18th
    • 2014 - 29th
  • That was largely because the RBs didn’t do much in the passing game. Here’s where the 49ers’ RBs ranked in total receptions:
    • 2011 - 30th
    • 2012 - 25th
    • 2013 - 29th
    • 2014 - 31st
  • That’s less of a concern for Edwards, who wouldn’t have projected to do much in the passing game anyway.
  • The 2023 Chargers ranked:
    • 32nd in Pro Football Focus run-blocking grades
    • 30th in adjusted line yards
  • The team spent the fifth overall pick of this year’s draft on OT Joe Alt. He ranked second among 278 qualifying OTs in Pro Football Focus’ 2023 run-blocking grades.
  • L.A. also signed free-agent Bradley Bozeman, who projects to start at C. He ranked 17th among 32 qualifiers in PFF run-blocking grades last year.
  • Edwards turned 29 in April. That’s danger zone for RBs, with our aging-curve data saying to expect just 70-75% of peak production from Edwards this season.

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J.K. Dobbins, RB LAC

9:11pm EDT 4/29/24

J.K. Dobbins says he's 100% recovered from Achilles injury

Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins said Monday that he's 100% recovered from the torn Achilles he suffered last September. "It was like a walk in the park, it was like a sprained ankle," Dobbins said. "It was very easy, because I had the knee [injury] -- the knee was pretty hard. The Achilles was, I would say, easy, just because that's my mentality. It was pretty easy to me." We'll file this under "believe-it-when-we-see-it." Full health is not the same as full effectiveness. RB Cam Akers quickly made it back from an Achilles injury but hasn't been the same runner since. Dobbins still isn't a player to invest heavily in at this point. But we'll be keeping a close eye on him this spring and summer. The Chargers' backfield will be a key situation for fantasy owners to monitor, with Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and rookie Kimani Vidal duking it out for touches.

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The Chargers added Troy RB Kimani Vidal in Round 6 of the NFL Draft. Despite offers from LSU and South Carolina, the Georgia native took his talents to the Sun Belt Conference. Vidal averaged 11.2 carries per game as a true freshman and led the team in rushing – something he’d do in all four seasons. But his workloads really picked up from 2022-2023 for the run-heavy Trojans. In fact, Vidal was among the busiest college RBs with 526 carries (plus 44 catches) over that stretch. He held up well, too, missing only one game due to injury in his career. At nearly 5’8, 213 pounds, Vidal has bowling ball size and runs with matching intensity. Per The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, the 22-year-old’s 94 missed tackles forced ranked second in the FBS last season. He’s not special out of the backfield, but Vidal’s tape shows a capable receiver with more pass protection refinement than the average rookie. He lands in a nice spot under run-loving HC Jim Harbaugh in a relatively wide-open backfield alongside J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. It shouldn’t be considered a surprise if Vidal pushes for snaps in 2024.

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Former Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins plans to sign a one-year contract with the Chargers, according to multiple reports. This comes after Dobbins visited several teams. He lands with the franchise that already signed his former teammate Gus Edwards. We'll see about the specific terms of Dobbins' deal, but Edwards landed a two-year pact worth $6.5 million total, with $3.375 million in guarantees. We'll bet that Dobbins gets significantly less coming off his September Achilles' tear (and checkered injury history). The former second-round pick will be interesting to watch this summer, especially in a backfield that could present open competition for touches. But Edwards stands as the better bet for work right now. And we'd bet on the Chargers adding a RB in the draft. For now, don't let Chargers RBs factor heavily into your draft plans -- despite their modest best ball ADP numbers.

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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that the Chargers have agreed to a two-year deal with former Ravens RB Gus Edwards. There are several interesting points here: 1) The quick signing points to the Chargers specifically targeting Edwards. 2) New Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh should be fairly familiar with Edwards, who has played all his NFL seasons to date under HC John Harbaugh. 3) There's plenty of available opportunity. There's been no indication the Chargers plan to bring back Austin Ekeler (though we'll see) to what was one of the league's worst backfields in 2023. Harbaugh and new OC Greg Roman, meanwhile, bring run-heavy backgrounds. You shouldn't get excited about Edwards. But he makes plenty of sense later in best ball drafts. Just beware of him flying up the ADP board in the wake of this signing. Check our best ball rankings to see where Edwards lands.

View all Gus Edwards Shark Bites »

RB Gus Edwards' contract with the Ravens voided on Monday, setting him up to hit free agency next month. Edwards led Ravens RBs and set career highs last year with 198 carries, 810 yards, and 13 TDs. His 4.1 yards per carry was a career low, although Edwards still ranked a respectable 20th out of 49 qualifying RBs in NFL Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt. Edwards turns 29 in April and offers next to nothing in the passing game. But he's still capable of helping as a between-the-tackles and short-yardage back. We'll see where he lands in free agency. The Ravens' RB depth chart, meanwhile, is topped by a couple of guys recovering from serious injuries in J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported recently that Baltimore could target a RB "with pedigree" in free agency. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, and D'Andre Swift highlight the free-agent RB class.

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Dynasty Overview View RB Dynasty Rankings »

Gus Edwards, RB LAC
Dynasty MVP 50.5
Position Rank #89 RB
3yr Projection
5yr Projection
10yr Projection
173
258
422
Dynasty Write-up
Edwards popped off for 198-810-13 across an entire, 17-game season. Of course, J.K. Dobbins' season-ending injury paved the way for a boost in opportunity. Edwards, 29, has a chance to remain a strong TD producer under HC John Harbaugh.
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